CODEL HOYER MEETS WITH PRIME MINISTER RUDD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000008 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2018 TAGS: AF AS CH IZ MOPS PREL SENV SUBJECT: CODEL HOYER MEETS WITH PRIME MINISTER RUDD Classified By: Charge Daniel A. Clune. Reason: 1.4 (C) ¶1. Summary: (C/NF) On January 6, a 13-member Congressional delegation led by House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO) had an extraordinarily friendly and wide-ranging discussion with Prime Minister Rudd at his Sydney residence, Kirribilli House. Topics included the need to engage the Europeans more in the war in Afghanistan, the Prime Minister's views on China, the importance of the U.S.- Australia alliance, strategies for addressing climate change and key issues in the recent Australian election. End Summary. -------------- AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Majority Leader Hoyer told the Prime Minister that there was a consensus in the Congress on the war in Afghanistan, but that, in his view, the Europeans were not doing what they needed to do. The Prime Minister, who had visited Kabul two weeks previously, said that he had supported the war "from day one," but confided that "Afghanistan scares the hell out of me." Across our European allies, he explained, there was no common strategy for winning the war or winning the peace. In the southeastern part of the country, the Americans, Canadians, British, Australians and the Dutch were doing the "hard stuff," while, in the relatively peaceful Northwest, the Germans and the French were "organizing folk dance festivals." The PM noted that Australian Defense Minister Fitzgibbon and Defense Secretary Gates left the Edinburgh conference with similar SIPDIS views on the need to develop a comprehensive strategy before the April Heads of Government meeting in Bucharest, which he might attend. He concluded by noting that the national security establishment in Australia was very pessimistic about the long-term prognosis for Afghanistan. -------------- CHINA -------------- ¶3. (SBU/NF) In response to Hoyer,s inquiry regarding his views on China, Rudd began by noting that the great foreign policy challenge for Australia in the twenty-first century would be "how to wrestle with this giant." He told the delegation that "this isn't going to be easy" and he didn't approach the problem with "rose-colored glasses." Nonetheless, he said, he was, on balance, an optimist -- not because he believes the regime will democratize, but rather because he's hopeful that the effort to convince the Chinese that it is in their national interest to become a responsible stakeholder in the rules-based global system will be successful. -------------- ALLIANCE -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Both members of the delegation and the Prime Minister stressed the continuing strength and importance of the U.S.- Australian alliance. Majority Leader Hoyer told the Prime Minister that Australia was one of the U.S.,s "best friends in the world." Representative Ray LaHood (R-IL),who serves on the Select Intelligence Oversight Panel of the Appropriations Committee, said the U.S. has no better friend on intelligence issues than Australia and hoped the relationship would continue to thrive. The Prime Minister told the delegation that maintaining a strong Alliance with the United States was the number one foreign policy principle for Australia for both Labor and Coalition governments. He Qfor Australia for both Labor and Coalition governments. He noted that the alliance was forged in his home state, Queensland, where General MacArthur established his headquarters in the early days of the war during the administration of Labor Prime Minister Curtin. He told Representative LaHood that one of the pillars of the U.S.- Australia relationship was the 1947 UK-U.S.- Australia intelligence agreement, which had been a great success, and assured him that intelligence cooperation, which greatly benefits both countries, would continue. -------------- CLIMATE CHANGE -------------- ¶5. (SBU/NF) Representative Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) noted that he had not seen any nuclear power plants in the country and asked the Prime Minister about his strategy for dealing CANBERRA 00000008 002 OF 002 with climate change and meeting Australia's energy needs. Rudd explained that his government was committed to a cap and trade system and would set emissions targets in six months and have a system up and running by late 2009 or early 2010. The government has set a target of using renewable energy for 20 percent of its energy needs by 2020. Both initiatives will increase the price of energy, but economists estimate that, as a result, GDP growth would decrease by less than one-half of one percent. He stressed the importance of clean coal technology to the global effort and the special responsibility of Australia, the world's largest coal exporter, to develop and share those technologies with countries that depend on coal for a substantial part of their energy needs, such as China and India. He would prefer to concentrate on "getting coal right" instead of developing a nuclear power industry. The Prime Minister told the delegation that, in his view, one missing element in the global effort to cope with climate change was U.S. leadership. He hoped the U.S. would commit itself to achievable emissions targets, and thereby prevent China and India from citing lack of U.S. participation as an excuse for refusing to make commitments in a post-Kyoto agreement. -------------- THE ELECTION -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) The Prime Minister told the delegation that Labor Party polling indicated that there had been three important issues for voters in the November 24 election. The first was a perception that the Coalition government had lost touch with the voters and had enacted industrial relations legislation that adversely affected their interests. The second was climate change and the third was the war in Iraq, which unlike the war in Afghanistan, never had a domestic constituency. Despite the unpopularity of the war, he assured the delegation, he would not "pull a Zapatero," and, while Australia's Overwatch Battle Group would be withdrawn by mid-August, he was leaving the forces embedded in the command structure in place. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (U/NF) All members of the delegation, Republican and Democrat, left the meeting deeply impressed with the new Prime Minister's grasp of the issues and interpersonal skills. Majority Leader Hoyer remarked that, although Rudd had not begun his career as a politician, he had become an exceptionally good one. The meeting, which was preceded by a short photo opportunity, received widespread and favorable coverage in the press. CLUNE