OPPOSITION PARTY COPEI IS CONFIDENT OF OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000245 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2032 TAGS: PGOV PREL SCUL VE SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTY COPEI IS CONFIDENT OF OPPOSITION UNITY FOR NOVEMBER ELECTIONS CARACAS 00000245 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT RICHARD DOWNES FOR REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Christian Democratic Party (COPEI) leader Luis Ignacio Planas called on the Ambassador on February 21 to discuss POLITICAL developments in Venezuela and the opposition's expectations for the November 2008 state and local elections. The 35-year-old Secretary General is putting the final touches on a two-year effort to reform and reinvigorate his party. Noting a January 23 accord between the major opposition parties, Planas said he thought the odds were good that the opposition would agree by the end of June on single candidates for most offices. He was also optimistic regarding the opposition's chances for electoral success in November, saying opposition candidates will focus on the Chavistas failure to govern, which he said is resulting in widespread public dissatisfaction. End Summary ¶2. (C) Ambassador, DCM and PolCouns met February 21 with COPEI Secretary General Luis Ignacio Planas, Deputy Secretary General Alejandro Vivas, and Director for International Relations Juan Francisco Contreras. Planas is in the final steps of completing a two-year effort to reform and reinvigorate his party. More than opposition party Accion Democratica, which alternated in power with COPEI for the 40 years prior to Hugo Chavez' election as president, COPEI appears to be working harder to reform and renew itself. The 35-year-old Secretary General has replaced many of the older party leaders with new faces. Other Embassy contacts have noted that this has not been an easy process, with many of the more senior former leaders still trying to undermine Planas and his reform efforts. ¶3. (C) Planas said he was optimistic regarding the opposition's ability to work together to win back many mayoral and governor positions in the fall state and local elections currently scheduled for November 23, 2008. The party, which has supported participating in elections and has coordinated closely with other opposition parties, hopes to expand the 19 mayoral seats it currently holds when the November election results are in. (Note: COPEI supported Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales in the 2006 presidential election, but only polled 261,000 votes on its ticket. Rosales received 1.5 million votes from his party's Un Nuevo Tiempo ticket and 1.3 million votes on the Primero Justicia ticket. End note.) ¶4. (C) The COPEI Secretary General highlighted the January 23 signature by most opposition parties of an agreement to work together to select single opposition candidates for each office. Under this framework pre-candidates can compete until the end of April, but will withdraw by May 15 in favor of the opposition pre-candidate doing best at the polls at the time. Planas said realistically the parties should have most positions agreed to by the end of June (rather than necessarily by the announced May 15 time table). Formal registration is currently slated for August. In many cases he thought the strongest candidate for a given position would be obvious and subject to quick agreement. In other cases the parties would rely on a variety of mutually acceptable opinion polls, and if agreement still could not be reached, might resort to primaries in some races. Planas indicated the parties would rather avoid primaries as they are both expensive and divisive. COPEI will lobby hardest for its candidates in western states such as Zulia, Tachira and Merida, where it remains particularly strong. ¶5. (C) Planas said that the heretofore pro-government party Podemos, which has been pushed into an opposition role by the government (and opposed Chavez' failed constitutional referendum),did not sign the opposition agreement for selecting candidates. However, he noted that Podemos has been in contact with the parties and Podemos agreed privately to withdraw their candidates in areas where opposition candidates appear stronger in return for the opposition agreement to support Podemos candidates where they are ahead of opposition candidates in the polls. ¶6. (C) Planas was optimistic regarding both his party's and the opposition's prospects for significantly expanding the number of governors (two of 23) and mayors (67 of 334) they (excluding Podemos) currently hold. The parties will focus on the government's failure to provide food (rolling shortages),housing, and basic services as well as its inability to control crime and inflation. The Venezuelan people, he said, were ready for a change. CARACAS 00000245 002.2 OF 002 DUDDY