CHAVEZ SPINS ELECTORAL RESULTS UNDERSCORING THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001625

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2028
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ SPINS ELECTORAL RESULTS UNDERSCORING THE
PSUV'S DOMINANCE

CARACAS 00001625 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: Chavez is seeking to spin the electoral
results of the November 23 state and local elections to his
favor. In a nationally-televised, five-hour long November 24
press conference with international journalists, the
Venezuelan president blasted media reporting that his United
Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) had "lost" in key races.
Chavez pointed to higher voter turn-out, stressed his
candidates' overall success in mayoral races, and asserted
that his PSUV party demonstrated a one million vote advantage
over the opposition. In the same press conference, Chavez
said he was amenable to a "people's initiative" to eliminate
presidential term limits. Chavez appears to be trying to
shape public perceptions that he retains overwhelming
electoral strength as he considers revisiting the
presidential term limits issue. Venezuela actually appears
almost evenly divided between the PSUV and all other parties
and eliminating presidential term limits, defeated once
already by voters, is by no means an easy hurdle. End
Summary.


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CHAVISMO THE WINNER?
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2. (C) Chavez took the international media to task at a
five-hour press conference November 24 for reporting that the
results of the state and local elections were a loss for his
PSUV party. At the media event, which was broadcast by
mandatory "cadena" via radio and TV, he sought to paint the
electoral results as favorable to Chavismo. The President
reported that the PSUV had won 77 percent of the
governorships and 80 percent of mayorships, and that those
who had "betrayed" the revolution -- pro-government dissident
candidates -- "had died politically." He pointed out that
the PSUV won in Sucre, Guarico, Trujillo and Aragua states
(and took the capital in Carabobo),all areas where sitting
governors broke with the PSUV. The complete results for the
mayorships had still not been released as of the morning of
November 25, but preliminary results indicate that the PSUV
won big (over 280 wins versus less than 60 for the
opposition). The lack of electoral alliances among
opposition candidates in many mayoral races was an important
factor in the PSUV's strong showing at the municipal level.


3. (C) Chavez asserted that the PSUV had received 20
percent more votes -- 5,504,902 in total -- since the failed
referendum in December 2007, which was lost largely because
of abstentionism among Chavista voters. Chavez contended
that the opposition had actually lost 10 percent of its votes
-- out of a total of about 4,280,000 -- yielding a lead of
some 1,300,000 votes for Chavismo over the opposition.
According to news reports based on the CNE, the margin
between the PSUV (5,422,064) and the opposition (4,417,497)
was slightly smaller, and excluded 463,372 votes listed as
going to "dissident" candidates as well as another 200,000 or
so votes went to indenpendent, non-aligned parties. There
were also 459,000 nullified votes. If one were to add the
unified oppsition, dissident and independent votes as a
non-Chavista voting bloc, the total is over 5 million votes.


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CONTROVERSY IN TACHIRA, BARINAS
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4. (C) Tachira and Barinas States are the only
gubernatorial races where there remains some controversy.
PSUV supporters in Tachira have asked the CNE for a recount,
and director of the local electoral office Bladmir Perez told
the press November 24 that the challenge would be passed to
Caracas for the CNE to decide. In Barinas, PSUV dissident
gubernatorial candidate Julio Cesar Reyes -- who lost to
Chavez's brother, Adan, by about 5 percent -- has claimed
electoral fraud and asked for a vote audit. Reyes claims
that the results were clearly irregular, noting that PSUV
deputy Marcos Garrido called him at 5 p.m. on November 23 to
congratulate him for his win. The closely contested race, in
Chavez's home state, is perhaps the most likely to have
encouraged some degree of fraud. Adan Chavez was running to
replace his father, Hugo de los Reyes, who was ineligible for
a third reelection. Former GBRV Ambassador Ignacio Arcaya
told us that when he served as Minister of Interior in 2002,

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Chavez told him to ensure that Hugo de los Reyes was elected.

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TERM LIMITS
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5. (SBU) Regarding the effort to revive the issue of
constitutional term limits, the President commented that "I
have said that I will not propose (a referendum),but neither
can I avoid that someone will do it (for me) because it is
the right of the people given to them by the Constitution,
that these same people approved in the referendum." He added
that the PSUV could propose a referendum on term limits under
the Constitution, but noted that "that is not my priority
right now." According to Article 341 of the Venezuelan
constitution, the amendment process can be initiated by 15
percent of registered citizens or 30 percent of the deputies
in the National Assembly. A public referendum should then be
held within 30 days of the petition process or National
Assembly vote. The opposition -- and most constitutional
lawyers -- contend that it would be unconstitutional for any
party to put to a referendum the elimination of presidential
term limits because this proposal was already defeated at the
polls in the December 2007 constitutional referendum.
Another possiblility, alhough less likely, is a call for a
constituent assembly that would seek to draft a new
Constitution with no-term limits.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) President Chavez remains politically popular and his
PSUV is by far the strongest political party in Venezuela.
One of Chavez's key victories in the state and local
elections has been the failure of any dissident candidate to
win a governorship, shoring up the PSUV and its machine as
the only "revolutionary" game in town. Moreover, the small
left-wing parties Podemos and Patria Para Todos now have no
governors and will be hard-pressed to demonstrate a viable
"third way" between government and opposition.


7. (C) Chavez now appears eager to initiate the process of
eliminating presidential term limits in 2009 from a position
of perceived electoral strength. Chavez and his advisors
understand that launching such a bid would be difficult if he
were to acknowledge that the the opposition had been able to
match his strength at the polls. Thus, by not factoring in
the dissident vote and the votes for independent parties, he
is trying to show that his PSUV has a million votes on the
oppsition. The reality, however, is that Venezuela remains
almost evenly divided between pro- and anti-Chavistas, and
getting public approval for the elimination of presidential
term limits is by no means a foregone conclusion.

CAULFIELD