GBRV SQUEEZING DEMOCRACY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001456

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: GBRV SQUEEZING DEMOCRACY

CARACAS 00001456 001.3 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. President Chavez and the Government of the
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) are stepping up
pressure on the opposition and civil society. Specifically,
the GBRV is harassing opponents and the independent media,
manufacturing coup plot agitprop, and disqualifying key
opposition politicians from running for office. Electoral
vulnerabilities in the November gubernatorial and mayoral
elections are likely to exacerbate these disturbing trends as
the GBRV endeavors to intimidate its democratic competition,
unite its fractured followers, and distract public attention
from its many failings. End Summary.

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Turning Up the Heat
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2. (C) President Chavez and the Government of the Bolivarian
Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) are turning up the heat on the
opposition and government critics in the run-up to the
November 23 gubernatorial and mayoral elections. Earlier
this year, the Comptroller's Office declared 272 current and
former public officials ineligible to run based on
administrative sanctions. The highly politicized Supreme
Court ruled August 5 to uphold the Comptroller's actions.
The measure disproportionately affected opposition
candidates, including disqualifying particularly strong
opposition candidates in the Caracas mayoral race and as many
as three gubernatorial races.


3. (C) Military Intelligence (DIM) officials temporarily
detained former Defense Minister General and GBRV critic Raul
Baduel on October 3. Baduel was charged with
misappropriation of funds and released with the prohibition
against leaving the country and speaking to the media and a
requirement to appear before a military court every 15 days.
Prior to that, DIM personnel and officials from the Military
Prosecutor's office searched Baduel's home on September 10
citing similar allegations. Unknown assailants fired
numerous shots at Baduel's car earlier this year as he was
driving with his son. He was unhurt. Baduel played an
active role in the defeat of Chavez's constitutional reform
package in the December 2007 referendum.


4. (C) Senior GBRV officials are leveling vague and
undocumented accusations that business groups, the 2-D
Movement, and military officials are engaged in a plot to
assassinate President Chavez. The BRV has arrested two
civilians, four retired military officers and one active duty
military officer in this alleged plot, but so far, has failed
to make public any meaningful evidence of wrongdoing.
Hard-line Chavistas are also accusing Alberto Federico
Ravell, the owner of the opposition-oriented Globovision
cable broadcaster, and Miguel Otero, owner of the independent
El Nacional newspaper, of being coup plotters.


5. (C) The BRV forcibly expelled the America's Director and
Deputy Director for Human Rights Watch September 18 following
the release of the NGO's annual report on Venezuela. In at
least seven instances since September, immigration and
special police intelligence (DISIP) officials have requested
that critics of the GBRV surrender their passports for
"secondary" review at the airport. Immigration authorities
at the Caracas airport canceled one passport, that of that of
Heinz Sonntag, a member of the 2-D civil society
pro-democracy movement. The GBRV has previously sought to
restrict the ability of political opponents to travel.
Critics of the government are reporting increasing
difficulties in renewing passports and national
identification documents.


6. (C) The BRV is also increasing pressure on independent
media. Government sympathizers fired tear gas canisters
September 23 at Globovision's headquarters in the early
morning hours. Shortly afterwards, radical Chavista Lina Ron
declared Ravel and Globo "military objectives of the
Venezuelan popular militias." They did the same outside the
headquarters of the opposition-oriented daily "El Nuevo Pais"
on October 14. In addition, government officials and
military police forcibly closed two radio stations in Guarico
State that did not support United Socialist Party of
Venezuela (PSUV) gubernatorial candidate William Lara. The
stations were indirectly linked to incumbent Guarico Governor
Eduardo Manuitt, whose daughter is also a gubernatorial
candidate.

CARACAS 00001456 002.3 OF 002



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Comment
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7. (C) Many local pundits note that President Chavez does not
pounce on you like a tiger, but slowly suffocates you like a
boa constrictor. Chavez has been very effective over the
last ten years in slowly eroding civil liberties, selectively
targeting outspoken opponents, and eliminating checks and
balances, while at the same time winning democratic
elections. However, after widely perceived as going "too
far," he suffered his first electoral defeat in the December
2007 constitutional referendum. He appears increasingly
erratic and aggressive in his efforts to avoid a second
consecutive defeat in the upcoming state and local elections.
Chavez's PSUV candidates are still likely to win a
significant majority of the gubernatorial and mayoral races,
but the opposition expects to make noteworthy gains from its
low-water mark in state and local elections in 2004. Such
opposition victories would complicate Chavez's efforts to
institute a one-party socialist revolution on Venezuela and
undermine his democratic legitimacy.

CAULFIELD