CHAVEZ ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001506

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DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2028
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

CARACAS 00001506 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON
REASON 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary: In the run-up to the November 23 state and
local elections, Chavez has relied on his colloquial style
and infamously colorful language to attack both the
Venezuelan opposition and the United States. He has sought
to depict the traditional political opposition as foolish and
corrupt, while painting dissidents within his party and
political alliance as traitors. His blunt message is that
only his anointed PSUV candidates represent his Bolivarian
revolution and only they will receive the resources Chavez
controls. Chavez's aggressive and insulting rhetoric appears
to be more cathartic than strategic: it does not appear to be
helping his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV)
candidates in opposition strongholds. End Summary.

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INSULTING THE OPPOSITION
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2. (C) Chavez's criticisms of the opposition appear geared
toward painting them as corrupt, stupid, and out-of-touch --
tying them to the older, widely discredited opposition
parties. Chavez publicly claimed October 2 that Nueva
Esparta state, whose opposition governor Morel Rodriguez is
running for reelection, is being run by mafiosos and is
connected with narcotraffickers, crime, and ecological
destruction. He also emphasized Rodriguez's past ties with
Accion Democratica (AD). In September, he called PSUV
dissident Barinas gubernatorial candidate Julio Cesar Reyes a
"gangster." On October 18, he called for voters to make
"fried chicken" of Carabobo State gubernatorial candidate
Henrique Salas Feo on election day; Salas Feo's nickname is
"the chicken." A week later, he called Zulia opposition
candidate for governor Pablo Perez an "imbecile that doesn't
even know how to speak."


3. (C) Chavez has been particularly vicious in his attacks
against Zulia State governor and opposition Maracaibo mayoral
candidate Manuel Rosales, probably due in part to Rosales'
relatively high profile as an opposition leader and his
willingness to publicly fight back. On October 24, Chavez
called Rosales a "neofascist" and "imperialist token" and
pledged to "sweep up the entire state of Zulia with the great
red machinery." Two weeks earlier, Chavez accused Rosales of
being "coup leader number one," and claimed both he and Perez
were being supported by the United States and the "most
radical wing of the Pentagon." On October 26, Chavez
announced he would suspend his trip to El Salvador for the
Iberoamerican Summit because he feared for his safety,
announcing that "there are (Venezuelan) militants protected
by some Central American governments, by the CIA, and the
FBI" while asserting that Rosales was involved in a plot to
assassinate him.

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LAMBASTING DISSIDENTS
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4. (C) Chavez has been similarly critical against
dissidents both within Chavismo who have run without his
blessing or other parties allied with the PSUV who are
running third-party candidates. In his speech to kick off
the PSUV campaign on September 28, he warned supporters to
beware "complacency and betrayal." On October 11, on the
campaign trail in Trujillo state, Chavez threatened that he
would "erase" Patria Para Todos (PPT) and the Venezuelan
Communist Party "off the political map" for running
candidates against PSUV contenders in some states. Chavez
called PPT's candidate for the Portuguesa governorship, Bella
Petrizzo, and Carabobo State Governor and PSUV dissident Luis
Felipe Acosta Carlez "traitors" and "counterrevolutionaries"
for running against the PSUV candidates.

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OPPOSITION COMPLAINS
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5. (C) Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) Secretary General Gerardo
Blyde announced in an October 27 press conference that party
lawyers are gathering proof of Chavez's "electoral abuses" to
legally challenge him. Blyde requested that Chavez respect
UNT's candidates and noted that Chavez had been in Zulia
state "insulting" Manuel Rosales and Pablo Perez for two
days. He asked, "What's happening, President? What are you
afraid of?" He asked that the CNE act regarding Chavez's use

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of foul language and said that a party commission would visit
the CNE the following day to demand a respond regarding the
President's conduct. Given the CNE's very limited response
to repeated -- and legitimate -- accusations of misconduct
against pro-government media outlets, it is highly unlikely
it will take on Chavez personally.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Local pollsters note that Chavez alienates more
voters than he gains when he becomes aggressive and insulting
during public appearances. We see no indication that his
candidates are gaining ground in opposition strongholds after
Chavez has lambasted their high profile opponents. Moreover,
local polls indicate that most Venezuelans do not believe
Chavez's repeated claims that the United States and
opposition are conspiring to assassinate him.
CAULFIELD