CHAVEZ THREATENS MILITARY ACTION AGAINST OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001568 C O R R E C T E D COPY (PARAGRAPH NUMBERS CHANGED) SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2028 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ THREATENS MILITARY ACTION AGAINST OPPOSITION CARACAS 00001568 001.4 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, FOR REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: President Chavez ratcheted up his threats against the opposition on November 8 and 9 while stumping for his candidates in Carabobo, Sucre, and Zulia States, states where opposition gubernatorial candidates are running strong. The Venezuelan president ordered a nearby garrison to take over an airport in Sucre State and pledged to take tanks out to the streets ("sacar los tanques") from Carabobo State to "defend the revolutionary government" if the opposition wins there. Chavez also stepped up his ongoing verbal attacks against Zulia governor and Maracaibo mayoral candidate Manuel Rosales, alleging an opposition plot to "cover up" a PSUV win in the state, and suggested he would take military action if Rosales does not recognize a win by PSUV gubernatorial contender Gian Carlo Di Martino. Chavez's apparent attempts to energize his base are becoming increasingly menacing and undemocratic. End Summary. -------------- CHAVEZ ON WARPATH IN CARABOBO, SUCRE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Chavez met November 8 with PSUV candidates in Carabobo State and exhorted the party's campaign "patrols" to go house to house in order to get out the vote on November 23. He told supporters that if the "oligarchy returns to the governorship (of Carabobo),perhaps I will end up withdrawing the tanks from the armored brigade to defend the revolutionary government and defend the people." Opposition activists interpret Chavez's threat to mean that Chavez intends to use military force against the civilian population if necessary to retain government control over key states. ¶3. (C) At a rally in Sucre State on November 9, Chavez ordered the local garrison to take over the Carupano airport. The Venezuelan president accused Ramon Martinez of impeding the installation of an operational base for the state oil company, Petroleum of Venezuela (PDVSA). He claimed that Minister of Energy and Petroleum Rafael Ramirez asked the governor's office for the installation, which refused to comply. Chavez called Martinez -- who is a member of formerly pro-Chavez Podemos party -- a "traitor" and announced, "if this is what it is, Vice Admiral Victor Bellera, take the airport. Prepare a plan and take that airport for me." (Note: The Carupano airport is a small installation of less than strategic significance. End Note). ¶4. (SBU) Chavez also contended in the Sucre rally that the opposition is trying to win strategic governorships and "declare themselves autonomous, like the Bolivian oligarchy did against Evo Morales." The President pointed to the opposition in Zulia State as being complicit in the plan to allegedly convert opposition-led states into "little republics." Calling for support for PSUV gubernatorial candidate for Sucre State Enrique Maestre, Chavez threatened that Martinez would "end up in jail." Later that evening, Sucre Director of Airports Guillermo Azuaje announced that permission for the installation had been granted to PDVSA "this same year." The next morning, on November 10, Martinez rejected Chavez's threats and told the press that "Chavez is constantly in Sucre...(because) his candidate is losing by more than 15 percent...now he is a magician and knows who will win. How does he do that?" -------------- MORE PRESSURE ON ZULIA OPPOSITION -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Chavez traveled to Zulia State to attend a November 9 evening rally in Ojeda City where he pledged to remove current governor and opposition mayoral candidate Manuel Rosales from power and to "pulverize" his protege and consensus opposition gubernatorial candidate Pablo Perez. The President told supporters that Rosales "is like a tumor in the body of Zulia State" and announced that the opposition had developed a plan to cover up PSUV wins in the state, to overthrow Chavez, and infiltrate Colombian paramilitary groups into Venezuela. Chavez warned that "if they try to take us down the path of violence, we will respond with all the force of the Bolivarian people" and ordered the military to keep its eye on Zulia, "because we cannot permit that they create a mess of the country." He added that Rosales would be arrested if he does not "hand the governorship to the CARACAS 00001568 002.4 OF 002 winner on November 23, who is called (PSUV gubernatorial candidate) Gian Carlo Di Martino." He suggested Rosales would face corruption charges after leaving office. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) President Chavez is well known for his rhetorical attacks on opponents, but he reached new depths in his latest stump speeches. Chavez is not only trying to frame the November 23 state and local elections as a referendum on his political future, but he is also suggesting without any evidence that opposition victories would be a threat to his personal safety and national security. While Chavez's statements are far more rhetorical than realistic given the low operational readiness of the Venezuelan military, they are an escalation. ¶7. (C) The Venezuelan president appears to be trying to energize his base to avoid the high rates of abstention that led to the defeat of his constitutional reform proposal in the December 2007 referendum. He also still appears determined to try to score victories in at least some opposition strongholds. The opposition, for its part, does not appear to be able to mobilize much resistance. A much-advertised November 8 concert to protest the Supreme Court's decision to make Eduardo Lapi ineligible to run for the Yaracuy State governorhsip, as well as to honor political prisoners, attracted only a small crowd. GENNATIEMPO