CHAVEZ ACCUSES USG OF SECESSIONIST PLOT - AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000625 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT FOR USAID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ ACCUSES USG OF SECESSIONIST PLOT - AGAIN REF: LA PAZ 001044 CARACAS 00000625 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT RICHARD DOWNES, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. President Chavez accused the USG of plotting with the Venezuelan opposition to promote secessionism in western Venezuela during his May 4 "Alo, Presidente" television program. Chavez explicitly linked the Santa Cruz autonomy referendum in Bolivia to the November state and local elections in Venezuela, baldly asserting that the opposition intends to promote similar referenda after winning governorships in western states. Opposition Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales publicly rejected Chavez' accusation. Chavez' latest assertion comes after repeated public statements that opposition victories in key Venezuelan states would be tantamount to "war" in Venezuela. Chavez' latest rhetorical outburst is clearly motivated by real concerns about his new party's prospects in state and local polling and his ally President Evo Morales' future in Bolivia. Local reporting of Chavez' accusations was dismissive in the independent press and ran on the inside pages of the daily press. End Summary. -------------- The "Half Moon" Plot -------------- ¶2. (SBU) During his May 4 television broadcast of "Alo, Presidente," President Chavez accused the USG of backing the autonomy referendum in Santa Cruz Department in Bolivia and asserted without presenting any details that the USG is working with opposition parties on a similar effort in Venezuela. Drawing a "half moon" on a Venezuelan map around the western states of Zulia, Merida, Tachira, Barinas, and Apure, Chavez asserted that the opposition intends to try to win governorships in those states to "try to open a secessionist movement." Chavez exhorted his supporters to maintain unity as a "vaccination" against domestic separatism. Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales publicly dismissed Chavez' accusation. ¶3. (SBU) Chavez' unsubstantiated allegations about USG-backed opposition separatism come on top of previous warnings of potential political violence. Since losing the December 2007 constitutional referendum, Chavez has repeatedly told his supporters that his new United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) is in danger of losing key state and local elections in November 2008. Chavez has specifically suggested in his 2008 stump speeches that opposition victories in the more densely populated coastal states and in the Caracas municipalities would trigger internal conflict. -------------- The Electoral Backdrop -------------- ¶4. (C) Chavez' allegations come against a backdrop in which opposition parties are optimistic that they can make electoral gains in state and local elections in November. There are presently only two opposition governors in Venezuela's 23 states (four, if you count Podemos' two governors). Some opposition leaders now argue that their parties may win up to 12 governorships, if they succeed in agreeing on consensus candidates. (Note: Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) Secretary General Gerardo Blyde told us May 5 that realistically the opposition is likely to win six or so governorships. Primero Justicia (PJ) Mayor of Baruta Enrique Capriles Radonski offered the same estimate during a separate May 5 meeting. End Note). ¶5. (C) A PSUV National Assembly member Francisco Torrealba, who was on Chavez' presidential re-election national committee in 2006, told us May 6 that he did not yet feel "comfortable" with the PSUV's prospects in the upcoming state and local elections. Torrealba said internal party organizational problems, lack of party discipline, and divisions among party members are undermining the PSUV's ability to win in several states. He also noted that the PSUV has yet to resolve how to coordinate candidacies with allied parties such as Patria Para Todos (PPT) and the Communist Party (PCV). A March Datanalisis study of recent elections notes that the opposition has strong possibilities of winning elections in four states and moderate possibilities in six more. -------------- CARACAS 00000625 002.2 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Chavez frequently invents an external threat (principally the U.S. "empire") to try to unite and motivate his supporters in the run-up to elections. Moreover, government accusations that the USG is promoting secessionism in Venezuela are not new. BRV officials have repeatedly suggested without evidence that the USG and Zulia Governor Rosales are fostering an independence movement in oil-rich Zulia. In reality, while there are strong advocates within the opposition for decentralization, no one is espousing secessionism or autonomy referenda. Chavez and other government officials are now embellishing their own unsubstantiated conspiracy theory, explicitly linking it to the recent autonomy referendum in Bolivia as well as Kosovo's recent independence. Local independent media, however, are giving scant and dismissive attention to Chavez' latest outburst. DUDDY