VENEZUELA AND BRV REACT TO CASTRO'S RESIGNATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000219 SIPDIS SIPDIS USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL CU VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELA AND BRV REACT TO CASTRO'S RESIGNATION REF: HAVANA 0167 Classified By: Robert Downes, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.4(b). ¶1. (SBU) The February 19 announcement by Fidel Castro that he will step down as President and Commander-in-Chief after next Sunday's election was received by the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV) with a mixture of hero worship and denial. President Hugo Chavez told the local media, "What resignation? Fidel has not resigned. Men like him do not retire." BRV Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro added "Fidel has played a historic role over the last 50 years and the liberation of Nelson Mandela was a result of the military, political and diplomatic efforts of Fidel Castro." ¶2. (SBU) Ubaldo Santana, Archbishop of Maracaibo and President of the Venezuelan Conference of Bishops, called Castro's withdrawal, "a new stage in the island's history." Santana called for the U.S. to lift its economic blockade of Cuba describing it as "unjust" and "unhelpful to democracy." ¶3. (SBU) Elsa Cardozo, a political analyst at the Metropolitan University of Caracas, predicted that Chavez' Bolivarian Alternative for America (ALBA) would be weakened without Fidel's ideological support. Cardozo also envisioned that while Raul Castro would not break economic relations with Venezuela, he would take a pragmatic economic approach rather than relying exclusively on Caracas' petrodollars. ¶4. (SBU) Venezuelan radio and print sources are repeating a Brazilian daily's, Folha de Sao Paulo, story that Raul Castro will be seeking the aid of Brazilian President Lula da Silva during the transition process instead of Chavez. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Fidel Castro has been Chavez' ideological mentor and role model. Cuban doctors are at the core of the Barrio Adentro health program and Cuban agents are reportedly part of Chavez' internal security apparatus. Local analysts tell us that Chavez' relationship with Raul is not nearly as close as with Fidel. They speculate that any distancing between Raul Castro and Chavez could undermine Chavez' management of his Bolivarian revolution. DUDDY