CHAVEZ ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001506 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2028 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL CARACAS 00001506 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In the run-up to the November 23 state and local elections, Chavez has relied on his colloquial style and infamously colorful language to attack both the Venezuelan opposition and the United States. He has sought to depict the traditional political opposition as foolish and corrupt, while painting dissidents within his party and political alliance as traitors. His blunt message is that only his anointed PSUV candidates represent his Bolivarian revolution and only they will receive the resources Chavez controls. Chavez's aggressive and insulting rhetoric appears to be more cathartic than strategic: it does not appear to be helping his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) candidates in opposition strongholds. End Summary. -------------- INSULTING THE OPPOSITION -------------- ¶2. (C) Chavez's criticisms of the opposition appear geared toward painting them as corrupt, stupid, and out-of-touch -- tying them to the older, widely discredited opposition parties. Chavez publicly claimed October 2 that Nueva Esparta state, whose opposition governor Morel Rodriguez is running for reelection, is being run by mafiosos and is connected with narcotraffickers, crime, and ecological destruction. He also emphasized Rodriguez's past ties with Accion Democratica (AD). In September, he called PSUV dissident Barinas gubernatorial candidate Julio Cesar Reyes a "gangster." On October 18, he called for voters to make "fried chicken" of Carabobo State gubernatorial candidate Henrique Salas Feo on election day; Salas Feo's nickname is "the chicken." A week later, he called Zulia opposition candidate for governor Pablo Perez an "imbecile that doesn't even know how to speak." ¶3. (C) Chavez has been particularly vicious in his attacks against Zulia State governor and opposition Maracaibo mayoral candidate Manuel Rosales, probably due in part to Rosales' relatively high profile as an opposition leader and his willingness to publicly fight back. On October 24, Chavez called Rosales a "neofascist" and "imperialist token" and pledged to "sweep up the entire state of Zulia with the great red machinery." Two weeks earlier, Chavez accused Rosales of being "coup leader number one," and claimed both he and Perez were being supported by the United States and the "most radical wing of the Pentagon." On October 26, Chavez announced he would suspend his trip to El Salvador for the Iberoamerican Summit because he feared for his safety, announcing that "there are (Venezuelan) militants protected by some Central American governments, by the CIA, and the FBI" while asserting that Rosales was involved in a plot to assassinate him. -------------- LAMBASTING DISSIDENTS -------------- ¶4. (C) Chavez has been similarly critical against dissidents both within Chavismo who have run without his blessing or other parties allied with the PSUV who are running third-party candidates. In his speech to kick off the PSUV campaign on September 28, he warned supporters to beware "complacency and betrayal." On October 11, on the campaign trail in Trujillo state, Chavez threatened that he would "erase" Patria Para Todos (PPT) and the Venezuelan Communist Party "off the political map" for running candidates against PSUV contenders in some states. Chavez called PPT's candidate for the Portuguesa governorship, Bella Petrizzo, and Carabobo State Governor and PSUV dissident Luis Felipe Acosta Carlez "traitors" and "counterrevolutionaries" for running against the PSUV candidates. -------------- OPPOSITION COMPLAINS -------------- ¶5. (C) Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) Secretary General Gerardo Blyde announced in an October 27 press conference that party lawyers are gathering proof of Chavez's "electoral abuses" to legally challenge him. Blyde requested that Chavez respect UNT's candidates and noted that Chavez had been in Zulia state "insulting" Manuel Rosales and Pablo Perez for two days. He asked, "What's happening, President? What are you afraid of?" He asked that the CNE act regarding Chavez's use CARACAS 00001506 002.2 OF 002 of foul language and said that a party commission would visit the CNE the following day to demand a respond regarding the President's conduct. Given the CNE's very limited response to repeated -- and legitimate -- accusations of misconduct against pro-government media outlets, it is highly unlikely it will take on Chavez personally. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Local pollsters note that Chavez alienates more voters than he gains when he becomes aggressive and insulting during public appearances. We see no indication that his candidates are gaining ground in opposition strongholds after Chavez has lambasted their high profile opponents. Moreover, local polls indicate that most Venezuelans do not believe Chavez's repeated claims that the United States and opposition are conspiring to assassinate him. CAULFIELD