CHAVEZ SEEKS RE-ELECTION/GRABS POWERS FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001636

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ SEEKS RE-ELECTION/GRABS POWERS FROM
OPPOSITION GOVERNORS

CARACAS 00001636 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Francisco Fernandez, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Chavez is on the political
offensive after the opposition scored some noteworthy gains
in the November 23 state and local elections. In a
nationally-televised November 30 speech, President Chavez
urged his supporters to launch a signature drive that would
force a new referendum on presidential term limits. He also
said he is keeping a close eye on newly-elected opposition
governors and mayors and would not permit "violations against
the people." Outgoing PSUV governors and mayors are
transferring local institutions to the central government and
sacking state resources. The Government of the Bolivarian
Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) is particularly hampering the
mayoral and gubernatorial transitions in Maracaibo and
Miranda State, respectively. END SUMMARY.

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WILLING TO STAY ON UNTIL 2019
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2. (SBU) During a nationally-televised November 30 speech at
the swearing-in of Jorge Rodriguez, the new PSUV mayor of the
Libertador borough of Caracas, President Chavez "authorized"
his supporters to start a petition drive to eliminate the
constitutional barrier to his second re-election. Chavez
said the Venezuelan people are right -- "Uh, ah, Chavez will
not go." During a December 1 speech, Chavez ordered his
supporters to start gathering signatures now to prepare for a
referendum on presidential term limits as soon as January

2009. The Venezuelan president stressed that he did not want
to "pass 2009 debating whether Chavez is or is not a tyrant."



3. (SBU) Chavez was re-elected under the 1999 Constitution in
December 2006 and his second term of office ends in January

2013. Chavez's supporters need to get signatures from 15
percent of the electorate to put the issue to a referendum.
The elimination of presidential term limits was part of the
constitutional reform package that voters narrowly rejected
in December 2007. Most legal experts believe that the 1999
Constitution prohibits putting an issue to a referendum twice
during the same presidential period. At the same time, most
analysts do not believe the heavily politicized Venezuelan
court system will stand in the way.


4. (SBU) In his November 30 speech, Chavez accused
newly-elected opposition governors and mayors of being
"fascists" and of interfering with the GBRV's social programs
("misiones"). He stressed that he is monitoring their
conduct "day by day" and warned that he would not stand by if
they engage in "violations against the people."

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PSUV'S SCORCHED EARTH TRANSITIONS
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5. (C) Prior to departing office, numerous PSUV state and
local officials have transferred authorities and resources to
the central government. In Maracaibo, Embassy contacts
report that outgoing PSUV Mayor Gian Carlo DiMartino and his
followers are dismantling revenue streams and even the basic
tools of government. DiMartino transferred the building that
houses the Maracaibo mayor's office to the Society of
Autistic Children, denying mayor-elect Manuel Rosales a place
to work on December 3 when he takes office. The Maracaibo
sports complex, where Maracaibo's professional baseball,
soccer and basketball teams play has been shifted to the
central government's Sports Ministry, cutting off the city's
revenue stream.


6. (C) In addition, DiMartino moved the Paseo del Agua,
Maracaibo's signature park, to the GBRV Ministry of Natural
Resources and local authority over Maracaibo's unfinished
metro to the central government's CorpoZulia. Embassy
contacts report that the Maracaibo police helicopter has been
transferred to either the Ministry of Interior and Justice or
to the local Army garrison. In addition, there are
widespread reports of the theft of office equipment, files,
and blank purchase orders that could be used to bill the new
mayor for fictitious goods and services.


7. (SBU) In Miranda, the local press reported similar thefts
taking place in offices belonging to Miranda state
government. Hardest hit was the Governor's information

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office where cameras, video kits, monitors, sound and video
editing suites were being carried away by red-shirted
looters. Outgoing PSUV governor Diosdado Cabello reportedly
transferred three state hospitals and state bus lines to the
central government. Incoming opposition mayor of the Sucre
borough of Caracas Carlos Ocariz told the local media that
the GBRV removed garbage trucks from the municipality and the
borough's trash compactor disappeared overnight. (Note:
Sanitation was a key point of dissatisfaction among urban
voters that turned away from Chavez. End Note.)

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COMMENT
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8. (C) Chavez is going on the political offensive in the wake
of the November 23 state and local elections, despite the
fact that the opposition scored some significant gains in
some of Venezuela's most populated entities. He appears to
be gambling that the 5.5 million votes most recently cast for
the PSUV will be sufficient to win the elimination of
presidential term limits. The December 2007 referendum,
however, demonstrated that many Chavez supporters are willing
to abstain or vote against an unpopular initiative when they
think the still popular Venezuelan president has gone too
far. According to local opinion polls, most Venezuelans
still oppose the elimination of presidential term limits.


9. (C) During the state and local election campaigns, Chavez
threatened to cut off resources from states that voted for
the opposition several times during the campaign. It
appears that Chavez's supporters are making good on that
threat without involving Chavez. Cutting off revenue streams
and ignoring maintenance and general larceny may hobble local
government, but it also risks of alienating voters in
affected areas from the PSUV in future elections. Chavez and
his supporters tend to lose popular support when they act in
such a radical (vice populist) fashion.

CAULFIELD