AUSTRALIAN RESPONSE: CHINA MILITARY POWER, U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001246 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/ANP E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018 TAGS: MARR PREL AS SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN RESPONSE: CHINA MILITARY POWER, U.S. DOD 2008 REPORT TO CONGRESS REF: STATE 20659 Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Australian views and efforts on Chinese military modernization largely mirror those of the U.S. according to John Quinn, Assistant Secretary, Strategic Issues and Intelligence Branch, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Quinn reiterated to Poloffs on December 9 the need for greater transparency coupled with responsible engagement as the most important issues for global Chinese relations. He suggested that Australia may be more forward leaning about engaging the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in regional Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HA/DR) efforts than the U.S., while acknowledging the need to balance the risks of exposing the Chinese to modernizations that would fill gaps in their military. Quinn emphasized the value of continuing U.S. bilateral discussions on the order of the "Crawford Talks" (NOTE: These were held in Canberra on the margins of the POL-MIL meetings in October 2008, under the chairmanship of OSD Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, David Sedney. End Note.). He pointed out that ineffective responses to the global financial crisis or exacerbated responses to internal political pressures could disrupt China's normally pragmatic view and highlighted the need for a direct link between the U.S. and China to manage crisis situations. Quinn expressed hope that there would be continuity on U.S. Chinese policy under the new U.S. administration. End summary. ¶2. (C/NF) In a formal response to the 2008 U.S. DOD Report to Congress on China's Military Power, Assistant Secretary John Quinn advised the Embassy that Australian views and efforts largely mirror those of the U.S. He reiterated the need for greater transparency coupled with responsible engagement as the most important issues for global Chinese relations. Quinn noted Australian bilateral engagements with China during 2008 at the Ministerial level in February and through defense talks in July. He characterized these discussions as "frank and open". Quinn observed that FM Smith pointedly requested greater transparency from China on its military modernization intent and accounting. Quinn noted Australia may be more forward leaning than the U.S. in its efforts to actively engage the PLA in regional HA/DR activities, but acknowledged the risks from additional Chinese exposure to other military capabilities. He also said that Australia seeks to increase Chinese engagement in ASEAN activities in Southeast Asia. On the other hand, the GOA remains concerned about China's support for Sudanese leadership and its unhelpful role in Zimbabwe. Quinn noted that China's participation in the Six Party Talks has been helpful and expressed hope that the next administration would continue to engage China as a responsible stakeholder in these discussions. ¶3. (C/NF) The intentions of China's power projection capabilities remain obscured by the lack of accurate and timely reporting, Quinn observed, noting that the annual military expenditures report China promised to the UN Secretary General has yet to be produced. In bilateral discussions, Australia suggested China address these issues in its forthcoming Defense White Paper. Quinn noted that Australian intelligence reporting concurs with U.S. estimates of Chinese defense spending at twice the reported levels. He remarked that China's modernization of its nuclear forces Qremarked that China's modernization of its nuclear forces creates command and control uncertainty, shifting from centrally controlled, silo-based weapons to mobile weapons under local command. He also noted advances made in the last ten years to accelerated the transfer of dual use technology between the civil and military arenas. With many young Chinese drawn into more lucrative private enterprise positions, Quinn questioned who may be currently joining the PLA, the composition of its future leadership, and the impact of corruption on military modernization efforts. He indicated that China's long-term military agenda remains unclear and that Australia continues to seek greater transparency through its bilateral discussions. ¶4. (C/NF) Quinn emphasized the utility of continuing U.S. bilateral forums on China in 2009. He mentioned the benefits of the "Crawford Talks" several times and indicated a strong desire to continue these (NOTE: These were held in Canberra on the margins of the POL-MIL meetings in October 2008, under the chairmanship of OSD Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, David Sedney. End Note.). ¶5. (C/NF) Quinn identified the danger of potential future disruptions to China's normally pragmatic approach, which could result from ineffective responses to the global financial crisis, exacerbated responses to internal political pressures, or a confrontation over maritime "pushing and shoving". He commented that potential disruptions such as these highlight the importance of a direct telephone links between the U.S. and China to provide a safety valve for both countries to avoid dangerous misunderstandings. ¶6. (C/NF) Quinn provided a documented response which has been scanned and sent by classified email to Aleisha Woodward, Australia Desk Officer, EAP/ANP. MCCALLUM