PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER ON AYMAN NOUR,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000976 SIPDIS NSC FOR PASCUAL E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EG SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER ON AYMAN NOUR, COUNTER-TERROR LAW, THE OPPOSITION, AND THE US Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a May 8 introductory call with the Ambassador, Speaker of the People's Assembly Fathi Surour complained about imprisoned former Al Ghad party leader Ayman Nour's "continuous criticism" of the Egyptian government, alleging that it did not allow for the "correct atmosphere" to be created, so that President Mubarak could release him. Surour also warned of the dangers of foreign pressure about Nour's case, asserting that it has a contrary effect on Mubarak. Surour speculated that it is "likely" that rather than passing a new counter-terror law by May 31, the GOE will ask the People's Assembly to re-extend the existing Emergency Law. Surour said he supported the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) becoming a legal political party, but that it first must renounce its "religious slogans." End summary. -------------- THOUGHTS ON U.S.-EGYPTIAN RELATIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) In an overview of U.S.-Egyptian relations, Surour characterized the bilateral relationship as "good," but cited "unconditional U.S. support of Israel" and the complexities of U.S. economic assistance as major stumbling blocks. He urged the U.S. to be clear that "you support peace, not just Israel." Professing to be personally against Egypt accepting U.S. aid on principle, Surour said that increasing population growth nonetheless necessitated Egypt's acceptance of the assistance, "as our economy needs it." Surour characterized both the U.S. and Egypt as being in "transitional periods" - the U.S. due to the coming presidential election, and Egypt, "because it is only three years until the 2011 presidential election, and every political voice is raised high, as everyone wants a 'record' to be able to point to in 2011." Surour was disparaging of "the current atmosphere of criticism that governs Egypt - just look at all of these newspapers and TV channels which incessantly criticize the government." -------------- OPPOSITION DYNAMICS -------------- ¶3. (C) Surour briefly reviewed the variety of Egyptian opposition forces, describing them all as weak, and having neither a clear agenda nor any credibility with the Egyptian public. Musing that he once had thought the liberal Wafd party could be a "real opposition," Surour said that the party was now too divided to play any constructive role. "There is no one but the ruling party that I trust to run this country," he proclaimed, "and if the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) ever got a majority in parliament, if I were president, I would dissolve the People's Assembly the next day." In an exercise of casuistical legerdemain, Surour reasoned that the MB should become a legal political party, but because of existing laws against political parties based on religion, it would need first to renounce its "religious slogans," which would undermine its entire identity and appeal. Surour posited that, in the unlikely event that the MB won a parliamentary majority, the group would never be able to successfully form a government, "as all of the MB parliamentarians are independents, so could not nominate a prime minister, as he would have no formal party backing." (Note: According to Egypt's constitution, the president appoints the prime minister, who subsequently submits a government program to parliament for approval. If a majority of parliament does not approve the government's program, the cabinet then resigns, or the president dissolves the legislature. There is no constitutional requirement that a parliamentary majority backing a prime minister be from a political party. End note). The Ambassador offered that, given the general weakness of Egyptian opposition parties, the U.S. and undoubtedly other international institutions would be happy to provide technical training. She asked to discuss this further at a future meeting. -------------- -- "AYMAN NOUR IS STUPID, AND SO IS MY GOVERNMENT" -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Surour reviewed familiar GOE talking points about Ayman Nour's alleged past crimes, and his "deserved reputation" as a "liar and a fraud." Sounding resentful of the "incomprehensible" U.S. focus on Nour, Surour flagged the "dangers" of foreign pressure: "President Mubarak was thinking previously of releasing Nour, but when he realized that there was foreign pressure to do so, he refused to let Nour go." Surour cited the case of alleged Israeli spy Azzam CAIRO 00000976 002 OF 002 Azzam as further evidence of the contrary effects of outside pressure, saying that "Israel wanted him released, but he was not released until all the fuss died down, and only then did President Mubarak grant him amnesty, along with others. This is how our president behaves." (Note: Azzam was arrested for spying for Israel in 1996, and released after serving eight years of his fifteen-year prison sentence. End note). ¶5. (C) Surour was exercised about Nour's "continuous criticism" of the Egyptian government. "When you are asking the president for a pardon, you cannot simultaneously publicly criticize the president!" Surour claimed that prior to his early March visit to Washington, "I spent half of my pre-departure meeting with President Mubarak urging him to release Nour. Nour subsequently wrote a newspaper article criticizing some public comments I made while in the U.S. The president called me to say, 'That is the nature of the person you tried to defend to me - while you are supporting him, he is ridiculing you!'." The Ambassador made clear that regardless of Egyptian legal justifications, Nour's continued detention gave him international stature and credibility and would continue to be a bilateral problem until his release. Responding to the Ambassador's urging that Nour be granted amnesty on the occasion of Egypt's July 23 holiday (when hundreds of prisoners who have served half of their terms are regularly released),Surour said that forgers are specifically exempted from being eligible for such holiday releases, but that, "of course, everything could be arranged, if only Nour would create the correct atmosphere for it." Throwing up his hands, Surour lamented, "Nour is stupid, and so is my government. I hope that Nour will be released in July, despite all this stupidity." -------------- PENDING LEGISLATION -------------- ¶6. (C) Surour said that several pieces of legislation remain to be passed during the current parliamentary session, which ends late June/early July, citing plans to debate and approve separate laws regarding children's rights, real estate taxes, and traffic safety. When queried by the Ambassador as to the status of the draft counter-terrorism law (previously planned to be passed by May 31),Surour commented, "I do not know if it will be approved this session, as there is no time left to study an important law like this." Surour speculated that it is "likely" that instead of passing the counter-terror law, the GOE will ask the People's Assembly to re-extend the Emergency Law. SCOBEY