DOMESTIC POLITICAL WEEK IN AUSTRALIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000723 NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2018 TAGS: AS PGOV SUBJECT: DOMESTIC POLITICAL WEEK IN AUSTRALIA Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES COLE. REASON: 1.4 (D) NASTY LIBERAL PRE-SELECTION FIGHT IN SA ¶1. (SBU) The Liberal Party will hold a candidate pre-election on Sunday July 20 to choose its candidate for a by-election caused by the resignation of former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer. Nine candidates and a preferential voting system make the outcome extremely unpredictable. Most observers believe the front-runners to be Jamie Briggs (a former adviser workplace relations adviser to John Howard),former South Australian Opposition leader Lain Evans, and farmer David Basham. Briggs and Evans have support from the right of the party, while Basham has support from moderate faction. ¶2. (SBU) The moderates are attempting to undermine Brigg's credibility by linking him to the Howard administration's unpopular WorkChoices laws. The head of the moderates, Federal MP Christopher Pyne, is strongly opposed to Briggs. Briggs is being backed by Howard, Downer and former Howard Chief of Staff Arthur Sinodinis. Howard has written a reference for Briggs. The pre-selection has caused tension between Downer and his long-time factional allay, Senate Leader Nick Minchin - Minchin is backing his former adviser Matt Doman. ¶3. (SBU) A Minchin adviser told us recently that it is impossible to confidently predict an outcome, while a Pyne adviser maintained to us that Evans is the front-runner. Former Liberal Federal Director Lynton Crosby believes Basham has the best chance of winning. The South Australian Liberal Executive, dominated by moderates, moved the pre-selection forward two days to Sunday. It is believed this will benefit Basham because a weekend pre-selection makes it easier for his rural based supporters to attend the pre-selection. Briggs has put the most effort into winning the pre-selection. For the last 6 months he has assiduously courted pre-selectors. The backing of Howard - still popular with the Liberal rank and file - might be enough to get him over the line. ALP "HIGHLY UNLIKELY" TO RUN IN MAYO ¶4. (C/NF) An ALP Assistant State Secretary told us this week that it is "highly unlikely" that the ALP will run a candidate in Mayo because it is a safe Liberal seat; and it would cost $100,000 to $300,000 to run a credible face-saving campaign. HOWARD BACKS NELSON ¶5. (C/NF) An adviser to Federal Liberal leader Brendan Nelson had a lengthy conversation with former PM John Howard early this week. The adviser told us that Howard believed Nelson had adopted the right strategy by warning the public of "economic suicide" if Australia adopted an emissions trading system before the rest of the world. However, following pressure from the media and colleagues, Nelson reverted to the Coalition's policy of backing the introduction of an emissions trading scheme by 2012 - regardless of what other countries do. Ironically, Howard was Liberal leader when the Liberals adopted this policy. CLUNE