ANZOATEGUI STATE: CHAVISTAS ON THE DEFENSIVE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000365

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL CO VE
SUBJECT: ANZOATEGUI STATE: CHAVISTAS ON THE DEFENSIVE;
OPPOSITION EVER SPLINTERED

CARACAS 00000365 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. Pro-government forces appear to be on the
defensive in the oil-rich eastern state of Anzoategui, until
recently a Chavista stronghold. Governor Tarek William Saab,
a staunch loyalist of President Chavez, is widely perceived
as a poor administrator, and the "No" vote carried Anzoategui
in the December 2007 constitutional referendum. During
Poloff's March 5-6 visit, Embassy contacts were preoccupied
with local problems, including rolling water and electricity
cut-offs, rather than Venezuelan's then brewing feud with
Colombia. Opposition parties hope to win the governorship
and at least half of the state's 21 mayoral seats in the
November elections. They are still a long way, however, from
paring down long lists of contenders into unified opposition
candidates. Moreover, pro-Chavez incumbents are likely to
have more resources at their disposal come election time and
should not be counted out in what is likely to be a key
political battleground state in 2008. End Summary.

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Chavistas On the Defensive
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2. (SBU) Prior to the December 2007 constitutional
referendum, the eastern state of Anzoategui was widely
perceived to be staunchly pro-Chavez. President Chavez won
61 percent of the vote there in the December 2006
presidential election. Hard-line Chavista Tarek William
Saab, the 44-year-old, self-professed "poet of the Bolivarian
revolution" won the governorship with 57 percent of the vote
in 2004, despite spending most of his adult life prior to the
election in Caracas. Images of Chavez and Governor Saab as
well as publicity for Chavez's pro-government party, the
United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV),adorn numerous
government buildings, billboards, and walls in the tri-city
area of Barcelona, Lecheria, and Puerto La Cruz.


3. (C) Governor Saab, however, is widely perceived to be a
poor administrator, and he appears to have alienated a
sizable portion of Chavistas in the state. Unlike some
pro-government governors, Saab worked hard for the "Yes"
campaign in the constitutional referendum, but the "No" vote
still won with 54 percent of the vote. Saab is eligible to
run for re-election and has publicly expressed interest in
doing so, but Chavez has not yet endorsed Saab's candidacy.
Opposition party leaders universally hope Chavez sticks with
Saab as they see Saab as beatable. Saab was not among the 69
persons Chavez put on the PSUV's intra-party ballot for the
March 9 election of the PSUV's 15-member steering committee.
Moreover, no natives of Anzoategui were elected to that
committee or as alternates.

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Local Problems To the Fore
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4. (C) Although the BRV's mobilization of troops to the
Colombian border dominated national news during Poloff's
March 5-6 visit to Anzoategui, the many persons POLOFF spoke
to were focused largely on pressing local problems. The
Chavista mayor of Puerto La Cruz organized a March 5
anti-Colombia march, but attendance appeared light. A
cross-section of opposition leaders told POLOFF that the
state, despite its oil wealth and tourism industry, suffered
from similar problems as Caracas: inflation, scarcity of
basic commodities, crime, and unemployment. Barcelona Bishop
Cesar Ortega told POLOFF he himself had been robbed at
gunpoint in 2007. Lines were long at Lecheria's largest
supermarket, although eggs, rice, and milk were unavailable
and refined sugar and corn meal were available only in
limited quantities.


5. (C) If anything, Anzoategui appeared to suffer more
problems than the Venezuelan capital. The mayor of Piritu
complained that his municipality is paying the price for an
aged water distribution network. He said Piritu residents
receive running water less than half of the day. He added
that there is a local limit on the sales of large potable
water containers to ensure broader distribution. Other
Embassy contacts complained of frequent power outages in
Barcelona, the state capital of Anzoategui. Electricity
union leaders complain that the government-run electricity
sector is not doing sufficient maintenance or enough to
expand Venezuela's power grid.

CARACAS 00000365 002.2 OF 002



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Opposition Ever Splintered
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6. (C) Opposition leaders in Anzoategui are focused on
fielding unified candidates for the November gubernatorial
and 21 mayoral races in the state. The opposition is
plagued, however, by a proliferation of local pre-candidates
who already present an image of a divided opposition
motivated by personal ambitions. The 28-year-old Primero
Justicia (PJ) mayor of upscale Lecheria, Gustavo Marcano, at
least one former Accion Democratica (AD) governor among
additional AD aspirants, and candidates from the Christian
Democrats (COPEI) and Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) are running as
pre-candidates for the governorship. Venezuelan comic
Benjamin Rausseo ("El Conde de Huacharo") is also planning to
run as an independent.


7. (C) AD has eight pre-candidates for the mayoral seat in
Barcelona alone. The party hopes to select one of the
pre-candidates by April to compete in opinion polls against
pre-candidates from other parties. Marcano's mother is among
several pre-candidates for the mayoral seat in Lecheria.
State opposition party leaders told POLOFF that they hope to
negotiate consensus candidacies by May or June. In cases
where they cannot agree, they plan to commission public
opinion polls to determine leading candidates. They may also
refer particularly contentious intra-opposition races to
party leaders in Caracas to resolve.


8. (C) Comment. The opposition appears to have a good
opportunity to win more political power in Anzoategui State,
but as is frequently the case in Venezuelan, opposition
parties are sometimes their own worst enemy. AD boasts of
its residual organizational structure, but does not appear to
have broad public appeal. Other opposition parties, like Un
Nuevo Tiempo (UNT),COPEI, and PJ, may have broader public
appeal, but still lack state-wide organizational structures.
In a state in which many residents still depend heavily on
the government for jobs and resources, pro-Chavez forces
should not be counted out, particularly if the opposition
fails to really identify and unite behind strong, unitary
candidates. End Comment.

DUDDY