STATE AND LOCAL VOTING MOSTLY FREE AND FAIR ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001668

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2028
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: STATE AND LOCAL VOTING MOSTLY FREE AND FAIR ON
VOTING DAY, BUT BY THEN THE FIX WAS IN

CARACAS 00001668 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: Embassy Caracas deployed informal,
unaccredited observation teams throughout Caracas and to six
states during the November 23 balloting for state and local
elections. They and other electoral observers confirmed
scattered irregularities, such as late openings and closings
of the polls as well as isolated cases of voter intimidation
and polling station electioneering. Voting at the vast
majority of polling stations, however, appeared free and
fair. Efforts by President Chavez and his United Socialist
Party of Venezuela (PSUV) to tilt the electoral playing field
prior to November 23, by disqualifying key opposition
candidates and using state media and resources for PSUV
candidates' campaigns, constituted the most significant
electoral problems. Chavez is taking a significant political
gamble by seeking a second referendum early in 2009 to
eliminate presidential term limits. We expect the Venezuelan
president to press the National Electoral Council (CNE) for
even greater electoral advantages in 2009, making reviving
USAID/OTI's non-partisan voter support work critical. End
Summary.

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EMBASSY CARACAS OBSERVATIONS
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2. (C) Embassy Caracas dispatched 11 informal election
monitoring teams November 23 to visit 102 polling stations in
Caracas and six states (close to one percent of all polling
stations). Local electoral officials invited the teams to
observe balloting in 81 of the stations. They reported
strong turnout despite waiting times of up to four hours for
voters, and a significant presence of witnesses at voting
sites from both PSUV and opposition parties, although the
opposition was not able to field witnesses in all areas.
There were scattered reports of PSUV workers plying voters
with food and illegally campaigning in the vicinity of
polling stations. There were also several reports of
technical problems and polling stations not opening on time,
but poloffs could not determine a discernible pattern of
problems. In an isolated incident, the Embassy team in
Merida witnessed 50 Tupamaros on motorbikes campaigning for
the PSUV and trying to discourage opposition voting.


3. (C) Canadian, Mexican, Japanese, and EU diplomats also
informally observed voting in Caracas and noticed only
scattered voting problems. Canadian and UK diplomats
reported seeing polling stations in pro-government
neighborhoods being left open beyond the 4:00 p.m. closing
time, even though no voters were waiting in line. Canadian
diplomats watched the Special Venezuelan police (DISIP)
physically remove an opposition witness when he complained
that local polling officials were illegally keeping the polls
open. Nevertheless, the Canadian monitors saw only an
additional 10-15 voters actually turn up after the closing
time.

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OJO ELECTORAL NOTES NO MAJOR VIOLATIONS
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4. (C) Independent domestic electoral watchdog organization
Ojo Electoral (OE) told POLOFF that their quick count of
votes in several states (Caracas, Zulia, Carabobo, Tachira,
Miranda) on election day matched what the CNE produced. At
least eight out of ten electoral centers opened before 8:00
a.m., one in ten before 9:00 a.m., and less than one in ten
after 9:00 a.m. They reported that a majority of voting
machines functioned well, and those that did not were quickly
replaced. Few problems were noted or reported with the
digital finger scanning, (or "captahuella"),machines. The
organization judged that voter turnout was high and, in the
majority of voting centers, the flow of people voting was
normal. In most electoral sites they noted that there were
witnesses present from multiple parties.


5. (C) OE pointed out, however, that they witnessed a
significant number of electoral sites which stayed open past
the 4:00 p.m. deadline, even when there were no voters in
line -- a violation of CNE rules. During a late afternoon
November 23 press conference, CNE director Tibisay Lucena
refused to categorically state this rule while speaking to
the media. Nevertheless, OE pointed out that the
coordinators of each voting site did not usually have access

CARACAS 00001668 002.2 OF 002


to TV, so they believe that the decision to stay open or not
was probably not a systematic and organized determination.
OE also reiterated complaints by other unofficial observers,
including the Ambassadors from Chile and Peru, that
disqualification of opposition candidates and the
rechanneling of state resources to PSUV candidates tilted the
electoral playing field.

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DISPUTES IN BARINAS, VALENCIA
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6. (C) OE regretted that none of their observers were
dispatched to Barinas State, given the ongoing allegations of
fraud and the very narrow gubernatorial win by Chavez's
brother, Adan. Popular Barinas mayor and PSUV dissident
candidate Julio Cesar Reyes claimed that the election swung
to favor Adan late in the evening of November 23, indicating
that there was possible ballot stuffing. Adan Chavez was
nevertheless sworn in by the regional legislative council
December 2 as governor, replacing his father, Hugo de los
Reyes Chavez. The CNE contended that Cesar Reyes could not
have known whether or not he had won by 6:00 p.m. -- as he
has claimed -- since the votes had not yet been counted. The
electoral body confirmed that Adan had won with nearly 99
percent of the votes counted. CNE rector Vicente Diaz also
confirmed that the difference between Adan Chavez and Cesar
Reyes' vote counts was "insurmountable." Diaz is widely
regarded as the sole impartial rector in the CNE, and his
judgment that the results are fair is likely to be respected
by the opposition.


7. (SBU) Opposition candidate for the Valencia mayorship
Miguel Cocchiola has complained before the municipal
electoral board that he has proof of fraud in the local
elections. He claims that six pen drives -- the digital
memory stored in each voting machine -- were added at two in
the morning on the night of November 23 to the final vote
count, changing the results to favor PSUV candidate and
mayoral winner Edgardo Parra.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) Although the elections themselves appear to have
been largely free and fair, they were conducted in a sharply
polarized atmosphere following a campaign season rife with
GBRV electoral violations and a playing field strongly tilted
in favor of Chavismo. Chavez has claimed that the results
show he is not a dictator, but his concerted effort to
exploit state resources and undermine the opposition in the
preceding months was hardly democratic. These violations
include the disqualification of strong opposition candidates
without due process, flagrantly abusing state resources --
particularly the media -- to benefit PSUV candidates, and the
further polarization of the electorate through Chavez's
vicious verbal attacks against key opposition leaders.


9. (C) We anticipate that Chavez will continue to use many of
these undemocratic methods to weaken the opposition and shore
up his own support as he moves forward with his amendment
proposal in 2009 to remove presidential term limits. Given
that Chavez is staking his own personal political future on a
referendum that was already narrowly defeated once at the
polls, we expect the Venezuelan president to put even more
pressure on the CNE and other GBRV entities to tilt the
electoral playing field to his advantage. Future USAID/OTI
non-partisan get-out-the-vote, voter education, and
vote-protection work will be critical in the upcoming test of
Venezuela's fragile democracy. End Comment.

GENNATIEMPO