FREEDOM FRONT MP BEMOANS LACK OF ELECTION RESOURCES

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAPE TOWN 000230 E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF SUBJECT: FREEDOM FRONT MP BEMOANS LACK OF ELECTION RESOURCES Classified By: Consul General Alberta Mayberry, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Freedom Front Plus (FF ) Member of Parliament Pieter Groenewald on November 19 told PolOffs that while he thought the party would make strides in next year's national election, possibly doubling its five-member parliamentary delegation, he was pessimistic about the party's ability to raise funds in a crowded electoral landscape and boost its national profile. Groenewald noted that the Freedom Front was not averse to joining coalitions and would gladly do so as long as such moves did not compromise the party's values. Looking at the national political scene, while he did not believe the newly formed Congress of the People (COPE) would take a large number of votes, he was confident their presence would keep the ANC from winning a two-thirds majority. End summary. ¶2. (C) Groenewald -- a former Armscor executive who has been active in politics since the mid-1980s -- told Poloffs that he was generally optimistic about the Freedom Front's chances of expanding its support in next year's national election. Although the party's natural base -- Afrikaners primarily concerned with preserving their linguistic identity -- was a relatively small one, it is one that still had room for growth over the approximately one percent of the vote the party has received in polls since 1994. Groenewald noted that the party is very strong among young Afrikaner voters, who, he said, suffer from the legacy of apartheid without having received any of its benefits. Freedom Front representatives, he noted, control the Student Representative Councils of both the University of Pretoria and University of the Free State (both of which now are majority black). ¶3. (C) Groenewald also noted that the party has growing support among colored voters, most of whom are Afrikaans-speaking and share at least some of the party's concerns over the decline of Afrikaans as a medium. He added that further support from non-Afrikaans speakers was possible as well, noting that in 2004, to universal surprise, the Freedom Front won over 1,000 votes in Soweto. All in all, Groenewald thought these trends bode well for the Freedom Front, and he said he believed the party would double its five-member representation in Parliament after the 2009 poll. ¶4. (C) The big problem, however, was money -- a theme echoed by nearly every opposition party. Groenewald said the Freedom Front has a difficult time fundraising and that, since communal money given out by the Independent Electoral Commission is given out in proportion to party strength, the Freedom Front and other small parties were unable to leverage it for any real gain. Groenewald said this electoral cycle will be particularly challenging because for the first time, political parties will be allowed to have television advertisements. While some space on SABC is slated to be set aside for free advertising, the Freedom Front will not be able to compete with the ANC and larger opposition parties. ¶5. (C) While ultimately Groenewald had no hopes for the Freedom Front winning a large percentage of the vote, he said the party was not opposed to forming coaltions with other opposition parties. He pointed out Freedom Front coalition governments in Cape Town (where they back the DA-led city government) and Richards Bay (where they work with the IFP) as examples of this spirit of cooperation. -------------- THOUGHTS ON THE ANC AND COPE -------------- ¶6. (C) Despite the fact that the Freedom Front is a leading critic of the ANC government on a host of issues, Groenewald Qcritic of the ANC government on a host of issues, Groenewald claimed that relations between the two parties are very good. He noted that unlike other opposition leaders (notably Tony Leon when he was DA leader),Freedom Front leader Pieter Mulder met with Thabo Mbeki frequently and that the Freedom Front's platforms were well-respected by many within the ANC (even if they could not say so publicly). Groenewald said ANC Treasurer-General Matthews Phosa -- an accomplished Afrikaans poet -- told him that he respected the party because they did not say "yes baas" to the political establishment and were not afraid to stand up for their positions. ¶7. (C) Groenewald spoke favorably of Jacob Zuma -- whom he believes will be President -- for having gone out of his way to send the right messages to Afrikaners. Groenewald said Zuma has gone out of his way to visit poor whites in Pretoria West and has been accommodating of white South Africans in his public statements. This is a stark comparison to Mbeki, who repeatedly denied the existence of white poverty and, in Groenewald's opinion, is "racist." Asked whether he trusts Zuma, Groenewald admitted he did not, but he said the Freedom Front is keeping track of his promises and intends to hold him to them should he win the Presidency. ¶8. (C) Looking at the ramifications of the split in the ANC, Groenewald said he did not think COPE would be quite the electoral force that many political analysts were predicting. The ANC's split, he noted, was not an absolute one in that many capitalists, like Tokyo Sexwale, remained within the ANC and would allow it to retain a great deal of support. He pegged the new party's support at somewhere in the 10-12 percent range, noting that funding by business tycoon (and longtime Mbeki ally) Saki Macozoma would ensure its strength. This, he noted, would be enough to keep the ANC from winning a two-thirds majority, pegging its likely support at 63 percent. (Note: It is unclear how Groenewald arrived at these numbers, but their specificity suggests some sort of internal party polling. End note.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Groenewald's complaints about money are common ones among South Africa's opposition, even larger parties like the Democratic Alliance. The need for expensive television advertising in the upcoming poll will make this problem even more acute. Yet even if it were awash in cash, the Freedom Front's narrow focus on preserving Afrikaans language and culture would make it a tough sell beyond a small Afrikaner minority. The racial and ethnic specificity of its platform and constituency severely limits its potential and will continue to do so as long as it is popularly perceived as a "white party." While the party has carved out a niche and gained public attention for its attacks on corruption, the disbandment of the Scorpions, and the controversial arms deal, it has had -- and will have -- a hard time convincing voters they are worth a ballot, particularly with the DA, and maybe COPE, seeking to occupy the same political space. MAYBERRY