EARLY ELECTORAL POLLS: CHAVEZ STILL STRONG BUT NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001414

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HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: EARLY ELECTORAL POLLS: CHAVEZ STILL STRONG BUT NOT
INVINCIBLE

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: According to recent independent polls shared
with the Embassy, Venezuelans are chiefly concerned with the
rise in crime, and secondarily by inflation, unemployment,
and traffic. The scarcity of basic goods is much less of an
issue than it was in the run-up to the December 2007 failed
constitutional referendum. Although there does appear to be
growing criticism of the government among Chavistas, the
Venezuelan president remains far and away the most popular
politician in the country. Voters also perceive the
governent parties as more united than their opposition
counterparts, even though the opposition has more cnsensus
candidates. Chavez confidant Diosdado Cbello is reportedly
trailing in his bid to win r-election as governor of Miranda
State. Both the government and opposition are exaggerating
their electoral prospects and fanning unrealistic
expectations among their supporters. End Summary.


2. (C) Embassy contacts shared with us polls conducted
since late August by well-established professional firms.
Alfredo Keller and Associates and Consultores 21,
respectively conducted studies nationwide and of Miranda
state. Consultora LACSO did a USAID-funded focus group study
of D and E strata participants in five cities across the
country, and the Institute of Venezuelan Data Analysis (IVAD)
performed a nationwide survey.

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CRIME A PROBLEM, BUT NOT CHAVEZ
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3. (C) Insecurity is far and away the biggest concern for
Venezuelans. Some polling indicates that public concern has
grown over the past few months while other concerns--notably
scarcity--have been reduced. According to IVAD and
Consultores 21's findings, 77 and 67 percent respectively of
respondents listed insecurity as the principle problem
confronting the country or state, with other issues like
unemployment, inflation, and traffic far behind. Keller
found that crime has become a much bigger issue for
Venezuelans in the past few months, whereas in the same time
frame scarcity of goods has significantly declined as a
concern. In the same poll, about half of respondents or
their family members said they had been a victim of crime in
the past few months--the vast majority either robbery or
theft. Eighty-two percent of those polled believed that
there was "some" or "a lot" of probability that they or their
family would be robbed in the future. Even Chavistas in a
LACSO focus group commented on the rising crime rate, one
noting that "insecurity has escaped the hands of the
government."


4. (C) The LACSO findings assess that personal insecurity
has contributed in part to a slow growth of criticism within
Chavismo, leading to a division into hardline, unquestioning
Chavez supporters and those willing to criticize at least his
policies. The study's conclusion, however, is careful to
note their assessment that Chavistas as a whole do not see a
need for a "political change at the national level." In the
IVAD poll, 12% claimed that Chavez was responsible for the
problems, while 17% listed the state governor, suggesting
that participants look more to their state government to
alleviate problems than to Caracas.


5. (C) In its conclusion, LASCO suggested that the
opposition would be wise to propose "political change" at the
gubernatorial and mayoral level, without attacking President
Chavez himself. They could, in theory, attract voters who
benefit from Chavez's social programs but might be willing to
express their discontent by voting non-government candidates
into local or state office. Chavez's reelection remains a
sticking point -- 73% of those polled by Keller disagreed
with the idea of changing the constitution to allow
reelection.

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PERCEPTIONS OF VICTORY?
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6. (C) Two of the polls indicate a widely-held perception
that there are divisions within the opposition, and to a
lesser extent, the PSUV as well. According to IVAD, 58% of
those polled say that the government has achieved the most
unity, 19% say the opposition, and 25% say neither of the

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two. LACSO concluded that its participants perceived the
government to be more united and cohesive than the
opposition. Even the self-identified opposition participants
in the LASCO study did not have a particularly positive view
of their parties. According to the Keller findings, the
number of respondents who claimed they would vote for the
opposition in November rose in the second trimester of 2008
as likely PSUV voters fell, but the respective numbers have
returned to approximately the same levels as they were at the
beginning of 2008.


7. (C) In the swing state of Miranda, Consultores 21
asserts that PSUV Governor Diosdado Cabello, a close
confidant of Chavez, is currently trailing opposition
candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski in his bid for
reelection. According to the poll conducted in early
September, participants are split regarding Cabello's
performance as governor, 44% say he has done a good job while
52% say he has not, and the findings indicate he would lose
35% to 44% to Capriles Radonski if elections were today.
Although Cabello has Chavez's backing and resources to count
on, he has high unfavorability ratings. Forty-six percent of
those polled said they would not vote for Cabello, whereas
just 20% claimed the same for Capriles Radonski. Cabello's
poor polling numbers may reflect a widespread perception that
he has used public office for self-enrichment. The same poll
gives an early lead to the opposition's Antonio Ledezma in
the Caracas mayoral race, who currently holds 39% of the vote
over 26% for the PSUV's Aristobulo Izturiz.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) Both the government and opposition are indulging in
bravado rather than managing voter expectations. In his
stump speeches, Chavez is boasting that his PSUV party can
sweep the table, and only grudgingly concedes the opposition
may win some races. Chavez's candidates are likely to win a
solid majority of both gubernatorial and mayoral races, and
the Venezuelan president appears to be preparing government
mechanisms to circumvent newly-elected opposition officials.
Opposition leaders are also publicly exaggerating their
electoral prospects. LACSO and other pollsters tell us that
respondents generally expect the opposition to win as many as
twelve gubernatorial seats, whereas most local pundits have
tell us they anticipate the opposition will win only five or
six governorships -- albeit in key, densely-populated states.
Although winning five or six key state races would be a
significant advance for the opposition, many
opposition-oriented followers could be disappointed and
disillusioned by such an outcome.

CAULFIELD