NEW PARLIAMENT TO MEET: LEADERS FACE SCRUTINY

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000114 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018 TAGS: AS PGOV SUBJECT: NEW PARLIAMENT TO MEET: LEADERS FACE SCRUTINY Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES F. COLE. REASON: 1.4 (b) and (C) ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: The ALP and Coalition will be under the media spotlight next week when the new Parliament sits for the first time. In Question Time, the Opposition will seek to put the Rudd Government on the defensive, particularly on the key issue of the economy. The performance of Liberal leader Brendan Nelson, who some observers here believe will be deposed before the next election, will be heavily scrutinized following a less than convincing start. An apology by the government to those in the Aboriginal community who were affected by the removal of indigenous children from their parents in the mid 20th century will be the Government's first item of parliamentary business. After much internal debate, the Coalition has finally given - in principle - support for the apology. The other big item of parliamentary business is the Rudd Government's winding back of the previous government's "WorkChoices" laws - arguably the biggest factor in the ALP's election victory. The Coalition's position on this will become clearer when the Government introduces the legislation. Coalition MPs are divided on the extent to which WorkChoices should be rolled back. With the Coalition holding a majority in the Senate until July, the Government may not get its way on this issue, but the Coalition will be on dangerous political ground if the public believes it still supports WorkChoices. END SUMMARY OPENING OF PARLIAMENT ¶2. (U) At 3:00 pm on Tuesday February 12, the 42nd Parliament of Australia will assemble. There will be a joint sitting of Parliament in the House of Representatives which will include the swearing in of MPs, the election of the House of Representatives Speaker (it will be ALP MP Harry Jenkins) and a speech by the Governor-General outlining the Government's legislative program. For the first time, the opening of parliament will include an Aboriginal ceremony on the floor of the Parliament. HOW NELSON CAME TO BE SORRY ¶3. (SBU) On February 13, Rudd will move a motion apologizing to those affected by the forcible removal, decades ago, of indigenous children from their parents - the "Stolen Generation." This was an election commitment by the ALP. Former Prime Minister John Howard was strongly opposed to an apology, believing one generation shouldn't have to apologize for the actions of another. However, in 1999 he moved a motion of "deep and sincere" regret for what had happened and said "it was the most blemished chapter in the history of our country". Right-wing opponents of an apology have posited that: some of the removals were justified, that it would open up the Australian Government to compensation claims and that it was another example of the Left's obsession with "symbolism" and the "rights agenda". When Rudd announced on January 28 that the Government would apologize during the first parliamentary sitting week, Nelson and Indigenous Affairs Spokesman Tony Abbott virtually reaffirmed Howard's position against an apology. ¶4. (SBU) However, as media pressure mounted and as Liberal MPs revealed their support for an apology, Abbott and Nelson gradually shifted their position to one of "possible" support for an apology if the wording was right. Nelson said he would not reveal whether he supported an apology until after he had consulted his MPs. On February 6, Rudd presented Nelson with seven points that would be included in the apology, but did not provide the text of the apology which apparently has not Qnot provide the text of the apology which apparently has not been finalized. After a four hour meeting of Coalition MPs that day, Nelson met the media to announce that the Coalition had approved - in principle - support for the apology. "We believe that it's morally and practically important in terms of understanding and addressing the way that many Aboriginal people feel about this issue," Nelson said. A small number of Liberal MPs opposed to an apology are considering abstaining from voting, rather than undermining Nelson's authority by voting against the apology motion. COALITION DEBATES IT'S INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS POSITION ¶5. (SBD) On February 7, Coalition MPs met in Canberra with industrial relations at the top of the agenda. Some MPs said the Coalition should stand by Australian Workplace Agreements (individual contracts),which the Rudd government is committed to abolishing. AWA supporters point out that AWAs were introduced in 1996, some 10 years before the highly unpopular Work Choices legislation (which reduced the number of minimum standards for work contracts to just five) enacted by Howard's government. Others in the Coalition argued, however, that the ALP and the unions have successfully linked WorkChoices to AWAs in the public perception, making support for AWA untenable. One solution would be a name change. Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop stated on February 7 that "the Coalition reaffirmed its support for the right of an employee to directly negotiate their employment contract with their employer, subject to a no-disadvantage test." In other words, the Coalition has reaffirmed its pre - WorkChoices industrial relations policy, but have dropped the detested AWA title. Holding a majority in the Senate until July, the Coalition is likely to refer the Government's legislation to scrap the previous government's IR laws to a Senate committee, which would anger both the Government and the unions. Any delay to the passage of the legislation will be used the ALP to claim that the Coalition still supports WorkChoices. NELSON NEEDS TO STEP UP ¶6. (C/NF) COMMENT: Facing Rudd in Parliament for the first time, Nelson needs to put in a strong performance to improve his credibility. The media has accused him of procrastination and "flip-flopping" on the "Stolen Generation" issue. His critics say that Nelson has yet to demonstrate the gravitas and authority needed in a leader. However, Tony Abbott and Senate leader Nick Minchin, senior colleagues who supported him in the leadership ballot, have publicly praised his "consultative" style. There will be opportunities for Nelson to score points against Rudd on the Parliament floor. Rudd's "working families" have been hit with another interest rate rise, the Government is cutting spending and the Treasurer has ruled out tax cuts as part of the fight against inflation. But Rudd remains popular and is performing strongly, deflecting the blame for economic circumstances back to the previous government. While Rudd has quickly established himself as a leader, the jury appears still out on Nelson. END COMMENT.