PPT AND CHAVEZ: A TENUOUS ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001206

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV VE
SUBJECT: PPT AND CHAVEZ: A TENUOUS ALLIANCE

CARACAS 00001206 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. National Assembly Second Vice President and
Patria Para Todos Secretary General Jose Albornoz told
PolCouns August 19 that he expects President Chavez to
initiate "an opening" with the USG after the U.S.
presidential election and Venezuela's November state and
local elections. Albornoz confirmed that his small
pro-Chavez party continues to have serious differences with
Chavez and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and
plans to back its own candidates against PSUV candidates in
many races. The PPT may even be considering breaking with
Chavez entirely. The PPT Secretary General said the PSUV is
fractured and faring poorly in polls; he predicted Chavez
would postpone the November elections if that trend
continues. Albornoz nevertheless faulted the opposition for
failing to build political momentum after defeating Chavez's
constitutional reform package in the December 2007
referendum. End Summary.

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Bilateral Relations
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2. (C) National Assembly Second Vice President and Patria
Para Todos (PPT) Secretary General Jose Albornoz told
PolCouns August 19 that given the importance of the
U.S.-Venezuelan economic relationship, he believes pressure
is growing within the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (BRV)
to have "some kind of opening" with the USG. Albornoz
predicted that President Chavez would personally launch any
new approach to the USG, but at the same time would wait
until after both the U.S. presidential election and
Venezuela's November state and local elections before doing
so. In the meantime, Albornoz said he did not expect any BRV
movement toward the United States.


3. (C) Noting that the BRV discourages him from meeting USG
officials, Albornoz said he nevertheless insists upon his
"autonomy." He noted that he took the precaution of sending
his special police (DISIP) bodyguards away before his August
19 meeting with Poloffs at the PPT party headquarters.
Albornoz also said PPT differs with the BRV on a number of
foreign policy issues, particularly the BRV's position with
respect to "some groups in Colombia." He reiterated his
interest in maintaining a discreet dialogue with the U.S.
Embassy.

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Differences With the PSUV
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4. (C) Albornoz bemoaned ongoing differences within the
Patriotic Alliance, the electoral alliance between Chavez's
United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and several
smaller pro-government parties like his PPT. He noted that
his small, but noteworthy party, remains very interested in
winning state and local races in the several states where the
party is strongest. He regretted Chavez's attacks on his
party for supporting Lenny Manuitt, daughter of Guarico State
Governor Eduardo Manuitt, instead of the PSUV candidate,
former Information Minister William Lara, in the
gubernatorial race there. (Note: A large Lenny Manuitt
campaign banner hangs in front of PPT headquarters. End
Note).


5. (C) Albornoz noted that so far the PSUV is only supporting
PPT candidates on combined pro-government slates for
legislative assemblies in six states. He noted that the PPT
and the Communist Party (PCV) have therefore combined forces
in several states, albeit undermining pro-government unity.
Albornoz confirmed that PSUV Vice President Muller's hard
negotiating style has made matters worse for the PSUV within
the Patriotic Alliance. Albornoz foreshadowed a potential
PPT break with the government. He said he was contemplating
resigning from the Vice Presidency of the National Assembly
to be able to devote more time to his party's campaign. He
also said his daughter resigned her position as a diplomat in
the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington at his request.

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Electoral Analysis
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6. (C) Albornoz said the PSUV lacks the electoral machinery
that Chavez's former party, the Fifth Republic Movement

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(MVR),had. He also said the PSUV is so badly fractured that
Chavez may try to form another new party after the November
elections. The government's internal polls show the PSUV in
trouble in many states, including some traditional
pro-government strongholds. If that trend continues,
Albornoz believes the BRV will postpone November's
gubernatorial and mayoral elections.


7. (C) The PPT Secretary General also criticized the
opposition for failing "to cash the blank check" of its
defeat of Chavez's constitutional reform package in December

2007. He said continuing divisions within the opposition
seriously jeopardize opposition parties' chances of victory
in state and cities they should otherwise win. Albornoz
suggested that his small pro-Chavez party is a greater threat
to the PSUV because it offers a fully articulated progressive
alternative to Chavismo.

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Comment
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8. (C) Given that his party is still cooperating with the
Chavez government, Albornoz has considerable insight into
Chavez's relative electoral strengths and weaknesses. Late
last year, Albornoz foreshadowed for Poloffs the defeat of
President Chavez's constitutional reform package at a time
when the government still appeared to enjoy significant
electoral advantages. He and his party endured Chavez's
attacks for declining to join the PSUV and seemed to gain
some ground in the wake of the defeat of the constitutional
package. PSUV efforts to steamroll small pro-Chavez parties
in the selection of gubernatorial and mayoral candidates for
November appear so far to have only stiffened their
resistance -- and may possibly force a real break -- with the
small, but better organized, PPT.

DUDDY