STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS -- 48 HOURS AWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001619

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2028
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS -- 48 HOURS AWAY

CARACAS 00001619 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: To the end, Chavez has campaigned hard on
behalf of his PSUV candidates in swing states before the
November 23 state and local elections. The campaigns
officially closed November 20 in the midst of torrential
rains that have caused a dozen deaths and are forecasted to
last through the elections, creating yet another hurdle for
voters to overcome. Political observers tell us that the
opposition could win between three and nine governorships and
50 to 100 mayorships, but many races are statistically too
close to call and will come down to the ability of either
side to deliver voters to the polls. The opposition appears
to have squandered its opportunity following December's
failed referendum to make significant electoral gains,
although even taking just densely-populated Carabobo or
Miranda States out of PSUV control would be a major loss for
Chavez, who has pledged to win all 22 governorships. His
strategy to seek indefinite reelection through another
referendum or constituent assembly is likely to rest heavily
on his perceived success on November 23. End Summary.

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POLLS SHOW CHAVEZ NOT INVINCIBLE
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2. (C) Datanalysis pollster Luis Vicente Leon told POLOFF
November 19 that the opposition was only secure in winning
Zulia, Carabobo, and Nueva Esparta States. They could win a
maximum of eight -- including Tachira, Cojedes, Miranda,
Sucre, and Guarico States -- but he echoed fellow pollster
Alfredo Keller in contending that these races were
statistically at a tie, with neither candidate enough points
ahead to be able to forecast a likely winner. Vicente Leon
also suggested that PSUV dissident and Barinas mayor Julio
Cesar Reyes could win the governorship, contending that the
success of even one dissident could dramatically change the
political landscape. Miranda and Carabobo States, the second
and third most densely-populated states in Venezuela, would
each constitute an addition of about 10 percent of the
population under a non-PSUV governor. Currently, the
opposition and Podemos party's four governorships together
contain about 25 percent of the population.


3. (C) Polling from the prominent firm Keller and
Associates conducted in November indicates that the majority
of Venezuelans (71 percent) do not believe there is a an
economic crisis currently. They also do not blame Chavez
directly for problems, with 61 percent of respondents
claiming that when Chavez's promises are not implemented, the
blame lies with "those surrounding him." However, the same
poll showed that 64 percent of respondents believe that
Chavez is responsible for allowing corruption in the
government and 62 percent reject the idea of indefinite
reelection. (Note: The poll explains this apparent
contradiction as a result of the high personal popularity
enjoyed by Chavez. End Note.) The polling also indicates
that between 50 and 65 percent of respondents believe that
the opposition is not planning a coup, will maintain the
social missions if elected, and is not lying when it
denounces problems. In its conclusions, the Keller report
argues that abstentionism will be the key factor in
determining the outcome of the elections.

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"IN MIRANDA, CHAVEZ RULES"
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4. (C) In Miranda State, Chavez has tried to rally support
for his PSUV candidate for governor, Diosdado Cabello, by
seeking to shift blame for enduring housing shortages on to
wealthy residents. On November 17, the President publicized
that the state was in the process of building over 700
apartments for low-income families, with much of the cost
being born by the National Housing Bank. The same day, he
called for the eradication of large land holdings, telling
supporters that "we have to liberate the land from the estate
holders," noting that many owners lived in the cities and
left their land abandoned. Chavez contended that "a group of
people that own the riches, refuse to the majority the
minimum resources to be able to live. (These) are the
greatest inequalities." While standing next to Cabello at a
rally, Chavez told supporters that "in Miranda, Chavez rules.
Never again will the squalid (opposition) return to rule in
Miranda."


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5. (C) Diosdado Cabello announced November 18 that he was
asking the Ministry of Justice to investigate a mass cell
phone message, allegedly originating from a company in
Maracaibo, that advised recipients not to vote for him
because he had "betrayed the people." He alluded to a backer
who had paid the company to send the message. Cabello will
likely finger Zulia governor and Maracaibo opposition mayoral
candidate Manuel Rosales, or one of his associates, given the
smear campaign carried out by Chavez and his PSUV cronies
over the election campaign. On November 18, National
Assembly Deputy Mario Isea pledged that Rosales will be
arrested for corruption after the elections, whether he wins
or loses. Also in Zulia, the mayor of the Paez municipality
accused Rosales of discriminating against the indigenous
minorities that live in the state by abandoning promised
works in the Guarjira area.


6. (C) Political observers have told us that Chavez will
again seek to overturn the constitutional prohibition on
serving more than two presidential terms, despite the failure
of his referendum in December 2007. His ability to pursue
this change, however, requires that the PSUV retain control
over the majority of the governorships and population. If
the PSUV wins big on November 23, Chavez is likely to
capitalize on his victory by convening a constituent assembly
or calling for a referendum to allow him to seek additional
terms after his expires in 2011. However, if the opposition
makes significant gains and claims gubernatorial seats in
densely-populated states like Carabobo, Miranda, and Zulia,
Chavez may wait to revive the term issue until he is able to
shore up the PSUV's damaged image rather than risk an
additional electoral failure.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Chavez has sought to bury the debate over issues
under a veil of political polarization, distractionist coup
claims, and personalism. Defeating abstentionism among
voters on both sides will likely prove the key factor in the
elections, and opposition voters may have fewer reasons to
fight their way to the polls than Chavistas who are motivated
by government jobs, subsidies, and the PSUV machine. Even
the recent stormy weather and mudslides are likely to
disproportionately affect potential opposition voters in
Miranda State, given that much of the damage has been in the
more affluent municipalities. Nevertheless, neither side is
likely to be able to claim a big victory on November 23. The
opposition is poised to disappoint early, unrealistic hopes
for taking as many as half of the 22 governorships, while
even losing just one or two densely-populated states, such as
Carabobo or Miranda, would greatly diminish PSUV control over
a relatively large segment of the population. At least one
dissident gubernatorial candidate, Lenny Manuitt of Guarico
State, is rumored to be preparing to cry fraud in the likely
event that she loses.
CAULFIELD