CHAVEZ HIGHLIGHTS COLOMBIAN HOSTAGE RELEASE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000062

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ HIGHLIGHTS COLOMBIAN HOSTAGE RELEASE,
BLAMES OTHERS FOR HIS GOVERNMENTS FAILURES

REF: A. CARACAS 15

B. CARACAS 47

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. Chavez used numerous events over the January
11-13 weekend to claim credit for the Colombian hostage
release, urge international understanding for the FARC and to
blame others, including the USG, for the failure of earlier
efforts to secure release of the hostages. He also
acknowledged the shortcomings of his own administration in
its handling of breadbasket issues such as crime, food
shortages and inflation. During his state-of-the-union
address January 11, Chavez urged the international community
to cease classifying the FARC and ELN as terrorist
organizations. He also floated the possibility of initiating
a recall referendum on his presidency combined with another
constitutional referendum to permit him to be re-elected when
his current term expires. During the opening congress of his
new unified party, he called on his supporters to focus on
winning the November 2008 state and local elections and on
his ministers to address domestic problems. His attempts to
distance himself from the failures of his own government and
to blame others, including the USG, has proven a successful
strategy in the past. This and his reshuffling of his
cabinet without major new names signal a continuation of
previous policies, albeit perhaps at a slower pace, as well
as an attempt to rebuild his base following the December 2
failure of his constitutional amendments. End Summary.

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Chavez: FARC, ELN Not Terrorists
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2. (SBU) The Ambassador, with most of the rest of the
diplomatic corps, attended President Chavez's four-hour
state-of-the-union address on January 11 at the National
Assembly, where Chavez initially focused on the Venezuela-led
January 10 recovery of two Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia (FARC) hostages and his proposal to achieve peace in
Colombia. He called on Latin American and European countries
to remove the FARC and the National Liberation Army (ELN)
from their lists of terrorist organizations and to recognize
them as "insurgent forces" with political objectives. Chavez
characterized the two groups as "legitimate armies" with
"Bolivarian" goals. He argued that recognition of the FARC
and ELN as political actors could represent the first step
toward a peace agreement in Colombia. The Venezuelan
president asserted that the designation of the FARC and ELN
as terrorist groups resulted from USG "pressure." These
statements may have undermined his support within the region.
Subsequently Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa and
Guatemalan President Alvaro Colon issued press statements
indicating they did not support Chavez's position on the
matter. The Argentine government noted its willingness to
work towards the liberation of all hostages, but drew the
line at changing the status of the FARC and ELN.

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Chavez Comes Clean: Again Floats Indefinite Re-election
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3. (SBU) Three hours into his National Assembly address,
Chavez floated the possibility of again trying to amend the
constitution so that he can remain in power after his current
term expires. Chavez said he might consider initiating a
recall referendum on his presidency and would put on the same
ballot a referendum eliminating presidential term limits. He
indicated it would be at least two years before he might
initiate the process. He suggested that if he lost the
recall or the referendum he would leave office in 2013.

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Failure to Govern
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4. (C) Chavez also attempted to distance himself from the
failures of his government. He admitted that his
administration has not done enough to address the day-to-day
problems of Venezuelans, such as crime, inflation and food
shortages. He urged his cabinet to announce their policy
initiatives for 2008 and also make tangible efforts to tackle
corruption within the government. On the economic front,
Chavez took personal credit for rising oil prices and cited
positive economic growth indicators. Tellingly, he often

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compared the economy in 2007 statistically with data from
1999 (when he was first elected) and at times even 1996
figures rather than 2006 figures, which would have shown a
more problematic trend in many areas. He also implicitly
blamed the United States for the failures of his government,
indicating it was funding a "fifth column" - a vibrant NGO
community - to undermine his administration. He urged
pro-government circles to remain "united" in their fight
against the "empire."

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PSUV Congress Underway
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5. (SBU) Before more than 1600 delegates attending the
January 12 opening congress of Chavez's United Socialist
Party (PSUV),Chavez lamented his electoral defeat December
2, particularly over his poor showing in traditional bastions
of Chavez support. He urged party members to deliver him
resounding victories in the gubernatorial and mayoral
elections slated for November. He warned that if the
opposition wins key states and Caracas boroughs, the "empire"
will order them to "come after" him.


6. (SBU) Chavez also reversed his policy for most of 2007 of
trying to pressure pro-government parties to join PSUV. He
noted his willingness to form an electoral coalition of
"revolutionary movements," with PSUV at the forefront, that
would include those small pro-government parties, such as the
Communist Party and Patria Para Todos (PPT),that have thus
far declined to join the PSUV.

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Colombia Remains on Chavez's Mind
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7. (SBU) Chavez dedicated a considerable portion of his
televised January 13 "Alo, Presidente" program to his
Colombian peace efforts and the possible recreation of a
"Grand Colombia." At times he lashed out at Colombian
officials for terminating his role as FARC mediator in
December 2007, while subsequently hoping for improved
bi-lateral relations. He continued to press the Government
of Colombia to recognize the FARC and ELN as "insurgent
forces," saying that such a move would force them to abide by
the Geneva Convention and thus cease taking hostages. Chavez
dismissed reports that the FARC and ELN are holding as many
as 64 Venezuelan hostages.

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Comment
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8. (C) Chavez's position on the FARC and ELN surprised most
local observers and was widely criticized by the independent
(and largely opposition) media. His apparent willingness to
reach out to pro-government currents outside of the PSUV and
his focus on the failures of his government indicates that he
perceives he has a problem with his own base and that it will
be important to make progress on breadbasket issues to
prevent further erosion. Whether real change or greater
competence in governance is a possibility remains a
fundamental question because so many of the cabinet changes
simply shuffled familiar faces into new positions. Chavez
will likely spend more time working directly on building his
unified party and on rebuilding his base. His return to his
well-used tactic of blaming others for his government's
failures is not surprising.

DUDDY