CHAVEZ FIRES UP THE BASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001599

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2028
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ FIRES UP THE BASE

CARACAS 00001599 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: During visits to Anzoategui, Barinas, and
Zulia States from November 14 to 16, Chavez renewed his
threats to arrest Zulia governor and Maracaibo mayoral
candidate Manuel Rosales. He also told supporters to "stay
in the streets" following the vote and "stay alert" against
alleged opposition plans to dispute the election tallies.
The National Electoral Council (CNE) has reacted in
uncharacteristic haste against violations by several media
outlets which disregarded the November 15 suspension of
broadcasting polling data, pledging to open administrative
investigations into several pro-government newspapers and TV
programs. End Summary.

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CHAVEZ RENEWS ATTACKS AGAINST OPPOSITION
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2. (SBU) At a November 16 rally in Zulia State, Chavez
announced that current governor and opposition mayoral
candidate Manuel Rosales is a "brazen thief" and is planning
to flee Venezuela for one of his allegedly dubiously-acquired
multiple properties in the United States. Chavez told
supporters that Rosales "wants to see me dead, but I only
want to see him dead politically, and I announce that he is
going to jail." The President promised to provide new
information in the coming days that add to the allegations he
has already lodged against Rosales, which include his
involvement in a purported coup plot against the President,
narcotrafficking, and corruption. Chavez also pledged a "new
Zulian era" starting on November 23 and said he would to use
Russian assistance to build a nuclear reactor in the state,
should his PSUV candidate for governor, Maracaibo mayor Gian
Carlo Di Martino, win. The same day, Vice President Ramon
Carrizales announced that Rosales would lose the immunity
granted by his office on election day and threatened him with
jail, arguing that Rosales should be "detained without
special proceedings" once he is no longer governor.


3. (SBU) Chavez traveled to Barinas State November 15 for
the third time this election season to offer his support to
his brother, Adan Chavez, who is running for the
governorship. The President was accompanied by his father,
current governor Hugo de los Reyes Chavez, his mother, and
his other five siblings, including Anibal, who is running for
the mayorship of their hometown of Sabaneta. The President
told his supporters that Barinas represents an "example of
the socialist revolution," and called pro-government
dissident gubernatorial candidate Julio Cesar Reyes a
"traitor" and said he should be rebaptized as "Judas Cesar."
He threatened that "if they (the opposition or Cesar Reyes)
win Barinas, it would be for me a punch to the gut," and
asked voters to "clean the rats" out of the state --
presumably a reference to Cesar Reyes. A Catholic church in
Barinas municipality was graffitied the day following
Chavez's visit with messages to remove the bishop, "Viva Adan
Chavez, Governor," and "fatherland, socialism, or death."
The messages came three days after Bishop Ramon Antonio
Linares Sandoval, of the Barinas diocese, denounced in a
press conference that his church was being "threatened" by
Chavistas.


4. (SBU) Chavez visited Anzoategui State November 14 and
stumped alongside PSUV governor Tarek William Saab, who is
seeking reelection. The President told his supporters that
"if the opposition does not want to go to vote, don't go, but
not a single Chavista can stay home without voting." He
added that "the opposition has spread the idea that the
military are sold, that they're worthless, and that to win,
(the opposition) would eliminate them." Chavez asked his
supporters to stay in the street after voting and be wary
against opposition plans to steal the vote, asserting that
"nobody should go home after voting, the patrols (grassroots
activists) in the streets, the battalions in the streets, and
I will have the armed forces in the streets, to see who
dares." William Lara, PSUV candidate for the Guarico State
governorship, echoed Chavez's claims the same day, asserting
that the opposition -- including pro-government third party
Patria Para Todos -- is trying to "create chaos and generate
hate in the oppositionist sectors in order to assume violent
conduct," and asked Chavistas to "stay in the streets"
following the vote.

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CNE REACTS TO POLLING VIOLATION

CARACAS 00001599 002.2 OF 002


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5. (SBU) CNE president Tibisay Lucena pledged November 17
to open an administrative investigation into former Vice
President Jose Vicente Rangel's TV program, "Jose Vicente
Today," for announcing polling results on pro-government
Televen TV hours after a one week cut-off on broadcasting the
information, which is mandated by the CNE. Vicente Rangel
apologized for the error and contended that he had recorded
the show several days prior to the cut-off, which was on
November 15, and in the interim had been too busy to remember
about the planned broadcast. Lucena pointed out that a local
radio program in Guarico State and the pro-government daily
Vea had committed the same violation and would also face an
investigation. On November 16, Vea published an article
entitled "Starting Today It Is Prohibited to Publish Polls"
on the page directly opposite an article summarizing the
findings of a poll from American Opinion Research that
favored the PSUV.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Chavez's campaign remains focused on energizing his
supporters to get out to the polls with threats of opposition
plans to steal the vote. Adding fuel to the fire, however,
he is now asking Chavistas to stay out in the streets after
voting while simultaneously threatening military action.
Although Venezuela has little history of election-related
violence and several political observers have told us they
see a new degree of voter apathy and dispassion this year,
Chavez's message of grassroots resistance could potentially
result in isolated cases of violence in areas with contested
races. The CNE's admonishment of former Vice President
Rangel and pro-government daily Vea are only token actions
during an election period in which the CNE repeatedly
declined to address President Chavez's violations of election
rules. The GBRV and PSUV remain synonymous for all intents
and purposes. End Comment.
CAULFIELD