STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS -- THREE WEEKS AWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001518 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2018 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL VE SUBJECT: STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS -- THREE WEEKS AWAY CARACAS 00001518 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, FOR REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: With three weeks until state and local elections on November 23, President Chavez has focused his attention on attacking the opposition in Zulia State. Chavez may be preparing the ground to declare Zulia State Governor Manuel Rosales ineligible to run for the Maracaibo mayorship. National Electoral Council (CNE) rector Vicente Diaz has petitioned that the council open an administrative investigation into Chavez's violations of electoral regulations, but the CNE is highly unlikely to react. Pro-government and opposition campaigns do not yet appear to be generating much public interest, although POLITICAL tendencies appear to be hardening. We assess that the opposition could pick up six of 22 governorships in play and be competitive in four other gubernatorial races. End Summary. -------------- ELECTORAL CONDITIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) President Chavez has been using obligatory TV broadcasts, known as "cadenas," to stump for his PSUV candidates almost daily. From October 6 to October 21, Chavez used cadenas eight times for a total of approximately eight hours, inaugurating projects often with key PSUV candidates at his side. The CNE rector Vicente Diaz said on October 28 that he would ask the CNE to open an administrative investigation of Chavez for possible electoral violations. Diaz, the sole opposition-oriented member of the CNE board, told us on October 30 in a meeting at the Embassy that the move might have a POLITICAL cost for the President, but recognized that the pro-government majority of CNE rectors are unlikely to act against Chavez. ¶3. (C) Diaz's petition to investigate state-owned Venezuela TV for "disguising publicity as information" was approved on October 29 after five hours of deliberation. According to pro-opposition daily El Nacional, the CNE has received over 700 complaints to date regarding campaign publicity violations. Approximately 300 cases will undergo further investigation, including Chavez's complaint against Guarico gubernatorial candidate Lenny Manuitt of the pro-government Patria Para Todos party. The CNE is unlikely to issue timely sanctions in these cases, but may impose some token fines against some candidates. ¶4. (SBU) The CNE sponsored an election day simulation on October 26, during which participants took an average of 13 minutes to cast their ballots, far exceeding the three-minute time limit legally permitted. Voters who exceed the time limit will receive an additional three minutes, after which their vote is nullified. Diaz noted that given the long and confusing slate of candidates, voters will be able to cast their ballots within the timeframe, only if their decision-making is finalized before they enter the booth. CNE President Tibisay Lucena announced that voters will be allowed to carry into polling stations "cheat-sheets" provided by the POLITICAL parties showing them how to vote. Student activists announced October 28 their plan to safeguard the vote, dubbing the campaign "guardians of the vote." -------------- CHAVEZ FOCUSED ON DISABLING ZULIA OPPOSITION -------------- ¶5. (C) Chavez has gone on the offensive against current Zulia State governor and Maracaibo consensus opposition mayoral candidate Manuel Rosales, and may be preparing the ground to declare him ineligible to run at the eleventh hour. CNE Rector Diaz told us that he hopes Chavez is only "playing politics," but said he cannot be sure whether or not Chavez would engineer Rosales' disqualification. The Venezuelan president has repeatedly accused Rosales of corruption, on October 12 calling him a "vermin, bandit, and killer who has destroyed Zulia's social development." Two weeks later, Chavez threatened to have Rosales arrested for alleged involvement in a coup plot against the President and warned Zulia residents that RELATIONS with the state would be reexamined if PSUV gubernatorial candidate Giancarlo Di Martino did not win in November. ¶6. (SBU) On October 27, Rosales' Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) party announced their intention to take Chavez to court for CARACAS 00001518 002.2 OF 002 electoral infractions and false accusations that Rosales is involved in terrorism and narcotrafficking. Rosales admitted that the legal action would be a "salute to the flag" because of the lack of judicial and CNE independence, and called Chavez's attacks a "psychological war that uses media terrorism." According to pro-opposition daily El Universal, the GBRV has announced that it would prepare "military plans" in case Rosales wins. ¶7. (C) While campaigning for PSUV candidates in Bolivar State, Chavez announced on October 29 that "four years is what I have left," adding that he would discuss the issue of amending constitutional presidential term limits after November's elections. CNE rector Vicente Diaz told us on October 30, however, that Chavez will have to contend with ambitious Chavistas, including PSUV gubernatorial candidate for Lara state Henri Falcon and PSUV mayoral candidate for the Libertador Borough of Caracas Jorge Rodriguez, who he said had presidential aspirations of their own. Diaz also predicted that, if elected, a number of PSUV candidates would probably challenge Chavez's efforts to erode state and local power. -------------- OPPOSITION DISUNITY MAY ATOMIZE VOTE -------------- ¶8. (C) The opposition remains unable to find consensus in a number of races, which could atomize the electorate and inadvertently favor the PSUV candidates. In three of the five Caracas mayoral races, the opposition has failed to settle on a consensus candidate. In Bolivar State, Antonio Rojas Suarez and Andres Velasquez are likely to split the opposition vote. In Guarico State, the opposition unity candidate for the governorship is Reynaldo Armas, but PPT's Lenny Manuitt told the press October 29 that she has no plans to drop out of the gubernatorial race, which is likely to result in a three-way split which would facilitate a win for the PSUV's William Lara. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) As the clock winds down, pro-government or opposition tendencies seem to be solidifying. The possible atomization of the vote in opposition strongholds with no unity candidate could be the big story come November 23, especially if the PSUV continues to redouble its efforts to mobilize its base. The opposition still has a long way to go to field enough witnesses to protect the vote, especially in areas where the government could resort to stuffing ballot boxes in support of high profile PSUV candidates such as the Sucre and Libertador boroughs of Caracas and Miranda and Barinas states. In addition, PSUV dissidents and pro-Chavez allies from smaller parties do not appear to have much prospect of securing traditional opposition support in their races. Instead, they seem to be losing ground to the official PSUV candidates. CAULFIELD