RUDD'S FOREIGN POLICY--AN OVERVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000059 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2018 TAGS: PREL AF IR IN IZ CH JA AS SUBJECT: RUDD'S FOREIGN POLICY--AN OVERVIEW Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Daniel Clune. Reason: 1.4 (C an d D) ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will tailor his foreign policy initiatives around three key elements: the U.S. alliance, multilateralism, and engagement with Asia. Rudd views the relationship with the U.S. as "core business," but will pursue a more independent stance on such issues as climate change and Iraq. The new Prime Minister believes the Howard Government rejected multilateralism for ideological reasons and supports cooperative engagement with multilateral institutions. The Mandarin-speaking Rudd, who served as an Australian diplomat in Beijing, will aim to broaden the bilateral relationship beyond the economic sphere but will be realistic and rational in dealing with China. Australia's ties with Japan will remain strong but Rudd will be sensitive to Beijing,s fears that the Australia-U.S.-Japan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue is directed against China. India,s economic relationship with Australia is growing, but New Delhi,s non-NPT status could complicate the relationship over nuclear materials supply issues. Rudd will also focus more attention on the Pacific Island countries, working cooperatively with them and increasing aid to catalyze economic development and address the underlying causes of instability. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C/NF) This reporting is based on a review of Prime Minister Rudd's interviews and speeches on foreign policy, and comments made to Embassy officials by Mr. Rudd himself and other members of his cabinet. Post has also met with various academics on the issue of a Rudd foreign policy and with Richard Woolcott, the Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade when Rudd worked there as a diplomat. KEEPING A STRONG ALLIANCE ¶3. (C/NF) The U.S. remains Australia's most important partner, according to Rudd, and he will continue to uphold and strengthen the alliance. Rudd publicly promotes the U.S. as a force for good and essential to maintaining stability in Asia. Intelligence sharing and combined military access and training with the U.S. are key to Australia's strategic interests. Rudd believes the two countries can work together on issues such as nuclear proliferation, the rise of militant Islam, and regional pandemics. Rudd and Labor's support for military engagement in Afghanistan demonstrates that Australia will remain a strong ally in the war on terrorism. Rudd, however, will take a more independent stance on some issues and will pull back from what he has characterized as former Prime Minister Howard's "unquestioning cheer squad" policy. Rudd immediately ratified the Kyoto Protocol following his election victory, and he is set to put Australia on the international center stage of environmental policy initiatives. MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS ¶4. (C/NF) Rudd has stated that the need to strengthen multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations, World Bank, and APEC, is a practical reality. Before he became Prime Minister, Rudd said that under his leadership, Australia would pursue a course of multilateral realism. He wants to build up and restore the integrity of the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Rudd maintains that the NPT,s QProliferation Treaty (NPT). Rudd maintains that the NPT,s credibility is at risk of collapsing due to North Korea's nuclear tests and Iran's defiance of international calls to halt its nuclear ambitions. CHINA ¶5. (C/NF) Rudd will likely move to expand Australia's relationship with China beyond the growing economic links the two countries share now. He wants to establish a strategic dialogue with China - an initiative of the previous Howard government. His experience with and knowledge of political dynamics in China will lead Rudd to take a realistic stance, however. He does not, as some observers have suggested, fall in the "panda hugger" category. Rudd is eager to promote good U.S.-China relations and will likely offer to act as an intermediary between China and the West on such issues as climate change. Despite Rudd's positive statements on China, he is concerned with China's nuclear and military CANBERRA 00000059 002 OF 002 modernization programs. His approach will be based on former Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick,s call for China to be a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system. THE WAR ON TERROR ¶6. (C/NF) Rudd views Afghanistan as a vital showdown with international terrorists and during his December visit to Afghanistan, he stated that Australia was "in it for the long haul." Rudd's withdrawal of 500 troops from Iraq in mid-2008 will be done in close consultation with Washington and in a way that he hopes will not embarrass or endanger the U.S. As noted in earlier reporting, Rudd assured us that he will not "pull a Zapatero" in Iraq. Australia will still maintain about 1000 troops in and around the country. Recent statements suggest that Rudd will not deploy the 500 troops withdrawn from Iraq to Afghanistan, as he had previously suggested in campaign statements. IRAN ¶7. (C/NF) Rudd supports international sanctions against Iran and considers the country a deeper concern in terms of wider regional security. Rudd has condemned Iran's support of terrorists, their pursuit of a nuclear program, and statements about "wiping Israel off the map." In October, he threatened legal proceedings against Ahmadinejad on a charge of incitement to genocide. Since the election, experts at DFAT have told him that such a move is not possible, but the statement reflects his strong negative feelings toward the Iranian leader. JAPAN ¶8. (C/NF) Japan will remain one of Australia's closest friend in the region because of Japan's trade ties, democratic tradition and transparency but China's hypersensitivity to encirclement will likely deter Rudd from pushing any closer strategic relationship. He opposes a bilateral defense pact, in view of China,s concern of perceived containment. INDIA ¶9. (C/NF) On January 15 Rudd,s Foreign Minister Stephen Smith announced that Australia will not consider selling uranium to India absent its signing the NPT. The nuclear issue remains a thorny problem for the left-of-center Labor Party and will remain an obstacle to development of the bilateral relationship. The new government is still considering its stance on approval of the U.S.-India agreement in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. India is an increasingly important trading partner, being the fourth largest importer of Australian products. ARC OF INSTABILITY ¶10. (C/NF) Rudd will look to restore Australia's diplomatic ties with countries in the so-called arc of instability, particularly Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Solomon Islands (SI). Rudd believes that a more development-oriented approach to Australia's island neighbors will pay bigger dividends than what he saw as the Howard Government's over-reliance on military intervention. Relations with the two countries have already improved, with the new SI government extraditing Julian Moti, its former Attorney General who is wanted in Australia on sex offenses. Rudd is especially concerned with Chinese influence in the Pacific and sees Australian leverage ebbing thanks to massive Chinese aid flows. Rudd stated that Australia will increase aid to the region to target economic development and address the Qthe region to target economic development and address the underlying problems behind the instability. He is likely to maintain Australian presence in Timor-Leste and in SI under the auspices of RAMSI. MCCALLUM