CHAVEZ MOVING FORWARD TO REMOVE TERM LIMITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 001664

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ MOVING FORWARD TO REMOVE TERM LIMITS

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: Chavez announced December 1 that his
United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) would begin
preparing a constitutional amendment to allow indefinite
presidential reelection. Chavez said he hopes his
supporters would send the proposed amendment to the National
Electoral Council as early as January, with the aim of
holding a referendum in February. Political pundits argue
that Chavez is pushing for a quick vote to take advantage of
PSUV wins in the November 23 state and local elections before
what many project to be a looming economic crisis hits.
Chavez has constructed a legal argument to counter
allegations that his proposal violates the constitution, and
two CNE rectors have already called the amendment process
"viable" by February. End Summary.

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CHAVEZ ATTACKS OPPOSITION, PROPOSES AMENDMENT
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2. (SBU) Chavez announced November 29 at a Vargas State
political rally that the people and the armed forces were
ready to "erase" whatever plan the opposition might have to
"end the revolution" and "reactivate the scenario from 2002,"
a reference to the failed April 2002 coup. The President
also rejected calls for political reconciliation, claiming
within hours of the elections that the opposition had begun
preparing layoffs and plans to attack the popular social
"misiones" programs. He accused the new opposition governors
of Miranda and Zulia States of fascism and "threatening the
people." After reminding the audience that his term expires
in 2013, Chavez told his supporters, "when I see that
fascism, I ask God for forgiveness, because I am a Catholic
and a Christian, uh ah, Chavez doesn't go!" At a December 1
press conference, PSUV director Vanessa Davies said ending
presidential term would heed "the call of the people" and
that the party would not "veer from our objective" to move
forward on the amendment proposal.


3. (SBU) Chavez, in a mandatory December 2 "cadena"
television and radio broadcast from Miranda State announced
that "what we could do, simply, is eliminate a phrase" from
Article 230 of the Constitution that allows for only one
immediate, consecutive presidential term. He claimed that
this reelection "battle" could be won, and that "I, as of
now, nominate myself as a presidential candidate for 2012,"
telling supporters that it was too soon for his retirement.
The next day, Chavez announced at a Sucre State rally that
the amendment process would go through the National Assembly
(AN) rather than being initiated with the constitutionally
required signatures of fifteen percent of registered voters.
Chavez explained that "the path through the National Assembly
has an advantage: it is much faster." The AN is heavily
dominated by PSUV deputies, whereas Chavez would have to
collect 2.5 million signatures to pursue the other method.
The President went on to attack the only politically
independent rector in the CNE, Vicente Diaz, for his
criticism of the proposed amendment. Chavez argued that
Diaz's comments were inappropriate, and asked that he
"reconsider or resign" his position.

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THE AMENDMENT PROCESS
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4. (C) Title 9 of the Venezuelan constitution permits three
methods for altering the constitution: by amendment, reform,
or constituent assembly. An amendment is intended for minor
wording changes, a reform is for more major alterations that
do not affect the overall spirit of the constitution, and a
constituent assembly is reserved for a complete overhaul of
both the spirit and wording of the constitution.
Constitutional legal expert Jose Vicente Haro told POLOFF
December 3 that Chavez is pursuing an amendment, rather than
a reform -- as he did in December 2007 -- in order to be able
to argue that he is not violating the prohibition on
proposing the same constitutional change more than once in a
single presidential term. Haro offered the same rationale
for why Chavez is having "the people" via the AN initiate the
amendment process, rather than doing so personally or through
his cabinet, since that is how he proposed the reform last
year. According to Article 341 of the constitution, 30
percent of the National Assembly members must support the
amendment. The CNE then calls for the proposed amendment to
be put to a vote in a national referendum, which can be

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called no earlier than 30 days prior to the voting date, to
permit debate over the topic at hand, according to Haro.
Passage or not is determined by a simple majority of the vote.


5. (C) Haro contended that critics of Chavez's proposal are
making the wrong argument when they point to the amendment as
an illegal repeat of last year's reform. He suggests that a
comparatively stronger legal case is that the amendment
proposal violates articles 2 and 6 of the 1999 Constitution,
which deal respectively with democracy and alternation of
power. Haro noted that whatever the outcome of a popular
referendum, the amendment itself cannot violate articles of
the constitution. Even if Chavez is able to pass the
amendment, any Venezuelan citizen could challenge its
constitutionality after the fact before the Supreme Court.
Nevertheless, Haro said he did not expect the politicized
court system to rule against the passage and implementation
of such an amendment.

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CNE CLAIMS AMENDMENT "VIABLE"
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6. (SBU) CNE vice president Yaneth Hernandez announced
December 2 that pursuing a constitutional amendment would be
"perfectly viable" in February. The poll workers from
November's state and local elections would carry on their
duties -- which are obligatory -- a second time, since their
designation as "members of table" lasts a year. CNE Rector
German Yepez made similar statements to state media. CNE
Rector Vicente Diaz, however, told the local media that he
thought the CNE should be afforded some eight months to
prepare properly for such a referendum. CNE president Lucena
Tibisay announced that as of December 3, she had not received
a petition for an amendment referendum and that the CNE would
receive a "much deserved" break -- of an unspecified length
-- after closing the November 23 state and local elections.

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OPPOSITION, DISSIDENT REACTION
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7. (SBU) Civil society groups have reacted swiftly to
Chavez's proposal. On December 2, members of the NGO Active
Citizens initiated a campaign in Caracas with the slogan "no
is no, respect the people's will," in reference to the
failure of the December 2007 referendum. The popular former
opposition mayor of Chacao, Leopoldo Lopez, called the same
day for "an alliance around the constitution," telling
supporters in Anzoategui State that they should not waste
time discussing the legality of the proposal but instead move
immediately to unify the electorate to vote against the
reform. Student leader Juan Mejias from Simon Bolivar
University told pro-opposition daily El Universal that
student activists from several universities had met December
2 to discuss how to react. Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) Political
Director Angel Emiro Vera told Poloffs December 4 that
opposition parties would meet on December 6 to discuss ways
to unite against the amendment proposal.


8. (SBU) The pro-government Patria Para Todos (PPT) and
Venezuelan Communist Party (PCV) called December 1 for a
"debate" over the constitutional reform. PPT Secretary
General Rafael Uzcategui stated that the discussion should
consider removing term limits for all public officials, but
added that he was not putting "conditions" on support for
Chavez's proposal. PCV spokesman Yul Jabour emphasized that
the party had not taken a position yet, but asked that "the
people participate; the popular organizations be consulted."
He added that the results of the November 23 elections show
that "Chavez is a great leader, a great polarizer of
elections."

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Some local polling indicates only about 30 percent
of Venezuelans -- the hardcore Chavista contingent -- support
indefinite presidential reelection. Nevertheless, Chavez is
pitching the concept as giving the electorate more choice --
to keep him in power for the length of their choosing. His
continued attacks on the opposition and mass press campaign
to highlight PSUV wins in the November 23 elections
underscore his efforts to keep the election season momentum
going through a referendum in upcoming months.


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10. (C) Chavez appears to be gambling that his electoral
strength is on the rise, or at least stronger now than it
will be later when lower oil prices will affect the GBRV's
ability to sustain its politically popular social programs.
Some 5.4 million Venezuelans voted for PSUV gubernatorial
candidates on November 23, while only 4.3 million Venezuelans
voted for his failed constitutional reform package in
December 2007. The amendment vote would be a real gamble, as
four states (in addition to the five states that elected
opposition governors) that voted for PSUV governors, voted
against Chavez's constitutional package last year. End
comment.

GENNATIEMPO