CHAVEZ RATCHETS BACK ATTACKS ON USG; CONTINUES TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001283 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2028 TAGS: PREL PGOV VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ RATCHETS BACK ATTACKS ON USG; CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON BOLIVIA CARACAS 00001283 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. After reaching a fever pitch when he expelled Ambassador Duddy, President Chavez has toned down his anti-U.S. rhetoric over the past 72 hours. Chavez and his followers have said that RELATIONS with the United States would not be broken, although POLITICAL RELATIONS were at a low point. While many publicly believe that the actions taken were driven by a desire to distract local attention from domestic problems and the Miami-based "maleta-gate" trial, it appears that Chavez's public assertions that the actions were being taken in support of Bolivia are truer to the mark. Having gotten everyone's attention, Chavez now seems to be trying to play the statesman and cobble together a South American solution for Bolivia. Should these efforts fail, however, last week,s rhetorical frenzy could return. End Summary. -------------- -- No Further Deterioration of RELATIONS - For Now -------------- -- ¶2. (SBU) President Chavez phoned a government talk show hosted by PSUV Steering Committee member Vanessa Davies the night of September 12 and clarified his position on bilateral ties in the wake of his September 11 order to expel Ambassador Duddy. Speaking calmly and deliberately, Chavez said he did not intend to damage RELATIONS with the USG further, including energy and commercial relations, unless the USG does something to undermine relations. Chavez did not specify what else could trigger any further BRV actions against the USG. ¶3. (SBU) Foreign Minister Maduro and Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Maximiliano Arvelaiz greeted PNG'ed Venezuelan Ambassador Bernardo Alvarez on live state TV later the same night as he disembarked a private jet at Maiquetia Airport. Alvarez told the media that the BRV "is not responsible" for damaging RELATIONS and blamed the USG. Asked how the BRV would continue to protect Venezuelans' interests in the United States, Alvarez said the Charge, the rest of the Embassy staff, and the BRV's eight consulates will continue to function. Asked whether he believed Ambassador Duddy had been involved in any plots against the BRV, Alvarez said he was not in a position to answer. Maduro hailed Alvarez for his six years of service in Washington and asserted that the USG engaged in "campaigns and plots of all types" against the BRV during that time. President Chavez then called Alvarez and hailed the returning BRV Ambassador and promised that he would soon have a "high position" in the Foreign Ministry. In a September 15 interview, Alvarez echoed Chavez's earlier comments that Venezuela did not seek to break RELATIONS with the United States. ¶4. (SBU) President Chavez was on the air for over eight hours during Saturday at three separate events, the signing of cooperative agreements with Portugal, the ceremony creating five new regional military commands (septel) and the Socialist Party's Youth Congress. While the speeches contained specific allegations that the US was behind events in Bolivia, they level of aggression was markedly reduced. Chavez also used the speeches to downplay the September 12 OFAC designations, but in muted terms. The international message in the speeches focused on the need for the Presidents of South America to come together and find a solution for Bolivia at a summit of the Venezuelan-sponsored Union of South American Presidents (UNASUR) called by the Chilean president for September 15. ¶5. (C) Chavez also used the speeches and TV appearances since September 12 to refute the September 12 OFAC designations of his intelligence chiefs and former interior Minister. While he defended the officials and claimed that there were purely political motives behind the designations, his defense was neither lengthy nor energetic. The designations were picked up by non-state media, but mostly portrayed as retaliation for the expulsion of Amb. Duddy. The stories did cover, however, the fact that the designations were due to the activities and material support of the FARC by the designees. Non-state media also focused on the fact that the President's actions, from fabricating a coup attempt to throwing out the US Ambassador, were an attempt to draw attention away from domestic issues and the damaging revelations coming from the "maleta-gate" trail in Miami. CARACAS 00001283 002.3 OF 002 -------------- Bolivia the Key -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) Sensitive reporting indicates that President Chavez's actions over the past few days, including the expulsion of Amb. Duddy, were driven by concerns regarding Bolivia. Chavez seems to believe that it is absolutely necessary to keep Morales in power and believes that this will be impossible without active intervention by UNASUR members. During Sunday's "Alo, Presidente" program, Chavez stated he was prepared to die for Bolivia after saying a few days earlier that Venezuelan troops stood ready to defend President Morales. Following the September 12 rebuff by Bolivian Commander in Chief General Luis Trigo, who said the Bolivian armed forces "would not allow any military or foreign force to set foot in Bolivia," Chavez accused the Bolivian troops of "some kind of strike with their arms at their sides." Chavez also declared that the "Yanquis were striking at the heart of South America" and if Evo Morales were to be overthrown or assassinated he "would not sit idle with his arms crossed." ¶7. (C) Comment. The situation in Bolivia appears to have President Chavez very concerned. Having raised regional concerns enough to have President Bachelet call a meeting, Chavez is now trotting out his statesman's garb and demeanor. It is not clear, however, that the other leaders, including President Morales, welcome such an activist and interventionist role in Bolivia. Should his plans to rally regional support for Morales fail, it is possible that Chavez could again embark on virulent anti-US attacks. For the time being, however, his attention seems focused elsewhere. End Comment. CAULFIELD