STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS: NINE STORIES TO WATCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 001615

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS: NINE STORIES TO WATCH

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. President Chavez will retain full control
over the Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela
(GBRV) no matter what the results of the November 23 state
and local elections. Nevertheless, these elections may
influence the extent to which Chavez can accelerate his
Bolivarian revolution. The results will also measure the
opposition's ability to build a credible democratic
alternative. The opposition is desperately trying to gain
new democratic spaces, while President Chavez will have the
opportunity to measure his overall electoral strength before
likely action in 2009 to eliminate term limits. Chavez's
United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) seeks to
demonstrate that it can be a formidable electoral machine,
particularly in the wake of Chavez's first electoral defeat
in the December 2007 constitutional referendum. Opposition
parties are competing among themselves to establish greater
relevance. A number of the Venezuelan president's closest
confidants, including his brother Adan Chavez, as well as a
number of PSUV dissidents and erstwhile partners, are
competing in surprisingly close electoral contests. End
Summary.

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Interpreting the Results
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2. (C) Opposition Gains?: While the opposition has expressed
outsized ambitions unlikely to be achieved for these
elections, it stands ready to spin whatever result as a
victory. The opposition elected only two governors four
years ago. Two Podemos governors broke with the government
last year have joined their ranks. Pundits of all political
persuasions believe President Chavez's United Socialist Party
of Venezuela (PSUV) gubernatorial candidates will win the
majority of this year's 22 gubernatorial races. After
suggesting publicly that the opposition could win as many as
12 governorships earlier this year, most opposition leaders
now suggest that winning four to eight gubernatorial races
(including Podemos) should be considered an electoral
"victory." If the opposition succeeds in winning four or
more governorships in key states and doubles its number of
mayorships (currently 47; there are 328 mayoral races),the
opposition would have considerably more democratic space and
government resources with which to work. In addition, the
Embassy would find considerably more state and local partners
with which to cooperate.


3. (C) Total Number of Votes: President Chavez and Zulia
Governor Manuel Rosales won 7.3 and 4.2 million votes,
respectively, in the 2006 presidential election. Chavez
polled only 4.3 million votes for his proposed constitutional
reforms in the December 2007 referendum, while 4.5 million
Venezuelans voted against the measure. Earlier this year,
Chavez said he intended to pursue another referendum in 2009
to eliminate presidential term limits. He will presumably
use the total number of PSUV votes in the upcoming state and
local elections to gauge his relative electoral strength. If
PSUV candidates collectively poll close to Chavez's high
watermark of 7.3 million votes, Chavez would be in a much
better position for such a referendum than if PSUV candidates
collectively poll closer to his low watermark of 4.3 million
votes. The opposition has never been able to poll much more
than four million votes, but they are hoping to demonstrate
increasing overall electoral strength. Traditionally, about
half of the voters vote in sub-national elections, meaning
that both sides have their work cut our for them.


4. (C) Chavismo without Chavez?: Chavista dissidents, with
few exceptions, have become politically obsolete in short
order, but a few of them have an outside chance of winning
elected office against the "official" Chavez candidate. PSUV
dissidents and candidates from small pro-government parties
are waging surprisingly strong campaigns in a small number of
gubernatorial races. For example, Barinas Mayor Julio Cesar
Reyes is reportedly capitalizing on local resentment of the
Chavez clan and giving Adan Chavez, the Venezuelan
president's brother and confidant, a real challenge. A Reyes
victory would be a real slap at the Chavez family -- Chavez's
father has governed the state for eight years. At a minimum,
Chavista dissidents will likely siphon off votes from PSUV
front-runners, undermining their electoral mandate.

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Key Personalities

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5. (C) The 1992 Coupsters: Miranda Governor Diosdado
Cabello, the person most widely mentioned locally as a
possible Chavez successor, is in a close re-election race
against Baruta Mayor Henrique Capriles Radonski. Former
Interior and Justice Minister Jessie Chacon appears to be
trailing Primero Justicia Secretary General Carlos Ocariz in
the mayoral race in the densely populated Sucre Borough of
Caracas. Former Bolivar governor Antonio Rojas Suarez is
running a strong gubernatorial race against an unpopular PSUV
incumbent governor, but splitting opposition votes. Local
pundits believe Rojas Suarez, who reportedly drove the tank
that crashed the gates of the Miraflores presidential palace
in 1992, may be staying in the race at the opposition's
expense to get back into Chavez's good graces.


6. (C) Rosales Versus Lopez: Three strong opposition
candidates are competing for the mayorship of the upscale
Chacao Borough of Caracas. Outgoing popular mayor Leopoldo
Lopez is backing Councilman Emilio Grateron over his own UNT
party's candidate, Liliana Hernandez. Zulia Governor Manuel
Rosales is widely believed to have hand-picked Hernandez and
most pundits perceive the Chacao mayoral race as a proxy war
between Rosales and Lopez for leadership within the
opposition. Barred by the GBRV from running for office based
on administrative measures, Lopez may have real difficulty
staying relevant politically, particularly if his protQgQ
Grateron loses. Primero Justicia is hoping that its
candidate, Ramon Muchacho, can defeat both Grateron and
Hernandez.


7. (C) New Stars?: Barquisimeto Mayor Henri Falcon, who
enjoys a reputation across party lines as an excellent
administrator, is a strong favorite to win the Lara
gubernatorial race. The PSUV expelled him briefly before
endorsing his candidacy because PSUV insiders know that
Falcon could win with or without the PSUV. For many pundits,
Falcon represents the democratic hope within Chavismo. PJ
Secretary General Carlos Ocariz has run a smart four-year
campaign to win the Sucre Borough Mayorship in Caracas after
narrowly losing the same race four years ago. Should Ocariz
win in a borough that contains Petare, Caracas' emblematic
hillside slums, he would demonstrate that opposition has the
potential, if it works hard and smart enough, to secure votes
from Chavez's base.

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The Parties
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7. (C) PSUV's Maiden Voyage: Chavez's PSUV party was formed
in 2007 and stumbled in its first electoral test in the
run-up to the December 2007 constitutional referendum.
Unlike Chavez's previous party, the Fifth Republic Movement,
the PSUV, despite claiming over five million members, failed
to deliver voters to the polls last year. The state and
local elections will be the first time that the PSUV is
actually on the ballot and local pundits will be watching to
see whether the PSUV has evolved into a genuine electoral
machine. According to local opinion polls, more voters say
they identify with the PSUV than with all other political
parties combined.


8. (C) Where do Chavez's Allied Parties Go?: Chavez has been
helped by a number of small, pro-government parties, but his
decision to support only PSUV gubernatorial candidates
alienated these groups. Podemos broke with Chavez prior to
the constitutional referendum. It stands to lose its two
governorships due to term limits and may have trouble staying
relevant. Patria Para Todos (PPT) supports Chavez in name
only at this point, and party leaders are likely to break
with Chavez in the not too distant future, particularly if
Chavez tries to eliminate presidential term limits. Even the
Communist Party (PCV) has been put off by the PSUV
high-handedness.


9. (C) Comeback?: The two political parties that dominated
Venezuela's political landscape prior to Chavez, Democratic
Action (AD) and the Christian Democrats (COPEI),had largely
been supplanted in the opposition spotlight by newer parties
(or spin-offs),such as Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) and Primero
Justicia (PJ). AD boycotted the 2005 parliamentary and 2006
presidential elections, and decided late to ask its
supporters to vote "no" in the December 2007 constitutional
referendum. Pundits believe that both parties' residual
party structures and known candidates outside of Caracas will

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help AD and COPEI secure a greater share of elected offices
than they currently have.

CAULFIELD