HIGH CRIME EFFECTS VOTERS BUT SPARES CANDIDATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001621

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2018
TAGS: ASEC CASC PGOV VE
SUBJECT: HIGH CRIME EFFECTS VOTERS BUT SPARES CANDIDATES

Classified By: Francisco Fernandez, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.4(d)


1. (SBU) Venezuela's spiraling crime has resulted in
weekends with a homicide every hour in Caracas and earned the
nation the unflattering title of violent crime capital of the
world. Recent polling by Alfredo Keller showed 78% of
respondents thought crime was worse this year and 67% opined
that drug trafficking had also gotten worse. Paradoxically,
such crippling statistics have not been laid at the feet of
Chavez and his Bolivarian revolution, nor has the fractured
opposition made much of an election issue over law and order.

TEFLON AND FATALISM


2. (C) Crime has been a constant specter over the lives of
Caraquenos since the oil boom of the 1970s when consulting
experts from Scotland Yard had their wallets lifted before
leaving Maiquetia airport. According to Luis Cedeno of the
crime NGO INCOSEC, (protect throughout) 1999 penal code
reform that released 12,000 criminals with no supervisory
program and the increased availability of firearms due to the
rise of narco-trafficking in Venezuela has created a lethal
combination. As in other countries, crime and particularly
violent crime, falls disproportionately on the poor. In
Venezuela this has created a sense of fatalism among Chavez'
electoral base that crime is part of their "lot in life."
Interestingly, culpability does not stick to the charismatic
Chavez; instead, his supporters blame the aides and
appointees who "don't carry out his instructions". Minister
of Interior and Justice Ramon Rodriguez Chacin who was sacked
in August after regularly extolling falling crime statistics
as headlines , in contrast, tallied record body counts.
Ironically, former Interior and Justice Minister and PSUV
Sucre borough candidate Jesse Chacon is claiming he reduced
crime by over 60 percent during his tenure.

GORDIAN KNOT


3. (SBU) Candidates in Venezuela don't run for office on law
and order campaigns since crime is seen as an intractable
problem. In fact, few even make security a plank in their
platforms. Crime and security require coordinated efforts
and an effective judiciary. Governors have scant ability to
raise funds and rely on money from the central government.
Local mayors are able to raise revenue to fund more or better
equipped police forces. However, given that most major
Venezuelan cities are made up of multiple municipalities and
crime is highly mobile efforts by one mayor can't contain
neighboring criminal gangs. Since criminal courts have a
conviction rate of less than 8%, most arrests do not
translate into convictions.



4. (C) COMMENT: Although foremost in Venezuelan's
consciousness, crime has not been an effective political tool
to propel a candidate into office. If opposition parties do
increase their representation in elected offices and newly
elected mayors can maintain enough unity to coordinate a
police strategy, the results might make fighting crime an
effective political platform in three or four years.
Conversely, if newly elected opposition governors and mayors
are unable to combat crime, unlike Venezuela's president,
they may be blamed by voters in the next election.
End Comment.
CAULFIELD