SURGE IN BOAT PEOPLE BECOMES POLITICAL ISSUE

UNCLAS CANBERRA 001238 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SMIG PREF AS SUBJECT: SURGE IN BOAT PEOPLE BECOMES POLITICAL ISSUE ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Opposition is blaming a surge in the number of illegal boat people on the Rudd Government's relaxation of the former Howard Government's border protection policies. Since the policy toward illegal refugees was changed in August, six people-smuggling boats traveling from Indonesia have been caught in Australian waters, compared with none in the ten months prior to the changes. On December 7, an Indonesian boat carrying 44 refugees was caught in Australian waters. The same day, the Government announced it would provide additional resources to monitor Australia's northern maritime approaches. The Government denies the increased arrivals correlate to the relaxation in visa policy, instead claiming it is the season for boat crossings. The Howard Government's tough stance toward illegal boat people, exemplified by the stopping of the container ship Tampa, was very popular with the Australian public and helped it win the 2001 election. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) Six boats attempting to carry illegal refugees from Indonesia to Australia have been intercepted since August 9 when the Rudd Government abolished a policy enacted by the Howard Government that made it more difficult for arriving boat people to resettle in Australia. So far this month, a boat carrying 37 Afghans was intercepted off Ashmore Reef and taken to Christmas Island and on December 7, a boat carrying 47 potential asylum-seekers was spotted in Australian waters. The total number of boat people detained so far this year stands at 127, as opposed to 150 that arrived on five boats last year and the 60 that arrived on six boats in 2006. ¶3. (U) Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has charged that there is a "real problem" with border security, noting that the six boats that had arrived since August. Last week, PM Rudd maintained that there was no surge in smuggling and the numbers spotted recently merely reflected the fact that this was the season for small boats to attempt to cross from Indonesia, but after the latest incident, the Government announced that an additional navy vessel and surveillance aircraft would be added to patrol the waters between Australia and Indonesia. ¶4. (U) On August 9, the Rudd Government abolished Temporary Protection Visas (TPVs). Introduced by the Howard Government in 1999, unauthorized asylum seekers were given TPVs instead of permanent visas. At the end of three years, TPY recipients could either apply for another TPY or return to their country of origin. This was intended to discourage smuggling and the introduction of TPYs, along with the additional measures taken in 2001, correlated in a significant drop in the number of unauthorized arrivals. In August, the Rudd Government announced a new policy that grants illegal refugees the same benefits as legal refugees. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: John Howard's tough stance against illegal refugees trying to cross in small boats from Indonesia helped him win the 2001 election and the Government will suffer if the public believes that it is "soft" on illegal immigrants. Rudd knows this is an issue on which he must look tough but the Australian Navy is planning on sending thousands of sailors on extended Christmas leave and the Opposition is Qsailors on extended Christmas leave and the Opposition is claiming the Government may not have the assets required to curb what may be a surge of illegal immigrants attempting the crossing from Indonesia. It will be interesting to see how far Turnbull - a social liberal - pushes this issue. MCCALLUM