VENEZUELAN ASSOCIATION BELIEVES GOVERNMENT WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001320 SIPDIS HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD TREASURY FOR MMALLOY COMMERCE FOR 4431/MAC/WH/MCAMERON CA FOR CA/OCS/ACS FOR WILLIAM HURST E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2018 TAGS: VE CASC ASEC MARR PGOV ECON EAIR SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN ASSOCIATION BELIEVES GOVERNMENT WILL NOT CUT U.S. CARRIER FLIGHTS REF: CARACAS 1266 Classified By: Economic Counselor Darnall Steuart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 18, the Executive Director of the Venezuelan Air Transport Chamber (Ceveta) William Bracho told Econoffs he does not believe the Venezuelan Civil Aviation Authority (INAC) will follow through on its threat to cut U.S. carrier flights as market demand is extremely high and any frequency reduction would create a public outcry. Bracho said the airlines' strategy is to allow INAC to gracefully back down from its September 28 flight reduction threat by publicly demonstrating that U.S. carriers are now actively exploring cooperation with Venezuelan airlines so there will be no need for INAC to reduce their share of the Venezuelan market. Bracho reiterated previous reports that the Venezuelan Vice President is in control of the aviation sector, not INAC. Bracho believes the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV) will respond to the September 16 diplomatic note requesting bilateral aviation consultations probably with an offer to meet in January 2009. In a September 19 meeting with the Charge, former Chief of Staff to VP Rangel also said the airline situation would be resolved. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On September 18, Econoffs met with Ceveta Executive Director William Bracho. Bracho has frequently been cited in the media as supporting more flights for Venezuelan carriers while at the same time, strongly opposing INAC's threat to cut U.S. carrier flights. Bracho recently met with INAC President Martinez who told him INAC's recent actions (i.e. the September 10 letter to U.S. carriers threatening flight reductions as of September 28) were due to direct orders from a higher level in the government. Bracho echoed comments Econoffs have heard from multiple sources that Martinez is not in charge of Venezuelan civil aviation and must clear any important correspondence or action through Venezuelan Vice President Carrizalez (reftel). According to Bracho, many in the industry hope that in the next few weeks Martinez will drop at least one of his three rolls. In addition to serving as the President of INAC, Martinez is also the head of Venezuelan-owned airline Conviasa, which recently had a plane crash in Ecuador, as well as the National Executive's Autonomous Air Transport Service (SATA),the government agency that manages President Chavez' flights. ¶3. (C) Bracho noted that Air Services Director and INAC second in command Carmen Lanza told him she knew of the Embassy's September 16 diplomatic note requesting consultations, but added that INAC probably would not be ready to consult with the U.S. until January 2009, citing at least three rounds of talks in November, the December holidays, etc. (NOTE: Econoff has requested a response from INAC every day since September 16 on the diplomatic note requesting consultations. Each day INAC reports they have no response as of yet. On September 17 INAC even added that President Martinez had not had time to review the diplomatic note due to his bilateral talks with the Russians. END NOTE.) ¶4. (C) Bracho underlined that the airlines are hard at work preparing a dignified way for the government to back down on its flight reduction threat. The Chamber is working with the airlines to demonstrate to INAC that U.S. and Venezuelan carriers are in the process of creating alliances. American Airlines, for example, is currently exploring ways it can cooperate with Venezuelan carrier Santa Barbara, while Bracho believes that Venezolana Airlines (a small Maracaibo-based carrier) may have approached Delta and Avior Airlines may also be looking to increase cooperation with a U.S. airline. Bracho believes this strategy may allow INAC to gracefully back away from its September 28 deadline citing greater cooperation between the airlines and more benefits for Venezuelan carriers. For his part, Bracho is aware that any code share agreement would be months, if not years in the making and would require USG approval. He argued that finalizing a hypothetical code share agreement is not important in the current environment while showing a willingness to work with Venezuelan carriers is. Bracho added that he does not believe the government wants to face the public outcry over INAC's reductions before the November elections. Nevertheless, he noted his fear that, in the event INAC does carry through on its threat, the U.S. would CARACAS 00001320 002 OF 002 retaliate by cutting Venezuelan flights. --- TSA --- ¶5. (C) Turning to the issue of TSA, Bracho suggested that it might be possible for TSA to visit Venezuela to conduct security inspections of U.S. carrier operations. Bracho did not believe that INAC would agree to a TSA review of overall airport security. He added that he believed that American Airlines had proposed to INAC President Martinez that he visit the airport in Miami so that he could better appreciate the role that TSA plays in overseeing airport security. In this context, Bracho raised concerns that the Embassy has denied visas for INAC personnel, including Martinez, in the past. EconCouns informed him this would be a decision for the Embassy's Consular Section but that the Embassy would review their applications carefully if they applied. Finally, Bracho raised a concern about possible harassment of Venezuelan carriers in the U.S. due to current strains in the bilateral relationship. Econoffs asked Bracho to contact the Embassy if he received any such reports from Venezuelan carriers. ¶6. (C) In a September 19 meeting with the Charge, Rene Arreaza, formerly Chief of Staff to VP Rangel, said that he too did not believe the BRV would act on its threat to cut U.S. carrier frequencies. Arreaza said that a solution to the TSA inspection issue would be for TSA to accompany the ICAO team slated to visit Venezuela in January 2009. The Charge did not encourage such thinking and questioned whether ICAO would even agree to the participation of TSA. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) It is clear that Bracho is hopeful that a way can be found around the airport inspection issue by advocating for TSA inspections of U.S. carrier operations at Venezuelan airports. Bracho also welcomed the possibility of bilateral aviation consultations, saying the 1953 agreement is outdated. However, Carmen Lanza reportedly stated to a DOT official several months ago that it would not be in the U.S. interest to re-open the treaty at this point. We will soon find out whether or not Bracho's opinion that INAC will back down on its threat to reduce flights has merit or not. The BRV seems to have realized that its belligerent response to TSA's notification has backfired and may be searching for a face saving way to maintain the status quo. CAULFIELD