CHAVEZ'S FEBRUARY REFERENDUM DATE A LEGAL STRETCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001753

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SUBJECT: CHAVEZ'S FEBRUARY REFERENDUM DATE A LEGAL STRETCH

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Classified By: A/POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON,
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: Chavez continues to move forward on his
amendment proposal, apparently with the hope of holding a
referendum before the end of February. The National Assembly
(AN) concluded its first debate December 18 in favor of the
amendment and has another debate scheduled for the second
week of January. Nevertheless, former CNE president Roberto
Ruiz told POLOFF that the National Electoral Council (CNE)
could not feasibly prepare for an election before the end of
March -- should it follow all the legally proscribed steps.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) The first AN debate over Chavez's amendment
proposal, held in extra plenary session, lasted nine hours
December 18 as each PSUV deputy sought his turn to defend the
proposal. The amendment was approved shortly before 10 p.m.
with objections from the pro-government Patria Para Todos
(PPT) party and open opposition from the Podemos party.
Another AN debate is scheduled for the first week after the
reopening of the legislature on January 5. As of December
19, the PSUV claimed that some 4.7 million signatures had
been collected by Chavista activists in favor of the
amendment.

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LENGTHY ELECTORAL PREPARATION PROCESS
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3. (C) Former CNE president Roberto Ruiz told POLOFF
December 18 that the logistics of preparing for an election
would make it difficult to hold a referendum prior to at
least mid-March. After the AN submits the proposal, the CNE
is legally obligated to follow several steps that may not run
concurrently. Ruiz said the wording of the referendum
question has to be approved, then the electoral registry must
be opened for 30 days to allow for changes since it was last
closed in September. The parties then have 15 days to
formally register in support of either "yes" or "no" and at
least a 30 day campaign period. The balloting machines must
also be reprogrammed and at least 10 percent of them tested
with registered party representatives present. Ruiz
speculated that the technical programming and tests could
take around two or three weeks. The parties must also
designate a new slate of election witnesses to safeguard the
balloting. (Note: The CNE announced previously that the poll
workers, who are randomly assigned and selected like US-style
jury duty, will stay on through the proposed referendum. End
note.)


4. (C) Ruiz pointed out that the CNE took two and a half
months to prepare for the December 2007 referendum, not
counting the signature drives. He predicted that the
earliest the CNE could hold a referendum -- if they follow
all the legal requirements -- would be the end of March. He
said that the CNE would publish a timeline of election
preparation events as soon as the AN submits the proposal,
probably in early January. Ruiz noted that in addition to
the CNE's plans to take time off for the holidays, they are
also still swamped with electoral challenges from the
November 23 state and local elections that they have yet to
rule on.

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ELECTORAL WITNESSES KEY
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5. (SBU) Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) conducted an assessment of
the opposition's coverage of the November 23 state and local
elections and concluded that 98.5% of the electoral sites had
opposition witnesses present. This suggests that
approximately 520 sites (1.5%) were not staffed by opposition
witnesses, most prominently in Trujillo State. According to
UNT representative Vicente Bello, in 58 of the 520 sites, 95
percent of the ballots cast were in support of PSUV
candidates. He claimed that nearly every one of the
approximately 85,000 registered voters in the municipalities
would have had to cast a ballot to yield these results.


6. (C) Comment: Although UNT's electoral witness coverage
is probably exaggerated, their study highlights that
electoral witnesses are the most effective way for the
opposition to counter the possibility of PSUV-supported
fraud. Chavez could still lean on the CNE to cut corners and
hold the referendum earlier than the projected mid to late
March, although he would risk undermining the legitimacy of

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the referendum process. Complaints about improper procedure
or other technical legal issues are unlikely to gain traction
outside of the opposition's base. End Comment.
CAULFIELD