OPPOSITION CARVES OUT A NEW SPACE FOR ITSELF,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 001622

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CARVES OUT A NEW SPACE FOR ITSELF,
WINNING SEVERAL KEY STATES ON NOVEMBER 23

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: By winning five of the most populous and
resource rich states in the country, the opposition opened up
new political space in Venezuela. The percentage of
Venezuelans with an opposition governor increased from 25 to
40 percent and voter turnout was 65 percent, well above the
historical participation rate of 45 percent to 55 percent for
such elections. Moreover, the opposition was able to get out
its middle class support for the first time in several
elections. Chavez -- who had pledged to win nothing less
than all 22 gubernatorial races -- stressed in his
post-election press conference that his United Socialist
Party of Venezuela (PSUV) 17 governorships was an
indisputable victory. He pledged to respect the will of the
majority and asked "Who now can say there is a dictatorship
in Venezuela?" The National Electoral Council (CNE) is still
tabulating the results of the 328 mayoral races, but
announced already that opposition candidates won in several
major cities, including Caracas, Maracaibo, and in four of
Caracas' five boroughs. EMBASSY Caracas deployed eleven
Embassy teams to monitor the elections throughout Caracas and
in six states. They visited 98 voting centers and reported
only scattered irregularities. End Summary.

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THE RESULTS
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2. (C) Venezuelans came out to vote in unprecedented
numbers for state and local elections, almost certainly due
in large part to unusually high voter turnout among
middle-class Venezuelans. The CNE reports that 65.4 percent
of the population voted, far exceeding historical voting
rates between 45 and 55 percent for state and local
elections. With the addition of Carabobo State (2.3
million),Miranda State (2.7 million),and the Caracas
municipality (2.1 million),approximately 40 percent of
Venezuelans now live in jurisdictions governed by the
opposition versus 15 percent prior to the elections.
According to the first bulletin issued by the CNE, the PSUV
maintained control over 17 gubernatorial seats by wide
margins, excluding the close win of Chavez's brother, Adan,
over PSUV dissident candidate Julio Cesar Reyes, 49.63 to
44.58 percent. Informal reports indicate that the nationwide
final vote tally shows a near 50-50 split between the PSUV
and opposition/dissident parties.


3. (C) The opposition's gubernatorial wins in Tachira and
Carabobo States were comparably less decisive, with Cesar
Perez Vivas eking out a victory over the PSUV's Leonardo
Salcedo, 49.54 to 48.04 percent and Henrique Salas Feo
winning 47.72 percent over Mario Silva's 44.29 percent. In
Miranda State, the opposition's Henrique Capriles Radonski
defeated PSUV governor Diosdado Cabello by six points, 52.56
percent to 46.64 percent. Despite Chavez's frequent campaign
visits to Zulia State, the opposition won the governorship
with a comfortable margin, Pablo Perez receiving 53.59
percent to PSUV candidate Giancarlo Di Martino's 45.02
percent. The incumbent governor of Nueva Esparta scored the
opposition's strongest win, 57.64 percent to the PSUV's 41.69
percent.


4. (C) In Caracas, the opposition's Antonio Ledezma won an
upset victory in the closely contested metropolitan mayorship
race, 52.45 percent to PSUV candidate Aristobulo Izturiz's 44
percent. The opposition also won the mayorships in four of
the five boroughs (Sucre, Chacao, El Hatillo and Baruta). In
Libertador borough, the PSUV's Jorge Rodriguez won with 53.05
percent of the vote, but opposition contender and former
student leader Stalin Gonzalez doubled polling predictions by
receiving 41 percent, suggesting some degree of PSUV weakness
in a traditionally Chavista stronghold. The CNE has not
announced the results of most mayoral races yet, but outgoing
Zulia governor Manuel Rosales won the Maracaibo mayoral race.
The PSUV reportedly won the Barquisimeto mayoral race.

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CHAVEZ ACCEPTS LOSSES WITH APLOMB
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5. (SBU) Despite a pledge to win nothing less than all 22
governorships, Chavez reacted like a statesman to the news
that the opposition had made several key victories.
Interrupting the PSUV party leaders' post-election early

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morning November 24 press conference, he repeatedly held up a
copy of the 1999 Constitution in front of the media,
contending that "today we are consulting the people, the
voice of the nation. What they say, we must recognize."
After recognizing the triumph of the opposition in the
Caracas mayorship and Miranda and Zulia States, Chavez asked
rhetorically, "Who can say now that there is a dictatorship
in Venezuela and a concentration of power in his hands?" He
asked the opposition to "put its feet on the ground" and
"recognize that we are and we will be respectful of the will
of the majority." The President immediately added, however,
that the "(electoral) map is dressed almost completely in
red," that the opposition should not think that they have
"overthrown" the PSUV, and that it is time to "deepen and
extend" his socialist revolution. He also acknowledged that
he is recuperating from bronchitis.

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EMBASSY ELECTION MONITORING
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6. (SBU) EMBASSY deployed eleven informal election monitoring
teams throughout Caracas and to six states. EMBASSY informed
the MFA of this effort via diplomatic note. MFA Protocol
Chief called Charge November 22 to try to discourage any
Embassy informal election monitoring. Charge' pushed back
and assured the MFA that EMBASSY teams would respect the
electoral authorities at all polling stations. EMBASSY teams
visited a total of 98 voting centers (close to one percent of
all voting centers) and were invited into 78. Teams noted
scattered irregularities such as malfunctioning machines,
insufficient poll workers, wait times of three to five hours,
and indelible ink that washed off easily. The PSUV set up
tents to distribute food and drink near some polling
stations, violating a ban on election day campaigning.
Tupamaros, a pro-Chavez political group riding en masse on
motorbikes, appeared to be discouraging opposition turnout in
Merida.


7. (SBU) Chief among electorate complaints were slow moving
lines. A number of elderly voters reported that their
ballots were canceled after exceeding the maximum time limit
of two three-minute voting intervals. During a 4:00 p.m.
press conference, National Electoral Council (CNE) rectors
stressed that polling stations would remain open until the
last voter in line was able to cast their ballot. Opposition
leaders complained that some 450 polling stations without
waiting voters, remained open at the behest of the military
in predominately Chavista neighborhoods to allow
pro-government parties to try to rally more voters to the
polls. Nevertheless, the opposition appears to have won the
races where this occurred. All EMBASSY teams returned safely
and without incident.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) While the government won the vast majority of
governorships, the opposition made noteworthy gains by
winning Tachira, Carabobo, and Miranda States in addition to
retaining Zulia and Nueva Esparta. Along with the Caracas
mayorship, the opposition can assert local control over the
most densely-populated and resource-rich states in the
country. Its next challenge will be to make effective and
coordinated use of this new democratic space, rather than
once again succumbing to the in-fighting and personal
rivalries that have hindered the opposition's political
influence to date. Pundits are already warning that
newly-elected opposition officials now confront tremendous
challenges trying to govern some of Venezuela's most
problem-ridden polities, particularly Caracas.


9. (C) President Chavez remains Venezuela's most popular
politician and retains full control over all branches of the
central government. Although the Venezuelan president has
failed to achieve his outsized pledge to win all 22
governorships, his PSUV party picked up three-quarters of the
governorships (17/22) and consolidated itself as the only
"revolutionary" party with strength at the polls. Chavista
dissidents or erstwhile partners failed to win any of the
gubernatorial races, and the PSUV party may have polled as
many votes as all the opposition and dissident parties
combined. Nevertheless, the political landscape in
Venezuela has become more pluralistic. The opposition has
also learned valuable lessons for a second year in a row

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about getting out the vote and protecting votes cast --
opposition victories came in those states where they had the
most robust presence of witnesses. With the opposition's
victories and lessons learned, Chavez will now have a tougher
time of it if he pursues the elimination of presidential term
limits in 2009. End Comment.

CAULFIELD