OPPOSITION PARTY COPEI IS CONFIDENT OF OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000245

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL SCUL VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTY COPEI IS CONFIDENT OF OPPOSITION
UNITY FOR NOVEMBER ELECTIONS


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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT RICHARD DOWNES
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: Christian Democratic Party (COPEI) leader
Luis Ignacio Planas called on the Ambassador on February 21
to discuss political developments in Venezuela and the
opposition's expectations for the November 2008 state and
local elections. The 35-year-old Secretary General is
putting the final touches on a two-year effort to reform and
reinvigorate his party. Noting a January 23 accord between
the major opposition parties, Planas said he thought the odds
were good that the opposition would agree by the end of June
on single candidates for most offices. He was also
optimistic regarding the opposition's chances for electoral
success in November, saying opposition candidates will focus
on the Chavistas failure to govern, which he said is
resulting in widespread public dissatisfaction. End Summary


2. (C) Ambassador, DCM and PolCouns met February 21 with
COPEI Secretary General Luis Ignacio Planas, Deputy Secretary
General Alejandro Vivas, and Director for International
Relations Juan Francisco Contreras. Planas is in the final
steps of completing a two-year effort to reform and
reinvigorate his party. More than opposition party Accion
Democratica, which alternated in power with COPEI for the 40
years prior to Hugo Chavez' election as president, COPEI
appears to be working harder to reform and renew itself.
The 35-year-old Secretary General has replaced many of the
older party leaders with new faces. Other Embassy contacts
have noted that this has not been an easy process, with many
of the more senior former leaders still trying to undermine
Planas and his reform efforts.


3. (C) Planas said he was optimistic regarding the
opposition's ability to work together to win back many
mayoral and governor positions in the fall state and local
elections currently scheduled for November 23, 2008. The
party, which has supported participating in elections and has
coordinated closely with other opposition parties, hopes to
expand the 19 mayoral seats it currently holds when the
November election results are in. (Note: COPEI supported
Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales in the 2006 presidential
election, but only polled 261,000 votes on its ticket.
Rosales received 1.5 million votes from his party's Un Nuevo
Tiempo ticket and 1.3 million votes on the Primero Justicia
ticket. End note.)


4. (C) The COPEI Secretary General highlighted the January 23
signature by most opposition parties of an agreement to work
together to select single opposition candidates for each
office. Under this framework pre-candidates can compete
until the end of April, but will withdraw by May 15 in favor
of the opposition pre-candidate doing best at the polls at
the time. Planas said realistically the parties should have
most positions agreed to by the end of June (rather than
necessarily by the announced May 15 time table). Formal
registration is currently slated for August. In many cases
he thought the strongest candidate for a given position would
be obvious and subject to quick agreement. In other cases
the parties would rely on a variety of mutually acceptable
opinion polls, and if agreement still could not be reached,
might resort to primaries in some races. Planas indicated
the parties would rather avoid primaries as they are both
expensive and divisive. COPEI will lobby hardest for its
candidates in western states such as Zulia, Tachira and
Merida, where it remains particularly strong.


5. (C) Planas said that the heretofore pro-government party
Podemos, which has been pushed into an opposition role by the
government (and opposed Chavez' failed constitutional
referendum),did not sign the opposition agreement for
selecting candidates. However, he noted that Podemos has
been in contact with the parties and Podemos agreed privately
to withdraw their candidates in areas where opposition
candidates appear stronger in return for the opposition
agreement to support Podemos candidates where they are ahead
of opposition candidates in the polls.


6. (C) Planas was optimistic regarding both his party's and
the opposition's prospects for significantly expanding the
number of governors (two of 23) and mayors (67 of 334) they
(excluding Podemos) currently hold. The parties will focus
on the government's failure to provide food (rolling
shortages),housing, and basic services as well as its
inability to control crime and inflation. The Venezuelan
people, he said, were ready for a change.

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DUDDY