ANZOATEGUI STATE: CHAVISTAS ON THE DEFENSIVE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000365 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL CO VE SUBJECT: ANZOATEGUI STATE: CHAVISTAS ON THE DEFENSIVE; OPPOSITION EVER SPLINTERED CARACAS 00000365 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON, REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Pro-government forces appear to be on the defensive in the oil-rich eastern state of Anzoategui, until recently a Chavista stronghold. Governor Tarek William Saab, a staunch loyalist of President Chavez, is widely perceived as a poor administrator, and the "No" vote carried Anzoategui in the December 2007 constitutional referendum. During Poloff's March 5-6 visit, Embassy contacts were preoccupied with local problems, including rolling water and electricity cut-offs, rather than Venezuelan's then brewing feud with Colombia. Opposition parties hope to win the governorship and at least half of the state's 21 mayoral seats in the November elections. They are still a long way, however, from paring down long lists of contenders into unified opposition candidates. Moreover, pro-Chavez incumbents are likely to have more resources at their disposal come election time and should not be counted out in what is likely to be a key political battleground state in 2008. End Summary. -------------- Chavistas On the Defensive -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Prior to the December 2007 constitutional referendum, the eastern state of Anzoategui was widely perceived to be staunchly pro-Chavez. President Chavez won 61 percent of the vote there in the December 2006 presidential election. Hard-line Chavista Tarek William Saab, the 44-year-old, self-professed "poet of the Bolivarian revolution" won the governorship with 57 percent of the vote in 2004, despite spending most of his adult life prior to the election in Caracas. Images of Chavez and Governor Saab as well as publicity for Chavez's pro-government party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV),adorn numerous government buildings, billboards, and walls in the tri-city area of Barcelona, Lecheria, and Puerto La Cruz. ¶3. (C) Governor Saab, however, is widely perceived to be a poor administrator, and he appears to have alienated a sizable portion of Chavistas in the state. Unlike some pro-government governors, Saab worked hard for the "Yes" campaign in the constitutional referendum, but the "No" vote still won with 54 percent of the vote. Saab is eligible to run for re-election and has publicly expressed interest in doing so, but Chavez has not yet endorsed Saab's candidacy. Opposition party leaders universally hope Chavez sticks with Saab as they see Saab as beatable. Saab was not among the 69 persons Chavez put on the PSUV's intra-party ballot for the March 9 election of the PSUV's 15-member steering committee. Moreover, no natives of Anzoategui were elected to that committee or as alternates. -------------- Local Problems To the Fore -------------- ¶4. (C) Although the BRV's mobilization of troops to the Colombian border dominated national news during Poloff's March 5-6 visit to Anzoategui, the many persons Poloff spoke to were focused largely on pressing local problems. The Chavista mayor of Puerto La Cruz organized a March 5 anti-Colombia march, but attendance appeared light. A cross-section of opposition leaders told Poloff that the state, despite its oil wealth and tourism industry, suffered from similar problems as Caracas: inflation, scarcity of basic commodities, crime, and unemployment. Barcelona Bishop Cesar Ortega told poloff he himself had been robbed at gunpoint in 2007. Lines were long at Lecheria's largest supermarket, although eggs, rice, and milk were unavailable and refined sugar and corn meal were available only in limited quantities. ¶5. (C) If anything, Anzoategui appeared to suffer more problems than the Venezuelan capital. The mayor of Piritu complained that his municipality is paying the price for an aged water distribution network. He said Piritu residents receive running water less than half of the day. He added that there is a local limit on the sales of large potable water containers to ensure broader distribution. Other Embassy contacts complained of frequent power outages in Barcelona, the state capital of Anzoategui. Electricity union leaders complain that the government-run electricity sector is not doing sufficient maintenance or enough to expand Venezuela's power grid. CARACAS 00000365 002.2 OF 002 -------------- Opposition Ever Splintered -------------- ¶6. (C) Opposition leaders in Anzoategui are focused on fielding unified candidates for the November gubernatorial and 21 mayoral races in the state. The opposition is plagued, however, by a proliferation of local pre-candidates who already present an image of a divided opposition motivated by personal ambitions. The 28-year-old Primero Justicia (PJ) mayor of upscale Lecheria, Gustavo Marcano, at least one former Accion Democratica (AD) governor among additional AD aspirants, and candidates from the Christian Democrats (COPEI) and Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) are running as pre-candidates for the governorship. Venezuelan comic Benjamin Rausseo ("El Conde de Huacharo") is also planning to run as an independent. ¶7. (C) AD has eight pre-candidates for the mayoral seat in Barcelona alone. The party hopes to select one of the pre-candidates by April to compete in opinion polls against pre-candidates from other parties. Marcano's mother is among several pre-candidates for the mayoral seat in Lecheria. State opposition party leaders told Poloff that they hope to negotiate consensus candidacies by May or June. In cases where they cannot agree, they plan to commission public opinion polls to determine leading candidates. They may also refer particularly contentious intra-opposition races to party leaders in Caracas to resolve. ¶8. (C) Comment. The opposition appears to have a good opportunity to win more political power in Anzoategui State, but as is frequently the case in Venezuelan, opposition parties are sometimes their own worst enemy. AD boasts of its residual organizational structure, but does not appear to have broad public appeal. Other opposition parties, like Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT),COPEI, and PJ, may have broader public appeal, but still lack state-wide organizational structures. In a state in which many residents still depend heavily on the government for jobs and resources, pro-Chavez forces should not be counted out, particularly if the opposition fails to really identify and unite behind strong, unitary candidates. End Comment. DUDDY