CHAVEZ PERSONALIZING AMENDMENT PROPOSAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001721 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2028 TAGS: PGOV VE KDEM SUBJECT: CHAVEZ PERSONALIZING AMENDMENT PROPOSAL CARACAS 00001721 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, FOR REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Chavez initiated the drive to collect signatures December 11 in support of a constitutional amendment to allow for indefinite reelection, and continues to reiterate that the referendum must be held by February. He has framed the amendment as a minor legal tweak and personalized its outcome, inferring that the "revolution" -- and its accompanying social programs -- can only continue with Chavez at the helm. The opposition has mobilized to counter the referendum, but some members may be overstating its ability to once against triumph at the polls. End Summary. -------------- CHAVEZ AT THE CAMPAIGN FOREFRONT -------------- ¶2. (C) Chavez kicked off the campaign drive to collect signatures December 11 by being the first to sign in Bolivar Plaza in downtown Caracas before the gathered media. The drive is divided into two stages, the first to end December 18 and the second beginning after the Christmas holidays on January 5. National Assembly (AN) president Cilia Flores announced that the AN would begin its first discussion on the amendment December 18, and other PSUV deputies said the second and final discussion would be held on January 5. The National Electoral Council (CNE) will then have at least thirty days to prepare for the balloting. A CNE staffer told polassistant that the CNE does not expect to be ready until March 2009 and that the CNE is tasked with opening more polling stations. ¶3. (SBU) Aristobulo Isturiz, coordinator of the Mobilization Pro-Amendment Command, has pledged that supporters hope to collect over seven million signatures -- more than the total number of purported PSUV members. Chavez was reelected in 2006 with 7.3 million votes, and the PSUV claims to have 5.7 million members on its rolls. Libertador mayor Jorge Rodriguez, Chavez's campaign manager, pledged that state funds would not be used during the process and that Chavistas would be offering 10 percent of their income to the amendment cause. There are reports, however, that individuals seeking to do business with some government offices are being asked to sign the petition before any service can be rendered. ;¶4. (SBU) Chavez has been using mandatory "cadena" broadcasting to dominate the TV and radio waves nearly every night for several hours at a time since first announcing his amendment proposal. He continues to argue that he only wants to change "a few little words" of the constitution and that he is, reluctantly, the only leader able to guarantee the continuity of the "Bolivarian project." Chavez argued December 14 during an interview on Jose Vicente Rangel's Sunday TV program, "Today," that he is the same leader as he was ten years ago, fighting against the entrenched elite minority. Furthermore, to shepherd along the revolution, he had to remain at its forefront beyond 2012, the end of his current term. ¶5. (SBU) Chavez claims that the opposition has "mistakenly interpreted" Simon Bolivar's warnings of the dangers of the same individual perpetuating himself in power -- commonly used as an anti-amendment slogan. Chavez contended that "in Venezuela, if someone has become used to obedience (to the same leader),it is Hugo Chavez... I am here obeying the mandate of the people." He has reiterated that the referendum on the amendment must be held by February, and that Chavistas must run a "perfect" campaign to achieve this. The President ordered new Minister of Information and Communication Jesse Chacon to prepare a radio program to increase his access to Venezuelans and explain his amendment proposal. From Guarico State, Chavez announced December 10 that in his next term, starting in 2013, he would resubmit the rest of the reforms that were rejected in December 2007's referendum. -------------- OPPOSITION PUSHES BACK -------------- ¶6. (C) Representatives from Primero Justicia (PJ) appealed to the Supreme Court (TSJ) December 10 asking that it clarify whether Chavez's proposal is, in fact, an amendment or a new constitutional reform. PJ also asked that the TSJ prohibit CARACAS 00001721 002.2 OF 002 the process from moving forward in the National Assembly until the court has made a final ruling. A UNT activist in Caracas told POLOFF December 8 that the party did not have concrete plans on how to counter Chavez's proposal, but waved away suggestions that the referendum might pass, citing the failure of the December 2007 reform referendum as evidence. ¶7. (SBU) Student groups have also been active, leading street demonstrations in Caracas under the slogan "you too can be president," giving a rationale against indefinite reelection. Students at the national catholic university are distributing pamphlets and posters that ask if the population wants "indefinite hunger", "indefinite unemployment" and "indefinite corruption." Popular former Minister of Defense Raul Baduel criticized the amendment as "vulgar and abusive" and decried Chavez's efforts to keep Venezuela in a state of "permanent conflict." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Chavez is once again framing the proposed referendum as a plebiscite on him, dominating the air waves with continual talk about the dangers of a Bolivarian revolution -- or Venezuela -- without him. The decision to collect signatures in addition to passage through the AN will provide Chavez with a reverse Tascon list of sorts, giving him an updated list of the party faithful and ready support to the argument that this is a popular and "democratic" proposal. It appears that Chavez and his supporters are counting on opposition overconfidence and the usual lull in activities during the holidays to allow them to gain enough momentum to pass the proposal. End Comment. CAULFIELD