FEW NEW FACES AMONG OPPOSITION CANDIDATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001334 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC VE SUBJECT: FEW NEW FACES AMONG OPPOSITION CANDIDATES CARACAS 00001334 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ FOR REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The opposition, beset by parochial interests, appears to be relying on well-established politicians in November's gubernatorial and mayoral elections rather than cultivating "new faces" with broad public appeal. Moreover, the older and previously discredited parties, Copei and Democratic Action (AD),have a disproportionate share of consensus candidates for the November 23 municipal and gubernatorial elections as a result of the greater name recognition of their candidates. Over half of the opposition's contenders for governors have served previously in the position or in the National Assembly. The few "new" faces--such as singer/songwriter Reinaldo Armas in Guarico state--are likely to lose badly, according to local pundits. Opposition contacts tell us they hope to win five or six governorships, down from the eight to ten they had hoped for earlier this year. End Summary. -------------- MORE OF THE SAME -------------- ¶2. (C) The opposition has relied almost exclusively on polling to nominate candidates. This methodology has favored old faces with broad name recognition rather than emerging leaders with real potential to win votes across party lines. Many of these well-known opposition figures have levels of public rejection that rival their levels of public support. Moreover, opposition activists concede that polling does not generate the same level of democratic legitimacy as primaries. They note that Chavez's United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) used a highly controlled primary process, but the fact a primary was used at all provides some added legitimacy to their candidates. The two opposition exceptions are Aragua State gubernatorial candidate Henry Rosales who won 81.4 percent of the vote in a primary held on July 27, and Tachira State, which will hold its primary on September 28. ¶4. (C) Copei Secretary General Alejandro Vivas told Poloffs September 18 that the opposition is still having difficulty finding consensus on common candidates. He noted that there is very little agreement on contenders for the state legislatures and just 220 of the 328 mayorships have been decided. He admitted that the newer and less-established parties, including Primero Justicia and Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT),are underrepresented among the list of consensus candidates--despite having a broader base of popular support than Copei and AD. The latter two parties, however, retain party structures nation-wide giving them an advantage outside of Caracas. Moreover, the parties are reluctant to share information with each other, including among poll watchers, which will likely result in a widespread duplication of effort as each party tries to supply representatives to the thousands of polling centers in November. ¶5. (C) Of the 22 gubernatorial races, six of the consensus opposition candidates are either former or current governors. A seventh, Miriam de Montilla from Apure state, is the wife of three-time former governor Gregorio Montilla. Five other opposition picks have held mayoral seats, are former representatives to the National Assembly, or both, as in the case of Miranda gubernatorial candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski. Roberto Smith Perera, running for Vargas state, served as Minister of Transportation and Communication (1990-92) in former President Carlos Andres Perez's Cabinet and was an opposition pre-candidate in the 2006 presidential race who generated little public support. ¶6. (C) The opposition has yet to settle on a single candidate for governor in three states. The two contenders for Bolivar state, Andres Velasquez and Antonio Rojas Suarez, are both former governors. Opposition contacts tell us that they doubt either will withdraw from the gubernatorial race, essentially handing a "swing" state to the sitting PSUV governor. Similarly, there are two opposition candidates competing in Yaracuy, Edward Capdeville and Eduardo Lappi. The latter is a former governor and is currently in exile in Peru awaiting judgment from the National Electoral Council on his eligibility to run. He was jailed in 2006 on politically-motivated charges of official corruption and escaped nine months later and fled the country. In Tachira state, journalist Gustavo Azocar of UNT and Cesar Perez Vivas of Copei are still slinging mud at each other. They agreed to compete in a primary on September 28 to determine the CARACAS 00001334 002.2 OF 002 consensus opposition candidate, but are arguing over who should be eligible to vote in the primary. ¶7. (C) The opposition desperately wants -- and needs -- to retain control of oil-rich Zulia State, Venezuela's most populous state with 14 percent of the overall population. Current Zulia governor and former Presidential contender Manuel Rosales and his UNT party, which has benefited from his time as governor, are hoping that the state's 39-year-old State Secretary General, Pablo Perez, will continue the UNT's time in power. According to opposition party pundits, Perez suffers from the widely-held view that he is merely a loyal protQgQ of Rosales, who is ineligible for re-election. Saadi Bijani, the opposition mayor of the large San Francisco municipality, reportedly intends to stay in the race and could play the "spoiler." Current Maracaibo Mayor Giancarlo Di Martino is the PSUV's well-funded and competitive candidate. In order to ensure his party's operations and his own continue presence in politics, Governor Rosales is running for Maracaibo mayor, which he is expected to win handily (Note: Under Venezuela's arcane campaign finance laws, parties often use government resources and staff for party business as neither private nor public campaign contributions are allowed. End Note). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Opposition leaders argue that they have demonstrated far more unity for November's state and local elections than they did five years ago. They also note that in tough electoral contests they needed to support traditional local leaders with sufficient following and resources to be serious candidates. This has given the older, discredited parties, COPEI and Accion Democratica, a higher percentage of unity candidates than would be expected given national polling results. Moreover, the BRV declared a number of the opposition's best non-traditional candidates in three gubernatorial races and in the Caracas mayorship races ineligible based on flimsy administrative sanctions. Nevertheless, the opposition's short-term strategy may be seen in the future as a missed opportunity to cultivate new candidates with broader public appeal. Moreover, continued disunity in opposition strongholds is undermining the opposition's overall public appeal and support. Optimistic opposition leaders who told us earlier this year that they expected to win eight to ten gubernatorial races are now talking about winning five or six. End Comment. CAULFIELD