MUBARAK SPEECH: SLIGHT INCREASE OF PRESSURE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000560 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV IS LE EG SUBJECT: MUBARAK SPEECH: SLIGHT INCREASE OF PRESSURE ON HAMAS Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Stuart Jones Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (SBU) President Mubarak's March 18 Moulid el Nabi (Birthday of the Prophet) speech focused in large part on Islamic values, which Mubarak asserted were under attack both from non-Muslims (i.e. the "blasphemous cartoonists") as well as from radical Muslims who "give a reason for others to accuse us of radicalism and terrorism." Mubarak called for an "active movement" to confront Salafism and radicalism, and called for an "enlightened religious dialogue." Conspicuously absent was any discussion of the Egyptian economy and rising prices, which have featured heavily in the local news as of late. ¶2. (C) During the 15-minute speech, Mubarak restated Egypt's view on the centrality of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to regional stability. He called on the Palestinian people to "end the suffering" of their sons through the legitimate establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. In a mild brush at Hamas, Mubarak said that while resistance is a legitimate right of any people under occupation, such resistance will be judged by whether it results in benefits or losses. "Give peace a chance," Mubarak said. (MFA Director for Palestinian Affairs told us March 19 that the intent of this passage was to convey to the Palestinians that "firing rockets into Israel brings negative consequences for the Palestinian people and is therefore not effective resistance.") Mubarak called on both Israel and the Palestinians to fulfill their responsibilities for successful peace negotiations and said that the U.S. also bears responsibility for the two-state solution as a sponsor of the Annapolis meeting. ¶3. (C) On March 17, Presidential Spokesman Soliman Awad reportedly pre-briefed Egyptian journalists on this speech. He claimed that Mubarak's speech would be aimed at Hamas, and added that the press needs to understand that Syria and Iran are using Hamas and the Palestinian situation to the detriment of Egypt. Awad reportedly mentioned Khaled Mishal specifically as a Syrian tool. For these reasons, he told the journalists that Mubarak would not attend the Arab League Summit of March 28-30 in Damascus. ¶4. (C) However, MFA Spokesman Hossam Zaki told us March 19 to "take the speech at face value." Mubarak, he said, had deliberately focused on Islam and the peace process, and denied any "dialing back" by Mubarak. "I wouldn't read too much into it," Zaki said, and that Mubarak had not said anything "really new," nor had he planned to. ¶5. (C) Comment: Mubarak mentioned neither Hamas nor the Arab League Summit in his speech. In a March 19 meeting, Ezzedine Shukry, a senior MFA official currently on leave and serving as Director of the International Crisis Group's Israel-Palestine project, surmised that the speech may have been changed following Awad's briefing to the journalists, or alternatively, that Awad had attempted to "pre-spin" the speech by providing subtext to the journalists. "Soliman Awad is very cautious and would not have given such a briefing absent clear instructions." Shukry assessed that the GOE continues to seek to be viewed concurrently as "Jordan" by the west, and as "Syria" (i.e. "Arab Champion") by its own people. We believe that Mubarak's speech, which broke little new ground, reflects a continuing effort to manage this dichotomy. RICCIARDONE