STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS -- 10 DAYS AWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001582

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HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2028
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS -- 10 DAYS AWAY

CARACAS 00001582 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: With just over a week until the November
23 state and local elections, President Chavez is vigorously
supporting his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV)
candidates. He is simultaneously calling for arrests of
opposition figures and pledging to make campaign stops in
eleven states over the next week. Opposition insiders and
pollsters believe the opposition could win six to eight of 22
gubernatorial races and double the number of mayoral seats
that the opposition holds now. The election is likely to
come down to which side is better able to mobilize its
followers to the polls, an area in which the Government of
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) enjoys a decisive
resource advantage over the opposition. End Summary.

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CHAVEZ, OPPOSITION FIGHTING ABSTENTIONISM
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2. (C) Prominent pollster Alfredo Keller told Poloffs
November 14 that he believed the November 23 state and local
elections would be largely decided based on how successful
the opposition and PSUV are at overcoming abstentionist
sentiments among each side's supporters. Keller said opinion
polls may prove inaccurate because some 90 percent of
Venezuelans suggest that they intend to vote, but a much
smaller and unpredictable percentage will actually do so.
Keller said that in recent focus groups, Chavistas lack the
energy and enthusiasm that they have displayed in previous
elections. He also suggested that nonaligned ("ni-ni") and
opposition-oriented voters may feel threatened by Chavez's
fiery verbal attacks against key opposition figures and could
be easily dissuaded from voting by long lines at the polls.


3. (C) Keller said there are few races in which an opposition
contender has enough of a lead -- at least ten points -- to
be considered a sure winner in advance. Keller also
suggested that the Accion Democratica (AD) party would
feature prominently in several gubernatorial races involving
AD or ex-AD candidates (Sucre, Merida, Cojedes, Zulia, Nueva
Esparta) and may emerge considerably strengthened after the
upcoming state and local elections. He reiterated what other
political observers have told us, that Chavez has managed to
raise his popularity and that of his PSUV candidates by
campaigning on their behalf and linking their political
success to him personally.

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CHAVEZ'S CAMPAIGNING HARD/OPPOSITION DIVISIONS REMAIN
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4. (C) Chavez continues to focus his campaigning in
opposition-leaning and swing states. On November 10, at a
meeting in the presidential palace with several dozen PSUV
candidates, Chavez discussed strategic plans with the
aspirants and designated Miraflores Palace the PSUV "command
center," again blurring the line between state and party.
The following day, Chavez announced that he planned upcoming
campaign stops in Anzoategui, Merida, Miranda, Nueva Esparta,
Tachira, and Yaracuy States. He also said he planned to do
stump speeches on behalf of his PSUV candidates in Caracas,
Cojedes, Aragua, Sucre, and Zulia States -- all during the
final week before the November 21 cut-off for campaigning.
The CNE forbids campaigning or alcohol sales 48 hours prior
to the elections.


5. (C) The opposition continues to bicker among itself in
many races and remains the target of fierce verbal attacks
from Chavez. The Venezuelan president threatened November 8
to arrest Sucre State governor Ramon Martinez -- on vague
allegations of an opposition secessionist plot -- and pledged
to mobilize tanks to "defend the revolutionary government and
country" if Carabobo State residents fail to elect PSUV
gubernatorial candidate Mario Silva. Unable to decide on a
consensus opposition candidate, three strong opposition
candidates are running to replace Leopoldo Lopez as mayor of
the Chacao borough of Caracas. The opposition also has two
strong candidates competing in the gubernatorial races in
Bolivar and Yaracuy, significantly diminishing its electoral
prospects in those states. Candidates may still withdraw
from the races, but the deadline to remove their names from
the ballots expired November 13.

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VOTING COMPLEXITY STILL A CONCERN

CARACAS 00001582 002.2 OF 002


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6. (SBU) CNE rector Vicente Diaz, the sole independent
member among the CNE's five rectors, failed in his third
attempt to initiate administrative investigations against
Chavez for violating electoral regulations. The CNE ruled
November 6 that the President's use of mandatory broadcasts,
or cadenas, did not violate any policies pertaining to
campaign publicity and propaganda. While Chavez is exempt
from further scrutiny, according to pro-opposition daily El
Universal, the CNE will proceed with 47 investigations
against six high-profile opposition candidates and the Sucre
State government.


7. (SBU) The CNE began broadcasting on November 5 a series of
informational mini-cadenas to educate Venezuelans about the
voting process. The CNE has deployed voting machines in
public places and at military bases for potential voters to
demonstrate the voting process; many Venezuelans are
complaining that the process will take more than the
three-minute time limit. While campaigning in Yaracuy State
November 12, Chavez asked his followers to "practice one,
two, or three times." CNE President Tibisay Lucena hosted a
November 14 briefing for the diplomatic corps at the CNE
Caracas headquarters to underscore the "inclusiveness" of
Venezuela's electoral processes. She said the CNE is not
hosting any formal international electoral observation
missions this year, but intends to accredit some 130 foreign
visitors to observe the electoral process.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) The November 23 state and local elections are likely
to prove more a contest of which side has more success in
getting out the vote, rather than a competition between
pro-government and opposition candidates. The opposition's
ability to supply election observers to defend the vote and
prevent low-tech tampering could also prove crucial in close
races that Chavez is loathe to lose, including Miranda and
Merida States, and the Caracas and Sucre mayorships.
Moreover, the PSUV enjoys a significant (state) resource
advantage over the opposition in terms of potential voter
mobilization efforts. The PSUV, however, proved far less
effective an electoral machine in the December 2007
constitutional referendum than Chavez's previous party, the
Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) did in prior elections. In
addition, the electoral potential of pro-Chavez dissidents
and allies running against PSUV candidates will soon be
tested. End Comment.

CAULFIELD