STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS -- 10 DAYS AWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001582 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2028 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS -- 10 DAYS AWAY CARACAS 00001582 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, FOR REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: With just over a week until the November 23 state and local elections, President Chavez is vigorously supporting his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) candidates. He is simultaneously calling for arrests of opposition figures and pledging to make campaign stops in eleven states over the next week. Opposition insiders and pollsters believe the opposition could win six to eight of 22 gubernatorial races and double the number of mayoral seats that the opposition holds now. The election is likely to come down to which side is better able to mobilize its followers to the polls, an area in which the Government of Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) enjoys a decisive resource advantage over the opposition. End Summary. -------------- CHAVEZ, OPPOSITION FIGHTING ABSTENTIONISM -------------- ¶2. (C) Prominent pollster Alfredo Keller told Poloffs November 14 that he believed the November 23 state and local elections would be largely decided based on how successful the opposition and PSUV are at overcoming abstentionist sentiments among each side's supporters. Keller said opinion polls may prove inaccurate because some 90 percent of Venezuelans suggest that they intend to vote, but a much smaller and unpredictable percentage will actually do so. Keller said that in recent focus groups, Chavistas lack the energy and enthusiasm that they have displayed in previous elections. He also suggested that nonaligned ("ni-ni") and opposition-oriented voters may feel threatened by Chavez's fiery verbal attacks against key opposition figures and could be easily dissuaded from voting by long lines at the polls. ¶3. (C) Keller said there are few races in which an opposition contender has enough of a lead -- at least ten points -- to be considered a sure winner in advance. Keller also suggested that the Accion Democratica (AD) party would feature prominently in several gubernatorial races involving AD or ex-AD candidates (Sucre, Merida, Cojedes, Zulia, Nueva Esparta) and may emerge considerably strengthened after the upcoming state and local elections. He reiterated what other political observers have told us, that Chavez has managed to raise his popularity and that of his PSUV candidates by campaigning on their behalf and linking their political success to him personally. -------------- -------------- CHAVEZ'S CAMPAIGNING HARD/OPPOSITION DIVISIONS REMAIN -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Chavez continues to focus his campaigning in opposition-leaning and swing states. On November 10, at a meeting in the presidential palace with several dozen PSUV candidates, Chavez discussed strategic plans with the aspirants and designated Miraflores Palace the PSUV "command center," again blurring the line between state and party. The following day, Chavez announced that he planned upcoming campaign stops in Anzoategui, Merida, Miranda, Nueva Esparta, Tachira, and Yaracuy States. He also said he planned to do stump speeches on behalf of his PSUV candidates in Caracas, Cojedes, Aragua, Sucre, and Zulia States -- all during the final week before the November 21 cut-off for campaigning. The CNE forbids campaigning or alcohol sales 48 hours prior to the elections. ¶5. (C) The opposition continues to bicker among itself in many races and remains the target of fierce verbal attacks from Chavez. The Venezuelan president threatened November 8 to arrest Sucre State governor Ramon Martinez -- on vague allegations of an opposition secessionist plot -- and pledged to mobilize tanks to "defend the revolutionary government and country" if Carabobo State residents fail to elect PSUV gubernatorial candidate Mario Silva. Unable to decide on a consensus opposition candidate, three strong opposition candidates are running to replace Leopoldo Lopez as mayor of the Chacao borough of Caracas. The opposition also has two strong candidates competing in the gubernatorial races in Bolivar and Yaracuy, significantly diminishing its electoral prospects in those states. Candidates may still withdraw from the races, but the deadline to remove their names from the ballots expired November 13. -------------- VOTING COMPLEXITY STILL A CONCERN CARACAS 00001582 002.2 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (SBU) CNE rector Vicente Diaz, the sole independent member among the CNE's five rectors, failed in his third attempt to initiate administrative investigations against Chavez for violating electoral regulations. The CNE ruled November 6 that the President's use of mandatory broadcasts, or cadenas, did not violate any policies pertaining to campaign publicity and propaganda. While Chavez is exempt from further scrutiny, according to pro-opposition daily El Universal, the CNE will proceed with 47 investigations against six high-profile opposition candidates and the Sucre State government. ¶7. (SBU) The CNE began broadcasting on November 5 a series of informational mini-cadenas to educate Venezuelans about the voting process. The CNE has deployed voting machines in public places and at military bases for potential voters to demonstrate the voting process; many Venezuelans are complaining that the process will take more than the three-minute time limit. While campaigning in Yaracuy State November 12, Chavez asked his followers to "practice one, two, or three times." CNE President Tibisay Lucena hosted a November 14 briefing for the diplomatic corps at the CNE Caracas headquarters to underscore the "inclusiveness" of Venezuela's electoral processes. She said the CNE is not hosting any formal international electoral observation missions this year, but intends to accredit some 130 foreign visitors to observe the electoral process. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The November 23 state and local elections are likely to prove more a contest of which side has more success in getting out the vote, rather than a competition between pro-government and opposition candidates. The opposition's ability to supply election observers to defend the vote and prevent low-tech tampering could also prove crucial in close races that Chavez is loathe to lose, including Miranda and Merida States, and the Caracas and Sucre mayorships. Moreover, the PSUV enjoys a significant (state) resource advantage over the opposition in terms of potential voter mobilization efforts. The PSUV, however, proved far less effective an electoral machine in the December 2007 constitutional referendum than Chavez's previous party, the Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) did in prior elections. In addition, the electoral potential of pro-Chavez dissidents and allies running against PSUV candidates will soon be tested. End Comment. CAULFIELD