LOCAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS

UNCLAS CAIRO 000833 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR PASCUAL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KISL EG SUBJECT: LOCAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS: UNOFFICIAL RESULTS REF: A. CAIRO 389 ¶B. CAIRO 495 ¶C. CAIRO 677 ¶D. CAIRO 693 ¶E. CAIRO 720 Sensitive but unclassified. Not for Internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) To date, no official nationwide results have been announced in Egypt's April 8 local council elections. Reportedly, results are being released governorate by governorate, and will be finalized nationally next week. With only 962 opposition candidates on the ballot country-wide, out of the 52,000 seats up for election, even without formal results, there is no doubt that the ruling National Democratic Party "won" a resounding victory. The press, and our contacts at various opposition parties, report that the liberal Wafd party won 238 seats (out of 507 candidates on the ballot),the socialist Taggamu party won 125 seats (out of 415 candidates on the ballot),the liberal Democratic Front Party won 6 seats (out of 18 on the ballot), the Nasserite party won 14 seats, and the Moussa Mustafa Moussa wing of the Al Ghad party won 6 seats. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB),which at the last minute decided to boycott the elections due to its only being allowed to register 20 candidates (ref D),won no seats. ¶2. (SBU) Our opposition and NGO contacts consider the flawed process surrounding the local elections - especially the barring of thousands of opposition candidates, Islamist and secular, from registering - as a worrisome indicator of what to expect for the 2010 People's Assembly and Shoura Council elections. Independent parliamentarians in particular are concerned; one told us the local council elections were a "dress rehearsal for the 2010 parliamentary elections, when the government will ensure that the ruling party sweeps parliament, and there are far fewer irksome oppositionists in the legislature." ¶3. (SBU) In addition to showcasing the government's diminished tolerance for electoral competition from the MB and secular oppositionists, the April 8 contests also guaranteed that, under the current constitution, the MB will not be able to field a candidate in the next presidential election (currently planned for 2011). Constitutional article 76 states that an independent presidential candidate must obtain endorsements from 250 elected members of Egypt's national and local representative bodies, of which there must be a minimum of 65 endorsements from members of the People's Assembly, 25 from the Shura Council, and 10 from local councils in at least 14 governorates. Not having won any seats on the local councils effectively bars the MB from using this backdoor to contest the presidency. SCOBEY