AUSMIN 2008: SESSION I (IRAQ, IRAN, MIDDLE EAST)

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 CANBERRA 000178 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018 TAGS: OVIP GATES ROBERT OVIP NEGROPONTE JOHN PGOV PREL, AS SUBJECT: AUSMIN 2008: SESSION I (IRAQ, IRAN, MIDDLE EAST) CANBERRA 00000178 001.2 OF 005 Classified By: Ambassador Robert D. McCallum, Jr. Reasons 1.4. (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) February 23, 2008; Parliament House, Canberra, Australia. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY. The 2008 Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) -- the first AUSMIN hosted by the recently-elected Labor government -- opened with Foreign Minister Smith and Defence Minister Fitzgibbon strongly reaffirming the transcendence of the alliance and committing to strengthen the partnership globally and within the Asia-Pacific region. In the first session, the parties reviewed Australia's active role in the region, which they agreed provided a strong platform for continued United States engagement. In Iraq, both sides downplayed the impact on the bilateral relationship of Australia's planned withdrawal of combat troops in mid-2008, with Australia signaling willingness to consider additional non-combat inputs in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Recent legislative success by the Iraqi Parliament and the improving security situation have provided opportunities for civil and capacity building engagement. Iran is of great concern for the partners. AUSMIN confirmed a common set of goals for pressuring Iran to halt its nuclear program; including continued and stronger sanctions. Australia noted opportunities for engagement, including through its embassy in Tehran. Finally, the AUSMIN delegates addressed the Middle East and the work in progress on the peace process. The reliance on regional partners and encouragement of the bilateral relationship emerged as the most important common goals. The opening session of AUSMIN was marked by the commitment of participants to move forward on security, counterterrorism and capacity building in the joint efforts of the two nations. This is the first of four reporting cables on AUSMIN 2008. End summary. ¶3. (U) Participants: UNITED STATES Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates SIPDIS Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte Ambassador Robert D. McCallum, Jr. Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Timothy J. Keating, Commander, United States Pacific Command Acting Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs Stephen Mull Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian & Pacific Security Affairs James Shinn Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian & Pacific Affairs Glyn Davies Tim Davis, Carol Hanlon, Aleisha Woodward, John Crowley, QTim Davis, Carol Hanlon, Aleisha Woodward, John Crowley, Jessica Powers (Notetakers) AUSTRALIA Minister for Foreign Affairs Stephen Smith Minister for Defence Joel Fitzgibbon Michael L,Estrange, Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Nick Warner, Secretary of the Department of Defence Air Chief Marshall Angus Houston, Chief of the Defence Force Duncan Lewis, Deputy Secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet Peter Varghese, Director General of the Office of National Assessments CANBERRA 00000178 002.2 OF 005 Dennis Richardson, Australian Ambassador to the United States Berenice Owen-Jones, Alistair McEachern, Alanna Mackay, Antony Horrocks, Marina Tsirbas, Amanda Pickrell, John Feakes, Peter West (notetakers). -------------- THE ALLIANCE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Foreign Minister Stephen Smith set the tone for the AUSMIN meeting by stating the newly elected Australian government considers the relationship between the two nations as "business as usual." He described the alliance as long-term, enduring and indispensable. Deputy Secretary Negroponte told the Australian delegation he believed that Australia's strategic perspective in the Pacific region closely mirrored that of the United States, with only nuanced differences. He asserted that the United States is a Pacific country and would continue to seek to defend and advance common interests through alliances with Australia, Japan and South Korea. -------------- ASIA-PACIFIC STRATEGIC OVERVIEW -------------- ¶5. (C/REL AUS) Foreign Minister Smith provided a strategic overview of the region and Australia's role. Among highlights of the broad-ranging exchange, he suggested Australia wanted to redress the long-standing neglect of its relationship with India, an important country whose rising power was underestimated. He stressed the GOA's commitment to closer engagement with the Pacific Islands. Unlike the "first class" relationship with Indonesia that the previous Australian government had bequeathed the current government, relationships with other Pacific islands, notably Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, were not as good, although they had the potential to develop positively. Defence Minister Fitzgibbon suggested Australia's posture towards global and regional challenges would hinge in part on new strategic guidance being developed in a updated White Paper. He noted the high percentage of Australian forces currently deployed -- three of its six battalions -- limited Australia's capacity to respond militarily to new global challenges. "For a small country, with a limited budget, we have many problems to tackle," Fitzgibbon said. He expressed that the goal of the White Paper would be to adjust Australia's posture for global conflicts of the future. -------------- ENGAGEMENT IN IRAQ -------------- ¶8. (C/REL AUS) Secretary Gates described a number of positive Q8. (C/REL AUS) Secretary Gates described a number of positive developments in Iraq. The recent extension of the cease-fire of the Mahdi Army Militia forces by Muqtada Al Sadr was a positive sign. He also cited passage by the Iraq National Assembly of a budget, and legislation on provincial powers and an amnesty agreement, which were useful steps forward politically for Iraq. In speaking about the present state of the military surge in Diyala province he noted the strong effort by local civilians to aid in the fight against Al Qaeda in Iraq. The surge had been greatly aided by Iraqi cooperation, according to Secretary Gates. He cautioned that it would be important for the United States to help the CANBERRA 00000178 003.2 OF 005 government of Iraq create jobs for those who had moved away from violence and who would be returning to look for jobs. ¶9. (S/REL AUS) A major challenge facing coalition partners in Iraq is the negotiation of a long-term strategic framework and a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA),Secretary Gates told the Australian delegation. The U.S. sees the framework as a way to help legitimize other coalition member states, but the SOFA will be a challenge. The Iraqis, Gates offered, will see it as a question of sovereignty and seek to assert this view during the SOFA negotiations. Deputy Secretary Negroponte also noted the challenge of assisting the Iraqis in executing their budget in an effective manner. He is encouraged that the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) are beginning to reap benefits in Iraq. There are twenty-five PRTs operating in Iraq and the United States sees them as a long-term commitment that may outlive any major military commitment. ¶10. (C/REL AUS) "We have always believed that the drawdown of our Overwatch Battle Group would not affect the alliance", offered Foreign Minister Smith. He noted that the Australian military would leave air and maritime assets in the region and the government looked forward to being able to make an announcement soon regarding non-military capacity building and training efforts in Iraq. Defense Minister Fitzgibbon added that Australia's issue with troops in Iraq is a matter of the job having been completed and capacity. Should something in the Pacific region go "pear-shaped" we would begin to feel the effects of our forces being stretched, Smith said. The Australian delegation also made the point that Al Muthana province has been under Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC) for over eighteen months. By the time Australian combat troops redeploy, the province will have been under PIC for 2 full years. Chief of Defense Forces Air Marshal Angus Houston assured the U.S. delegation that Australian combat forces would continue their work until the last day of their deployment. ¶11. (C/REL AUS) The participants discussed regional assistance for Iraq. There was general agreement that the regional partners have been cooperative and forward leaning. Deputy Secretary Negroponte noted that both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are exploring options for opening missions in Baghdad and that there has been a large commitment to projects in Qand that there has been a large commitment to projects in Iraq. Secretary Gates offered that it is important that the regional neighbors move towards embracing Iraq lest they be left to look east to Iran. He acknowledged that there is regional concern about a strong Shia bloc of Iraq and Iran. He noted the increasing reports of Iraq's Shia "pushing back" against Iran. He noted that as security continues to improve he expects to see more and greater engagement by Iraq,s regional neighbors. The two delegations discussed the need for Iraqis to seize the opportunities provided by the surge. In some ways, Secretary Gates observed, we've asked Iraqis to accomplish more than even the U.S. did as it became a nation. -------------- JOINT ACTION ON IRAN -------------- ¶12. (S/REL AUS) There was general agreement on the issue of the Iranian nuclear program and destabilizing activity in the region. Both delegations noted their support for United Nations Security Council Resolutions and the UN process. CANBERRA 00000178 004.2 OF 005 There is shared concern over Iran's pattern of nuclear development and support for terrorism. From Iraq to Lebanon, the partners noted that Iran has eschewed an international framework for peace and continues to be provocative. Deputy Secretary Negroponte noted that the Iranian government is SIPDIS responsible for supplying explosively formed projectiles (EFP) to the Taliban in Afghanistan. ¶13. (S/REL AUS) Secretary Gates offered that Russian President Vladimir Putin had confided to him that a nuclear weapons capable Iran was Russia's greatest security concern. The Secretary added the U.S. hoped that Putin would join the international community in response to this concern. Nick Warner, Secretary of the Department of Defence, offered that "sticks are fine, but carrots are also necessary". He suggested the U.S. should consider a grand rapprochement. Reformers still exist in Iran, he insisted. "It may take five or ten years for the political cycle to bring them back, but the U.S. should be ready to engage," Warner said. On the question of diplomatic relations, Secretary Gates noted that every U.S. president since 1979 has tried in some way to engage Iran without success. "They show no desire to work with the international community." He also stated that there has been dialogue and opportunity via talks that have been held in Baghdad and with the EU-3; France, Germany and the United Kingdom. These nations can be useful in bringing Iran into the international community. Secretary Gates allowed that the multilateral channel could provide a path to a civil nuclear program for Iran, but only after Iran is in full compliance. ¶14. (S/REL AUS) There may be no "grand bargain", but sanctions, even small sanctions, have an effect, asserted Secretary Gates. The Iranians don't like pressure. "They SIPDIS must be faced with hard choices," Secretary Gates said. Sanctions that target the leadership have been particularly effective. The banking community is working effectively to stem the flow of capital into the country's economy. The Australian delegation offered that their embassy in Tehran provides a great opportunity to understand what is occurring in the country. Foreign Minister Smith offered Australia's help in providing context and assistance in the effort to bring Iran into the international community. -------------- THE MIDDLE EAST, POST ANNAPOLIS QTHE MIDDLE EAST, POST ANNAPOLIS -------------- ¶15. (C/REL AUS) The President of the United States is committed to pressing forward in the Middle East and may return to the region this calendar year, Deputy Secretary Negroponte told the AUSMIN delegates. Both delegations agreed that it was important to increase the security capacity of the Palestinian Authority. Foreign Minister Smith noted that Australia has doubled its financial assistance post-Annapolis and supported strongly the U.S. effort in the peace process. ¶16. (C/REL AUS) The Deputy Secretary offered that the U.S. effort was broad and intense. He noted that the Israelis and Palestinians are working bilaterally on the shape of the settlement and that the U.S. has brought in General James Jones, former Commandant of the Marine Corps, to work on regional security architecture. On the question of Syria, Deputy Secretary Negroponte said that it was important to CANBERRA 00000178 005.2 OF 005 work on the issue in a logical manner. Syrian assistance has been troublesome and there is great effect in the work of some regional states. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has taken a lead in helping to stabilize Lebanon and blunting Syrian interference. ¶17. (U) Secretary Gates, PM Acting Assistant Secretary Mull, and EAP Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Davies cleared on this cable. MCCALLUM