OPPOSITION STILL DIVIDED ON MOST STATE AND LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001000

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION STILL DIVIDED ON MOST STATE AND LOCAL
CANDIDATES

CARACAS 00001000 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. Mainstream opposition parties announced
consensus candidates for only seven of 22 gubernatorial races
in November in a July 15 press conference. While predicting
they would announce many more consensus gubernatorial and
mayoral candidates before registration begins August 5,
opposition leaders have fallen well short of their goal of
naming consensus candidates in most races by July 15.
Moreover, the local media is giving prominent attention to
public squabbling between opposition party leaders and
candidates. The opposition is having considerably less
success achieving consensus in races it has the best chances
to win, a trend that appears to be undermining opposition
candidates' prospects for success in the November state and
local elections. President Chavez's PSUV party is also
having difficulty achieving internal unity, but Chavez
appears to have a clear edge over the opposition in his
ability to impose pro-government consensus. End Summary.


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Partial Unity
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2. (SBU) Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) President Omar Barboza,
flanked by dour-faced mainstream opposition leaders, held a
July 15 press conference to announce consensus opposition
candidates for seven of 22 gubernatorial races. Only four of
the nine opposition parties that originally signed the
January 23 opposition "Unity Pact" sent representatives to
the press conference. Barboza said the opposition intends to
name 11 additional consensus gubernatorial candidates soon
based on recent polling and consensus candidates in over 100
mayoral races by July 22. He added that opposition parties
are trying to reach agreement among themselves on four other
states.


3. (C) Nueva Esparta Governor Morel Rodriguez was named the
opposition's consensus candidate one day after the National
Assembly announced it would investigate the governor for
alleged misappropriation of social welfare funds. He is the
only opposition gubernatorial candidate running for
re-election. Pablo Perez, Governor Manuel Rosales' protQgQ
in Zulia, was named the consensus candidate in Zula and also
spoke at the opposition press conference. Saady Bijani, the
Christian Democrat (COPEI) mayor of the second-largest
municipality in Zulia State, subsequently declared that he
will still run for governor as an independent, despite COPEI
threats to expel him from the party. Bijani's candidacy
could seriously undermine the opposition's prospects of
retaining the Zulia governorship.


4. (C) Local media have given prominent attention to public
sniping between the leaders of Accion Democratica (AD) and
COPEI in the run-up to the press conference. UNT Political
Director Luis Emilio Rondon told Poloff July 15 that
opposition parties were regrettably making partisan
assertions to the press in an effort to bolster their
parties' positions in ongoing internal negotiations over
candidacies. Rondon also lamented that opposition party
leaders are trying to divide up the electoral map "like a
cake," rather than honor their commitments to support the
most electable local candidate. So far, opposition consensus
has generally been hardest to achieve in areas in which the
opposition had the best chance of winning.

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Where Have All the Parties Gone?
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5. (C) The opposition gubernatorial candidates named so far,
with the exception of Pablo Perez in Zulia, are dominated by
well-known political personalities rather than emerging young
leaders of renovated opposition parties. Henrique Salas Feo
is a former governor of Carabobo; he and his father lead
their own political party, Project Venezuela. Nueva Esparta
Governor Morel Rodriguez is running for re-election as an
independent. Eduardo Morales Gil is a former governor of
Sucre running as an independent. Vargas gubernatorial
candidate Roberto Smith was a former 2006 presidential
pre-candidate and runs his own party, Venezuela First.
Miriam de Montilla in Apure is the wife of a former
three-time governor of that state. Datos' 2008 Second
Quarter polling shows only 13 percent of Venezuelan express

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confidence in political parties.


6. (C) Prominent pollster Alfredo Keller told A/DCM July 18
that opposition leaders are too inclined to assert their
parochial interests at expense of building a national
political alternative to Chavez that appeals to most
Venezuelans. He said that he thought the opposition had a
chance to win some 16 governorships in January; he now
estimates as few as four. Keller lamented that opposition
party leaders are using independent polls as tools of
"political manipulation" instead of as the ostensibly
agreed-upon means to reach consensus on the best candidates.
Keller noted that an opposition candidate for the mayor of
San Cristobal, the capital of Tachira State, even ran a
falsified Keller poll in a complicit local newspaper to
promote his candidacy. When Keller wrote a letter
complaining that he never conducted such a poll, the
candidate claimed Keller's letter was a forgery.

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The Proxy War
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7. (C) There is widespread concern within the opposition that
a growing rivalry between Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales and
Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez is futher undermining opposition
unity. Although both belong to the same UNT party, Lopez is
supporting Emilio Grateron, a Chacao Councilman, to replace
him as mayor over the UNT-endorsed candidate, Liliana
Hernandez. Pollster Alfredo Keller tells us that Lopez is
more popular in public opinion polls than Rosales, but notes
that most people still perceive Rosales as the de facto
opposition leader. Lopez is running for the Caracas
mayorship, but according to the Comptroller General's
administrative sanction, he is ineligible to run for public
office for several years. Most opposition activists,
including many UNT leaders, express private concern that
Rosales is diminishing his national status by running for the
Maracaibo mayorship.

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Comment
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8. (C) President Chavez's PSUV party is also experiencing
problems in forging pro-government consensus candidates, and
small allied parties like Patria Para Todos and the Communist
Party continue to complain that the PSUV continues to give
them short shrift. Nevertheless, Chavez has far more carrots
and sticks at his disposal than the disparate opposition
parties to foster pro-government consensus on state and local
candidates. According to the polling firm Datos, Chavez's
personal endorsement of a local candidate can lift that
candidate by at least 30 percent in opinion polls, thus
giving the Venezuelan president the power to marginalize
pro-government dissidents and independents.

DUDDY