ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000505 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV LE SY EG SUBJECT: ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT UPDATE REF: CAIRO 481 Classified By: Minister Counselor William R. Stewart Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) The expected number of Arab heads of state at the March 28-30 Arab League Summit in Damascus may be increasing. MFA Cabinet Advisor Nazih Neggary told us March 13 that the Egyptian Embassy in Damascus had reported that the Syrian MFA had very recently briefed Arab ambassadors in Damascus on summit preparation details. Syrian FM Moallam, who had opened the meeting, told the group that 14 (unspecified) heads of state had accepted the Syrian invitation to attend the summit. In addition, the Syrians had decided that no non-Arab delegations would attend, including Iran and Turkey; the Syrians reportedly told the Arab ambassadors that the summit is "an Arab summit for Arabs only." Neggary commented that the non-attendance of the Iranians would make it easier for some Arab heads of state (i.e. Libya - reftel) to attend. ¶2. (C) Neggary had no new information on Egyptian attendance beyond what FM Aboul Gheit told us last week (reftel). He claimed that the GOE is facing increasing domestic pressure for Mubarak's attendance at the summit, on the rationale that Egypt must maintain its traditional Arab leadership role on key issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Lebanon. Note: We have not observed explicit calls in the local media for Mubarak to attend, and will continue to monitor. End note. ¶3. (C) Neggary commented that the Israeli military response to Hamas rockets of early March had changed the momentum on summit attendance 180 degrees; the Syrians continue to play the "Arab unity" card to great effect. He acknowledged that the USG had kept a "low-profile" on summit attendance, but said that the Syrian camp was nevertheless portraying the issue as driven by the Americans. Neggary assessed that with possibly more than half of the Arab heads of state now planning to attend, the Syrians may have determined that the need for guest heads of state, such as Iranian President Ahmadinejad, was no longer necessary to balance the possible absence of key Arab heads of state. ¶4. (C) For their part, Arab League officials do not appear concerned about the attendance level. Secretary General Moussa told Ambassador and visiting NEA PDAS Feltman March 10 that he expected between 9 and 12 heads of state, approximately the same as had attended the 2006 summit in Khartoum, and that this was "perfectly normal." A follow-up call to Arab League Chief of Staff Hisham Yousef on March 13 yielded no new information; Yousef said that Syria -- not the Arab League -- was responsible for managing the invitations and acceptances to the summit. RICCIARDONE