CHAVEZ THREATENS MILITARY ACTION AGAINST OPPOSITION

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SUBJECT: CHAVEZ THREATENS MILITARY ACTION AGAINST OPPOSITION

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
FOR REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: President Chavez ratcheted up his threats
against the opposition on November 8 and 9 while stumping for
his candidates in Carabobo, Sucre, and Zulia States, states
where opposition gubernatorial candidates are running strong.
The Venezuelan president ordered a nearby garrison to take
over an airport in Sucre State and pledged to take tanks out
to the streets ("sacar los tanques") from Carabobo State to
"defend the revolutionary government" if the opposition wins
there. Chavez also stepped up his ongoing verbal attacks
against Zulia governor and Maracaibo mayoral candidate Manuel
Rosales, alleging an opposition plot to "cover up" a PSUV win
in the state, and suggested he would take military action if
Rosales does not recognize a win by PSUV gubernatorial
contender Gian Carlo Di Martino. Chavez's apparent attempts
to energize his base are becoming increasingly menacing and
undemocratic. End Summary.

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CHAVEZ ON WARPATH IN CARABOBO, SUCRE
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2. (SBU) President Chavez met November 8 with PSUV
candidates in Carabobo State and exhorted the party's
campaign "patrols" to go house to house in order to get out
the vote on November 23. He told supporters that if the
"oligarchy returns to the governorship (of Carabobo),perhaps
I will end up withdrawing the tanks from the armored brigade
to defend the revolutionary government and defend the
people." Opposition activists interpret Chavez's threat to
mean that Chavez intends to use military force against the
civilian population if necessary to retain government control
over key states.


3. (C) At a rally in Sucre State on November 9, Chavez
ordered the local garrison to take over the Carupano airport.
The Venezuelan president accused Ramon Martinez of impeding
the installation of an operational base for the state oil
company, Petroleum of Venezuela (PDVSA). He claimed that
Minister of Energy and Petroleum Rafael Ramirez asked the
governor's office for the installation, which refused to
comply. Chavez called Martinez -- who is a member of
formerly pro-Chavez Podemos party -- a "traitor" and
announced, "if this is what it is, Vice Admiral Victor
Bellera, take the airport. Prepare a plan and take that
airport for me." (Note: The Carupano airport is a small
installation of less than strategic significance. End Note).



4. (SBU) Chavez also contended in the Sucre rally that the
opposition is trying to win strategic governorships and
"declare themselves autonomous, like the Bolivian oligarchy
did against Evo Morales." The President pointed to the
opposition in Zulia State as being complicit in the plan to
allegedly convert opposition-led states into "little
republics." Calling for support for PSUV gubernatorial
candidate for Sucre State Enrique Maestre, Chavez threatened
that Martinez would "end up in jail." Later that evening,
Sucre Director of Airports Guillermo Azuaje announced that
permission for the installation had been granted to PDVSA
"this same year." The next morning, on November 10, Martinez
rejected Chavez's threats and told the press that "Chavez is
constantly in Sucre...(because) his candidate is losing by
more than 15 percent...now he is a magician and knows who
will win. How does he do that?"

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MORE PRESSURE ON ZULIA OPPOSITION
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5. (SBU) Chavez traveled to Zulia State to attend a
November 9 evening rally in Ojeda City where he pledged to
remove current governor and opposition mayoral candidate
Manuel Rosales from power and to "pulverize" his protege and
consensus opposition gubernatorial candidate Pablo Perez.
The President told supporters that Rosales "is like a tumor
in the body of Zulia State" and announced that the opposition
had developed a plan to cover up PSUV wins in the state, to
overthrow Chavez, and infiltrate Colombian paramilitary
groups into Venezuela. Chavez warned that "if they try to
take us down the path of violence, we will respond with all
the force of the Bolivarian people" and ordered the military
to keep its eye on Zulia, "because we cannot permit that they
create a mess of the country." He added that Rosales would
be arrested if he does not "hand the governorship to the

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winner on November 23, who is called (PSUV gubernatorial
candidate) Gian Carlo Di Martino." He suggested Rosales
would face corruption charges after leaving office.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) President Chavez is well known for his rhetorical
attacks on opponents, but he reached new depths in his latest
stump speeches. Chavez is not only trying to frame the
November 23 state and local elections as a referendum on his
political future, but he is also suggesting without any
evidence that opposition victories would be a threat to his
personal safety and national security. While Chavez's
statements are far more rhetorical than realistic given the
low operational readiness of the Venezuelan military, they
are an escalation.


7. (C) The Venezuelan president appears to be trying to
energize his base to avoid the high rates of abstention that
led to the defeat of his constitutional reform proposal in
the December 2007 referendum. He also still appears
determined to try to score victories in at least some
opposition strongholds. The opposition, for its part, does
not appear to be able to mobilize much resistance. A
much-advertised November 8 concert to protest the Supreme
Court's decision to make Eduardo Lapi ineligible to run for
the Yaracuy State governorhsip, as well as to honor political
prisoners, attracted only a small crowd.
GENNATIEMPO