ID LEADER DE LILLE BELIEVES ZUMA GOING TO JAIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAPE TOWN 000047 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF SUBJECT: ID LEADER DE LILLE BELIEVES ZUMA GOING TO JAIL REF: A. PRETORIA 43 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. 2000 PRETORIA 9150 ¶C. 2003 PRETORIA 3421 ¶D. PRETORIA 66 ¶E. CAPE TOWN 38 ¶F. PRETORIA 306 CAPE TOWN 00000047 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Eric M. Bost. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Prominent opposition leader Patricia de Lille believes ANC President Jacob Zuma will likely be convicted on fraud and corruption charges. De Lille doubts Zuma's trial, scheduled to begin in August, will be complete before the national parliamentary elections in March/April 2009, putting the ANC in an "awkward spot" given that it has already decided that the ANC president will be its candidate for national president. De Lille strongly opposes the ANC push to disband the Scorpions. She has always found the Scorpions to be effective and independent -- unlike the police. The latest political attack on the Scorpions comes from the ANC-led Parliamentary Intelligence Committee. The Committee charged that senior Scorpions officials drafted the "Special Mole Browse Report," which alleged that Angola and Libya funded Zuma's ANC election campaign. De Lille dismissed the Intelligence Committee criticism as politically motivated. END SUMMARY. -------------- Zuma Likely to be Found Guilty -------------- ¶2. (C) In a February 27 meeting in her parliamentary offices in Cape Town, Independent Democratic (ID) party leader Patricia de Lille told Ambassador, Consul General, and POLOFF (notetaker) that she believes Jacob Zuma will be convicted of fraud and corruption. The case against Zuma is nearly identical to that against Schabir Shaik -- and Shaik was convicted and lost every appeal (ref A). De Lille has "absolute faith" in the South African judiciary. She questioned whether the trial against Zuma would be completed before the national parliamentary elections in March/April 2009, noting that prosecutors want to call 218 witnesses, include de Lille herself. (NOTE: While still a member of the Pan African Congress (PAC),de Lille was one of the first Members of Parliament to raise questions about corruption in the arms deal (ref B). De Lille left the PAC to found the Independent Democrats in 2003 (ref C),but the party has struggled to attract support. In the 2004 elections, the ID garnered only 1.73 percent of the vote, mostly among the colored community in Western Cape. END NOTE.) ¶3. (C) If the trial of Zuma drags into 2009, the ANC will be put in an awkward position. The National Executive Committee (NEC) has already decided that the President of the ANC -- now Jacob Zuma -- will be the party's candidate for national president (ref D). Zuma himself is "quite stubborn" and is unlikely to step aside for another candidate, even if his trial is not complete before the election date. -------------- ANC Divided -------------- ¶4. (C) The ANC caucus in Parliament is divided, de Lille said, with Zuma supporters now largely in control of the leadership. The internal ANC squabbles and corruption scandals create political opportunities for opposition parties in the 2009 elections, de Lille said. She criticized Democratic Alliance (DA) leader Helen Zille for "cozying up" to the Mbeki camp in the ANC, telling Zille directly that "she is making a fool of herself." Mbeki and Zuma supporters are all still part of the same party machine. -------------- Opposition to End of Scorpions -------------- ¶5. (C) De Lille expressed her strong opposition to the ANC proposal to disband the Directorate for Special Operations of the National Prosecuting Authority, popularly known as the Scorpions (refs E & F). She has worked closely with the Scorpions on a number of corruption scandals, and has always found them independent and responsive -- unlike the police. The Scorpions, de Lille noted, were particularly effective because they had the power to arrest, investigate, and CAPE TOWN 00000047 002.2 OF 002 prosecute criminals. Mbeki has been ambiguous on whether the proposed new police unit, combining the Scorpions with the South African Police Service's Organized Crime Unit, will retain prosecutorial powers. De Lille thinks this is a key point and will specifically ask the President in Parliament on March 6 about the powers of the new unit. The current staff of the Scorpions are "morally drained" and exhausted by the constant attacks. Scorpions investigators are highly skilled, and many are already looking for other work. ¶6. (C) According to de Lille, Zuma supporters are using a Parliamentary Intelligence Committee investigation into the "Special Browse Mole Consolidated Report" to attack the Scorpions (septel). (NOTE: The Browse report was an internal South African Government document, leaked to the press in 2007, that alleged that the Governments of Angola and Libya were funding Jacob Zuma's campaign for ANC President against Thabo Mbeki. Zuma supporters claimed that the "Browse Mole Report" was fabricated and part of a dirty tricks campaign by Mbeki to discredit Zuma. END NOTE.) The Parliamentary report charged that senior Scorpions officials drafted the "Browse Mole Report," using faulty intelligence received from discredited "information peddlers" even though they had no mandate or authorization to do so. De Lille noted that this is the first time the Intelligence Committee has publicly released an internal report, confirming for her that the investigation is nothing more than a political witchhunt against the Scorpions. She expressed concern about the increasing use of state institutions to fight political battles. -------------- SAG Incompetence on Electricity Crisis -------------- ¶7. (C) Ambassador expressed his concern that South Africa's recent electricity crisis will discourage international investment in the country. De Lille agreed, noting that the crisis was a "wake-up call" to South Africans. Nearly 7,000 miners have already lost jobs due to the energy shortage. De Lille's party had called for the vote of no confidence in Mbeki's government because of their complete failure to deal with the energy issue, despite being alerted 10 years ago to the impending crisis (ref F). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Opinionated and energetic, de Lille has been unable to translate her personal popularity into electoral strength at the polls, in part because of her poor management of the party and large ego. However, de Lille continues to play a vocal role in Parliament and the press on issues of government accountability and corruption. We agree with de Lille that the ANC push to disband the Scorpions is unfortunate given the Directorate's strong record of successful prosecutions against corrupt officials and organized crime. ¶9. (U) MINIMIZE CONSIDERED FOR TRIPOLI. LA LIME