STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS: WINNERS AND LOSERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 001633 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2028 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS: WINNERS AND LOSERS REF: CARACAS 001615 CARACAS 00001633 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. President Chavez emerges as both a loser and winner from the November 23 state and local elections. He must contend with more opposition governors in key states, as well as opposition mayors in important cities. Several opposition parties can point to somewhat encouraging electoral results in their efforts to build a democratic alternative to Chavismo. Moreover, the opposition won the Miranda and Tachira governorships and the Caracas mayoral race despite the Comptroller's decision to declare the leading opposition pre-candidates ineligible in those races. Close Chavez confidants lost key electoral races. On the other hand, Chavez's United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) demonstrated that it overwhelmingly dominates Venezuelan politics, securing 265 of 328 mayorships and defeating prominent dissident Chavistas and pro-government allies alike. Beyond Chavez, the newly elected Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, Sucre Borough Mayor Carlos Ocariz, and PSUV Governor of Lara Henri Falcon are among the big winners who attracted votes across class lines. Chavez could corner opposition winners by saddling them with responsibility without resources, while he retains power without accountability. End Summary. -------------- President Chavez - Winner and Loser -------------- ¶2. (C) At first glance, the Venezuelan president appears to have emerged from the state and local elections marginally weaker. By winning three more governorships than they did in 2004, as well as the Caracas mayorship, opposition parties can continue to try to build a democratic alternative to Chavez. Moreover, opposition parties won in key states, albeit not in the Orinoco Belt states of Anzoategui and Monagas. These elections produced new or returning political stars, Ledezma in Caracas, Capriles Radonski in Miranda, Salas Feo in Carabobo and Ocariz in the Sucre borough of Caracas. ¶3. (C) On the other hand, Chavez's PSUV party showed that it is by far the dominant political force in Venezuela. In addition, Chavez and the PSUV succeeded in crushing PSUV dissidents and allied parties at the polls. Chavez's closest confidants demonstrated that they do not have the electoral appeal that he does, countering any notion of Chavismo without Chavez. Overall, the PSUV expanded its control over mayorships. The Venezuelan president also has the legal tools in place to circumvent or starve the state and local governments won by the opposition. Outgoing PSUV administrations are already sacking local resources before handing over power to opposition winners (Septel). -------------- Winners -------------- ¶4. (C) PSUV: More Venezuelans voted for the PSUV ticket than they voted all other parties' tickets combined making the PSUV a formidable successor to Chavez's former party, the Fifth Republic Movement (MVR). Chavez's PSUV party won 17 of 22 gubernatorial races and 265 of 328 mayoral races. The PSUV enjoys a majority in 20 of 22 state assemblies. Some 5.4 million voters voted the PSUV ticket, a considerable improvement over the PSUV's unsuccessful effort to rally support for President Chavez's failed constitutional referendum in which only 4.3 million Venezuelans voted "yes." The PSUV's primary system for selecting candidates, while tightly controlled by the Venezuelan president, did convey democratic legitimacy to many of its candidates. Above all else, Chavez's intense campaigning in which he literally lifted the hands of most gubernatorial and mayoral candidates at PSUV rallies made a big difference at the polls. ¶5. (C) The Opposition: The opposition gained new democratic spaces winning three more governorships than it did four years ago, but failed to demonstrate it can command much more than its traditional four-plus million votes. The percentage of Venezuelans with an opposition governor increased from 25 percent to 40 percent. While the opposition did not win as many mayorships as it did four years ago, in many cases due to the lack of consensus candidates, it did elect new mayors in several important cities, including Caracas, Maracaibo CARACAS 00001633 002.2 OF 003 (Zulia),San Cristobal (Tachira),and Merida. Moreover, the opposition succeeded in rallying middle class voters to the polls and mounting more effective protect-the-vote campaigns. Opposition votes together with the votes for PSUV dissidents and independents totaled over five million votes. Consequently, any effort by Chavez to eliminate presidential term limits via referendum in 2009 should be a real political battle, not a foregone conclusion. ¶6. (C) Winners Within The Opposition: The much-discredited political parties that dominated Venezuela prior to Chavez demonstrated that they retain some regional strength, despite losing some ground in terms of mayorships. COPEI elected a governor (Tachira) and 11 mayors. Accion Democratica (AD) failed to win any governorships, but elected more mayorships than any other opposition party (19). Moreover, more Venezuelans voted the AD ticket than any other opposition party outside of Zulia. Nationwide, Manuel Rosales' Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) party won more votes than any opposition party (1.1 million - 561,000 without Zulia) nation-wide, more than AD (758,000),Primero Justicia (PJ) (485,000) and COPEI (421,000). UNT retains the governorship of Zulia and UNT candidates won seven mayorships, including Maracaibo. PJ succeeded in electing its first governor (Miranda) and won four mayorships. ¶7. (C) New Stars: Antonio Ledezma, of the opposition Alianza Bravo Pueblo party (ABP),scored the most surprising electoral upset in winning the Caracas mayorship. Ledezma has been one of Chavez's most strident critics and has been the driving force behind numerous, but often poorly attended, street demonstrations against government policies. The Caracas mayorship provides him with an important new platform from which to project himself. PJ Secretary General Carlos Ocariz demonstrated that the opposition can attract voters from poor neighborhoods, winning the Sucre Borough mayorship in Caracas, home of the emblematic Petare hillside slums. Henri Falcon, the widely respected PSUV mayor of Barquisimeto, showed that effective PSUV politicians can win support across class lines by winning a whopping 73 percent of the vote in the Lara gubernatorial race. -------------- Losers -------------- ¶8. (C) PSUV Dissidents and Alliance Partners: No PSUV dissidents won any major races, although the Barinas mayor only narrowly lost to Adan Chavez in the Barinas gubernatorial race. The incumbent governor of Carabobo state, Luis Acosta Carlez, who was expelled from the PSUV earlier this year, won only a little more than six percent of the vote in his failed bid for re-election. Abdala Makled, who campaigned as a pro-Chavez independent prior to his mid-November arrest on drug trafficking charges, finished a distant fourth in the Valencia mayoral race. Luis Tascon, who formed his own New Revolutionary Path party after being expelled from the PSUV, received only 3300 voters of 920,000 votes cast in the Libertador Borough mayoral race. The small, pro-Chavez Patria Para Todos candidates had hoped to win gubernatorial races in Guarico and Portuguesa, but lost both by wide margins. PPT candidates won only four mayorships. The formerly pro-Chavez Podemos party won only two mayorships and now has no governorships (after winning two governorships four years ago). ¶9. (C) Close Chavez Confidants: A number of prominent close Chavez acolytes lost at the polls or eked out victories. Incumbent Miranda governor and 1992 coup partner Diosdado Cabello, the person most frequently mentioned by pundits as a possible Chavez successor, lost his re-election bid. Former Justice and Interior Minister and 1992 coup partner Jessie Chacon lost his bid for the Sucre borough mayorship. Former Education Minister Aristobulo Isturiz, who received the most votes of any PSUV official in internal party elections, was defeated in the Caracas mayoral race. Brother of the Venezuelan president Adan Chavez narrowly escaped defeat in the Barinas gubernatorial race and former Vice President Jorge Rodriguez faced considerably more competition from former student leader Stalin Gonzalez in the Liberatador Borough mayoral race than local analysts believed possible. ¶10. (C) The Comptroller: Earlier this year, Comptroller Clodosbaldo Russian declared 272 current and former government officials ineligible to run for office based on administrative sanctions. Russian's ineligibles list was widely perceived to be an effort by Chavez to tilt the CARACAS 00001633 003.2 OF 003 electoral playing field in his favor in hotly contested states because it disproportionately affected the opposition. The list included the opposition's best candidates in three gubernatorial races (Anzoategui, Miranda, and Tachira) and the Caracas mayoral race. The opposition's alternative candidates, however, won three out of those four races anyway (not Anzoategui). ¶11. (C) Leopoldo Lopez: The Comptroller has succeeded in preventing outgoing Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez from running again for several years. Barring some relief from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, Lopez will not be able to run for a National Assembly seat in 2010 or for president in 2012. He is likely to find it much more difficult to remain a rising political star out of office, particularly with other young politicians holding key offices, such as Miranda Governor Enrique Capriles Radonski, Zulia Governor Pablo Perez, and Sucre Borough Mayor Carlos Ocariz. Lopez can take some solace in the fact that his protQgQ did win the Chacao borough mayorship, including over Manuel Rosales' hand-picked candidate in that race, who finished a distant fourth. CAULFIELD