OPPOSITION UNITES BEHIND CARACAS MAYORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001272

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION UNITES BEHIND CARACAS MAYORAL
CANDIDATE; STILL DIVIDED IN MANY RACES

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. Opposition parties named Alianza Bravo
Pueblo (ABP) leader Antonio Ledezma September 9 their
consensus candidate for the Caracas mayorship. Ledezma also
picked up the personal endorsement of Chacao Mayor Leopoldo
Lopez, who had led early polls in the same race, but whom the
Comptroller declared ineligible to run for office. The
opposition still remains divided in many other races,
including the mayoral contests for three of Caracas' five
boroughs and in three gubernatorial races. At the same time,
in many races in which the opposition has united behind
consensus candidates, independent candidates threaten to
siphon off would-be opposition votes and play the role of
spoilers. Chavez's United Socialist Party of Venezuela
(PSUV) and other pro-government parties are also still
divided on state and local candidacies, but the PSUV, thanks
in large part to its access to government coffers, is in a
better position than opposition parties to win. End Summary.


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Opposition Unites Behind Ledezma for Caracas Mayor
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2. (SBU) At a poorly organized September 9 press conference,
opposition parties announced their consensus support for
Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP) leader Antonio Ledezma in the
Caracas mayoral race. Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) mayoral
candidate William Ojeda formally announced that he was
withdrawing from the race just prior to Ledezma's remarks,
and Chacao Mayor and former mayoral candidate Leopoldo Lopez
endorsed Ledezma immediately following Ledezma's remarks.
Lopez led all contenders in public opinion polls, but the
Comptroller included him on a list of 272 current and former
public officials declared ineligible to run for office based
on administrative sanctions.


3. (C) Ledezma is a vocal critic of President Chavez, but in
his remarks, he focused on Caracas' many municipal problems,
including crime, poor trash collection, and traffic. Ledezma
was the appointed governor of Caracas when the Venezuelan
capital was a federal district under the previous
Constitution. He is running against former Education
Minister and former Libertador Borough Mayor Aristobulo
Isturiz, one of the most prominent United Socialist Party of
Venezuela (PSUV) leaders. While opposition leaders insist
Ledezma can win the Caracas mayorship, some opposition
parties delayed supporting his candidacy because they did not
believe he could defeat Isturiz.

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Opposition Still Divided in Many Places
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4. (C) The opposition is still divided in three of Caracas'
five borough races. In Chacao, Mayor Lopez's protQgQ
Councilman Emilio Grateron continues to square off against
the candidate of his own UNT party, Liliana Hernandez. In El
Hatillo, the UNT and AD continue to field competing
candidates. UNT National Political Director Luis Emilio
Rondon told PolCouns September 10 that the opposition can win
both Chacao and El Hatillo with multiple candidates, and he
does not expect consensus candidates in those districts. UNT
leaders concede that residual infighting presents a negative
image of the opposition as a whole, but stress that it is not
always possible to forge compromises. In addition, the
opposition has not yet agreed on a consensus candidate in the
Libertador Borough of Caracas, a pro-Chavez stronghold.


5. (C) While opposition parties have announced consensus
candidates in 19 of 22 gubernatorial races so far, not all
opposition politicians are honoring those agreements and may
prove to be spoilers. For example, in Miranda State, the
Comptroller declared former governor and leading candidate
Enrique Mendoza ineligible to run based on administrative
sanctions. Mendoza has so far refrained from endorsing
Baruta Mayor Henrique Capriles Radonski, the opposition's
next-best candidate, and appears to be tacitly supporting the
independent candidacy of another former governor. San
Francisco Mayor Saadi Bijani continues to run an independent
gubernatorial campaign in Zulia against consensus opposition
candidate Pablo Perez.


6. (C) Parties may reach consensus on candidates up until

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September 15, although individual candidates may still
withdraw their candidacies just days before the elections
(although in the latter case their names would still appear
on the ballot). The opposition plans to hold a primary at
the end of September to decide on a consensus candidate for
the Tachira gubernatorial race, a state the opposition could
win if it is united. In Bolivar state, another state the
opposition hopes to win, two former governors continue to run
as competing opposition candidates. In Yaracuy State, the
opposition remains divided between two candidates, including
an ex-governor who is living in exile in Peru who is likely
to be declared ineligible to run.


6. (C) Opposition leaders claim that they have now forged
consensus candidacies in some 280 of 328 mayoral races and
say they expect to win over 150 mayorships, including most of
the state capitals and many of the largest cities. Local
leaders, however, tell us that the opposition is still having
difficulties reaching consensus candidates at the municipal
level and coalition slates for legislative assembly
elections. A Primero Justicia (PJ) leader from Monagas told
Poloff that AD currently has four of the state's 11
mayorships, with only one AD mayor eligible and running for
re-election. He said that because AD has so far spurned
compromises with other parties, the opposition is likely to
retain only one, if any, of the four mayorships it controls
now.

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Comment
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7. (C) President Chavez's PSUV party is also confronting
internal divisions and dissident candidacies, but the PSUV
enjoys much more significant political and economic support
than any of the opposition parties. Opposition leaders are
accentuating the positive impact of the consensus candidacies
that they have achieved, but they can ill afford continued
divisions and the corresponding negative public image. The
opposition is more organized than ever before, but
unfortunately, all too many opposition politicians, despite
their conviction that President Chavez is an autocrat,
continue to put their egos and personal ambitions ahead of
their stated objective of expanding democratic space in
Venezuela. End Comment.

CAULFIELD