Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08CARACAS1476
2008-10-21 22:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
how-toVZCZCXRO0800 PP RUEHAG RUEHROV DE RUEHCV #1476 2952217 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 212217Z OCT 08 FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2014 INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001476
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT PASS TO USAID OTI/RPORTER
USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CONFIDENT IN ZULIA
Classified By: Francisco Fernandez, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.4(b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001476
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT PASS TO USAID OTI/RPORTER
USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CONFIDENT IN ZULIA
Classified By: Francisco Fernandez, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.4(b) and (d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: The four major opposition parties are
confident of maintaining control of the Zulia governorship,
regaining control of Maracaibo, Venezuela's second largest
city, as well as 17 of the 19 municipalities up for election.
Outgoing governor Manuel Rosales is widely believed to be
seeking the Maracaibo mayorship to boost the chances of his
hand-picked successor Pablo Perez becoming governor and to
use the mayor's office as a platform and piggy bank for a
presidential run in 2012. Coalition members all agree that
the unity strategy remains the only option for the
foreseeable future but find Rosales and his UNT party to be
heavy handed partners. End Summary.
2. (C) The western state of Zulia has long been considered a
bulwark of opposition politics and opposition parties. Un
Nuevo Tiempo (UNT),Accion Democratica (AD),Primera Justicia
(PJ) and COPEI are confident of their unity candidates
carrying 17 of 19 municipalities as well as the statehouse.
San Francisco city councilman of COPEI, Viapol Morales told
PolOff that according to the government's own IVAD surveys,
unity gubernatorial candidate Pablo Perez of the UNT party
held a 14 point lead over PSUV Gian Carlo DiMartino.
Although Morales' own bid for the mayorship failed to gain
traction, Angel Sanchez, a UNT confidant of Governor Rosales,
is 12 points ahead of PSUV Omar Prieto in the same survey.
According to Morales and COPEI Secretary General for Zulia
Nerio Romero, their party will carry Cabimas and Lagunillas,
the two races apportioned to them.
3. (C) Venezuela's oldest party AD was decimated following
the wrong-headed policy of abstention in the last
presidential and national assembly elections; nevertheless,
Secretary General Juan Carlos Velazco expects to win their
four municipal elections as well as a seat in the state
legislature. UNT enjoys a homefield advantage with party
founder Rosales finishing two successful terms as governor.
According to UNT Secretary General Gerardo Antunez, UNT
expects to take nine municipalities including Maracaibo and
San Francisco, Zulia's two largest population centers in
addition to three seats in the state legislature. When asked
why Rosales, having already been mayor of Maracaibo, would
return to the city after being state governor, Antunez
replied that it was to ensure the Zulia governorship stayed
in opposition hands.
4. (C) Rosales is a force in Zulia and representatives of the
coalition parties all winced when asked how it was working
with Rosales and the UNT. Juan Pablo Guanipa of PJ had the
sharpest criticism of Rosales (Note: Prior to Rosales
entering the race, Guanipa had been the leading opposition
candidate in Maracaibo and earned the grudging respect of
other parties when he withdrew to make way for Rosales. End
Note) He likened Rosales' populist style, including pork
barrel projects and cash give-aways to Chavez and pointed out
that Rosales concedes no operating space to other parties.
To illustrate the point, in the city of Machiques, Rosales'
party refused to yield to a PJ mayoral candidate. As a
result, PJ will have no mayors but UNT will have nine.
Guanipa also told POLOFF that Rosales ignored the offer of a
joint appearance to endorse Rosales' candidacy and blew off a
request to work on platform issues. Both AD and COPEI
assured POLOFF that since the 1999 constitution cut off
public funding to political parties, Rosales would use
Maracaibo and Zulia funds to make the UNT into a national
party and position himself for a second presidential bid in
2012.
5. (C) Comment: The opposition's coalition is holding firm
in Zulia, and members are willing to accept some of Rosales'
strong arm tactics in exchange for riding his coat tails to
victory. All party representatives agreed that if consensus
candidates were to win this election, it is likely the same
strategy would be used in the 2010 national assembly
election. If he wishes to enjoy broad support beyond 2010,
however, Rosales may need to be less dismissive of his
coalition partners. End Comment.
CAULFIELD
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT PASS TO USAID OTI/RPORTER
USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CONFIDENT IN ZULIA
Classified By: Francisco Fernandez, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.4(b) and (d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: The four major opposition parties are
confident of maintaining control of the Zulia governorship,
regaining control of Maracaibo, Venezuela's second largest
city, as well as 17 of the 19 municipalities up for election.
Outgoing governor Manuel Rosales is widely believed to be
seeking the Maracaibo mayorship to boost the chances of his
hand-picked successor Pablo Perez becoming governor and to
use the mayor's office as a platform and piggy bank for a
presidential run in 2012. Coalition members all agree that
the unity strategy remains the only option for the
foreseeable future but find Rosales and his UNT party to be
heavy handed partners. End Summary.
2. (C) The western state of Zulia has long been considered a
bulwark of opposition politics and opposition parties. Un
Nuevo Tiempo (UNT),Accion Democratica (AD),Primera Justicia
(PJ) and COPEI are confident of their unity candidates
carrying 17 of 19 municipalities as well as the statehouse.
San Francisco city councilman of COPEI, Viapol Morales told
PolOff that according to the government's own IVAD surveys,
unity gubernatorial candidate Pablo Perez of the UNT party
held a 14 point lead over PSUV Gian Carlo DiMartino.
Although Morales' own bid for the mayorship failed to gain
traction, Angel Sanchez, a UNT confidant of Governor Rosales,
is 12 points ahead of PSUV Omar Prieto in the same survey.
According to Morales and COPEI Secretary General for Zulia
Nerio Romero, their party will carry Cabimas and Lagunillas,
the two races apportioned to them.
3. (C) Venezuela's oldest party AD was decimated following
the wrong-headed policy of abstention in the last
presidential and national assembly elections; nevertheless,
Secretary General Juan Carlos Velazco expects to win their
four municipal elections as well as a seat in the state
legislature. UNT enjoys a homefield advantage with party
founder Rosales finishing two successful terms as governor.
According to UNT Secretary General Gerardo Antunez, UNT
expects to take nine municipalities including Maracaibo and
San Francisco, Zulia's two largest population centers in
addition to three seats in the state legislature. When asked
why Rosales, having already been mayor of Maracaibo, would
return to the city after being state governor, Antunez
replied that it was to ensure the Zulia governorship stayed
in opposition hands.
4. (C) Rosales is a force in Zulia and representatives of the
coalition parties all winced when asked how it was working
with Rosales and the UNT. Juan Pablo Guanipa of PJ had the
sharpest criticism of Rosales (Note: Prior to Rosales
entering the race, Guanipa had been the leading opposition
candidate in Maracaibo and earned the grudging respect of
other parties when he withdrew to make way for Rosales. End
Note) He likened Rosales' populist style, including pork
barrel projects and cash give-aways to Chavez and pointed out
that Rosales concedes no operating space to other parties.
To illustrate the point, in the city of Machiques, Rosales'
party refused to yield to a PJ mayoral candidate. As a
result, PJ will have no mayors but UNT will have nine.
Guanipa also told POLOFF that Rosales ignored the offer of a
joint appearance to endorse Rosales' candidacy and blew off a
request to work on platform issues. Both AD and COPEI
assured POLOFF that since the 1999 constitution cut off
public funding to political parties, Rosales would use
Maracaibo and Zulia funds to make the UNT into a national
party and position himself for a second presidential bid in
2012.
5. (C) Comment: The opposition's coalition is holding firm
in Zulia, and members are willing to accept some of Rosales'
strong arm tactics in exchange for riding his coat tails to
victory. All party representatives agreed that if consensus
candidates were to win this election, it is likely the same
strategy would be used in the 2010 national assembly
election. If he wishes to enjoy broad support beyond 2010,
however, Rosales may need to be less dismissive of his
coalition partners. End Comment.
CAULFIELD