STATE AND LOCAL VOTING MOSTLY FREE AND FAIR ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001668 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2028 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: STATE AND LOCAL VOTING MOSTLY FREE AND FAIR ON VOTING DAY, BUT BY THEN THE FIX WAS IN CARACAS 00001668 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, FOR REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Embassy Caracas deployed informal, unaccredited observation teams throughout Caracas and to six states during the November 23 balloting for state and local elections. They and other electoral observers confirmed scattered irregularities, such as late openings and closings of the polls as well as isolated cases of voter intimidation and polling station electioneering. Voting at the vast majority of polling stations, however, appeared free and fair. Efforts by President Chavez and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) to tilt the electoral playing field prior to November 23, by disqualifying key opposition candidates and using state media and resources for PSUV candidates' campaigns, constituted the most significant electoral problems. Chavez is taking a significant political gamble by seeking a second referendum early in 2009 to eliminate presidential term limits. We expect the Venezuelan president to press the National Electoral Council (CNE) for even greater electoral advantages in 2009, making reviving USAID/OTI's non-partisan voter support work critical. End Summary. -------------- EMBASSY CARACAS OBSERVATIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) Embassy Caracas dispatched 11 informal election monitoring teams November 23 to visit 102 polling stations in Caracas and six states (close to one percent of all polling stations). Local electoral officials invited the teams to observe balloting in 81 of the stations. They reported strong turnout despite waiting times of up to four hours for voters, and a significant presence of witnesses at voting sites from both PSUV and opposition parties, although the opposition was not able to field witnesses in all areas. There were scattered reports of PSUV workers plying voters with food and illegally campaigning in the vicinity of polling stations. There were also several reports of technical problems and polling stations not opening on time, but poloffs could not determine a discernible pattern of problems. In an isolated incident, the Embassy team in Merida witnessed 50 Tupamaros on motorbikes campaigning for the PSUV and trying to discourage opposition voting. ¶3. (C) Canadian, Mexican, Japanese, and EU diplomats also informally observed voting in Caracas and noticed only scattered voting problems. Canadian and UK diplomats reported seeing polling stations in pro-government neighborhoods being left open beyond the 4:00 p.m. closing time, even though no voters were waiting in line. Canadian diplomats watched the Special Venezuelan police (DISIP) physically remove an opposition witness when he complained that local polling officials were illegally keeping the polls open. Nevertheless, the Canadian monitors saw only an additional 10-15 voters actually turn up after the closing time. -------------- OJO ELECTORAL NOTES NO MAJOR VIOLATIONS -------------- ¶4. (C) Independent domestic electoral watchdog organization Ojo Electoral (OE) told poloff that their quick count of votes in several states (Caracas, Zulia, Carabobo, Tachira, Miranda) on election day matched what the CNE produced. At least eight out of ten electoral centers opened before 8:00 a.m., one in ten before 9:00 a.m., and less than one in ten after 9:00 a.m. They reported that a majority of voting machines functioned well, and those that did not were quickly replaced. Few problems were noted or reported with the digital finger scanning, (or "captahuella"),machines. The organization judged that voter turnout was high and, in the majority of voting centers, the flow of people voting was normal. In most electoral sites they noted that there were witnesses present from multiple parties. ¶5. (C) OE pointed out, however, that they witnessed a significant number of electoral sites which stayed open past the 4:00 p.m. deadline, even when there were no voters in line -- a violation of CNE rules. During a late afternoon November 23 press conference, CNE director Tibisay Lucena refused to categorically state this rule while speaking to the media. Nevertheless, OE pointed out that the coordinators of each voting site did not usually have access CARACAS 00001668 002.2 OF 002 to TV, so they believe that the decision to stay open or not was probably not a systematic and organized determination. OE also reiterated complaints by other unofficial observers, including the Ambassadors from Chile and Peru, that disqualification of opposition candidates and the rechanneling of state resources to PSUV candidates tilted the electoral playing field. -------------- DISPUTES IN BARINAS, VALENCIA -------------- ¶6. (C) OE regretted that none of their observers were dispatched to Barinas State, given the ongoing allegations of fraud and the very narrow gubernatorial win by Chavez's brother, Adan. Popular Barinas mayor and PSUV dissident candidate Julio Cesar Reyes claimed that the election swung to favor Adan late in the evening of November 23, indicating that there was possible ballot stuffing. Adan Chavez was nevertheless sworn in by the regional legislative council December 2 as governor, replacing his father, Hugo de los Reyes Chavez. The CNE contended that Cesar Reyes could not have known whether or not he had won by 6:00 p.m. -- as he has claimed -- since the votes had not yet been counted. The electoral body confirmed that Adan had won with nearly 99 percent of the votes counted. CNE rector Vicente Diaz also confirmed that the difference between Adan Chavez and Cesar Reyes' vote counts was "insurmountable." Diaz is widely regarded as the sole impartial rector in the CNE, and his judgment that the results are fair is likely to be respected by the opposition. ¶7. (SBU) Opposition candidate for the Valencia mayorship Miguel Cocchiola has complained before the municipal electoral board that he has proof of fraud in the local elections. He claims that six pen drives -- the digital memory stored in each voting machine -- were added at two in the morning on the night of November 23 to the final vote count, changing the results to favor PSUV candidate and mayoral winner Edgardo Parra. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Although the elections themselves appear to have been largely free and fair, they were conducted in a sharply polarized atmosphere following a campaign season rife with GBRV electoral violations and a playing field strongly tilted in favor of Chavismo. Chavez has claimed that the results show he is not a dictator, but his concerted effort to exploit state resources and undermine the opposition in the preceding months was hardly democratic. These violations include the disqualification of strong opposition candidates without due process, flagrantly abusing state resources -- particularly the media -- to benefit PSUV candidates, and the further polarization of the electorate through Chavez's vicious verbal attacks against key opposition leaders. ¶9. (C) We anticipate that Chavez will continue to use many of these undemocratic methods to weaken the opposition and shore up his own support as he moves forward with his amendment proposal in 2009 to remove presidential term limits. Given that Chavez is staking his own personal political future on a referendum that was already narrowly defeated once at the polls, we expect the Venezuelan president to put even more pressure on the CNE and other GBRV entities to tilt the electoral playing field to his advantage. Future USAID/OTI non-partisan get-out-the-vote, voter education, and vote-protection work will be critical in the upcoming test of Venezuela's fragile democracy. End Comment. GENNATIEMPO