A/S WELCH MARCH 6 MEETING WITH OMANI FM YUSUF BIN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 000466 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA AND NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2018 TAGS: PREL KPAL PTER EG IS XF OM SUBJECT: A/S WELCH MARCH 6 MEETING WITH OMANI FM YUSUF BIN ALAWI Classified By: ECPO Minister-Counselor William R. Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (S) Omani Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi told A/S Welch during their March 6 meeting that the Israelis and Palestinians must "solve their own problems." The U.S. is not to blame ) "you have tried your hardest" ) but Israel has been given chance after chance and squandered them all. Oman has worked hard and paid a price over many years of trying to find peace in the Middle East ) all to no avail. The parties themselves must work out their own solutions. "I've been doing this a lot longer than you have ) and nothing in all these years has changed." End summary. -------------- Halting Hamas -------------- ¶2. (S) Assistant Secretary Welch briefed FM Yusuf bin Alawi on the Secretary's recent meetings with the Israelis and Palestinians. He outlined that the Israelis have two goals for Gaza: stopping rocket attacks on Israel, and preventing Hamas from rebuilding itself. The Egyptians are active in restoring calm. While we do not want to legitimize Hamas, someone must make clear that their actions harm the Palestinian people. A/S Welch noted that there are some in Israel who prefer a more dramatic solution in Gaza. This view is not shared by Israeli PM Olmert, who made it clear that if the rocket attacks on Israel stop, there will be no invasion of Gaza. LTG Fraser will soon convene the first trilateral security meeting as part of implementing the Road Map; people must see a difference. -------------- -------------- YBA: "Don't Blame The United States; Blame Israel" -------------- -------------- ¶3. (S) Bin Alawi began his remarks by noting that, "We have been busy at the Arab League these days, but as always, it was of no value." Commenting on Israel-Palestine, Bin Alawi said that no one should blame the U.S. for what is happening ) "you have tried your hardest." Rather, they should blame Israel, which has been given chance after chance and squandered them all. No one should underestimate the Arabs, Bin Alawi said. "We may be very friendly but we are also very tough." Israel makes excuses for the actions it takes, but the Arab street sees through this. Israeli PM Olmert is "worried about his position, but not about peace." Simply saying no rockets, no attack, "completely misses the point," which is: when will Israel end its occupation of Palestine? ¶4. (S) Oman has made a "big investment" in peace over the years, Bin Alawi continued. We have pushed for peace, but so far "there has been no response. There is no peace, only war." There are limits to what we as a government can do. Eventually we will lose control of the street. Israel needs a "shock" to wake up. For the first time, the Arab League has debated taking back the Arab Peace Initiative. In response to A/S Welch's query as to what exactly that meant, Bin Alawi said, "It means that we must tell our people there is no peace with Israel." The final decision on whether or not to do so, he said, has been reserved for the upcoming Arab League summit in Damascus. -------------- Israeli Withdrawal: The Only Way Forward -------------- ¶5. (S) The only way forward, Bin Alawi said, is for Israel to set a timetable for withdrawal from the occupied territories. "That would change the entire situation." But until now, Bin Alawi noted, there is no withdrawal and no stopping the Israeli settlements. President Bush did not just promise Arab governments there would be two-states by the end of his term, he promised the Arab people. "Israel has said no (to President Bush) publicly. Olmert himself said there won't be two states." A/S Welch corrected Bin Alawi -- Olmert actually said it would be difficult, but not impossible. Bin Alawi replied: "If Olmert were really Bush's friend, he would not say such things in public." ¶6. (S) A/S Welch asked Bin Alawi what option he proposed. "Let the situation correct itself," Bin Alawi said. If Israel wants to stay there, let it stay there. If they want CAIRO 00000466 002 OF 003 to build settlements, let them -- they have power; they can do what they want. The time for liberation -- or withdrawal -- will come when it comes. Fighting Hamas, Bin Alawi opined, only gives it legitimacy and strengthens the fundamentalists. Israel is defending itself at the cost of peace. But why not give the Palestinians the same right of self-defense? A/S Welch stressed that many Palestinians do not agree that shooting rockets at Israel is the best form of self-defense. How else shall they protect themselves, Bin Alawi asked. The Palestinians sought protection from the international community and got nothing. A/S Welch pushed back that Gaza is not under attack; Israel is. But Gaza is under siege, Bin Alawi responded. -------------- Nothing Ever Changes In The Middle East -------------- ¶7. (S) The objective for everyone, according to Bin Alawi, should be peace. But the only chance for peace is for Israel to commit "tomorrow" to a timetable for withdrawal, and then implement it. "If they do this, not only Israel will be against Hamas, but all the Arabs, too." But since such a promise is highly unlikely, Bin Alawi mused, "what will happen?" Bin Alawi apologized for being so blunt, "but we are friends, and we must tell our friends what we see as facts." A/S Welch said that it appeared we did not agree on what those facts were: "You seem to be putting all the blame on one party." That is because only one party is an occupier, Bin Alawi retorted, "over people with no power." A/S Welch stressed that the United States believes that Israel is committed to changing that; Bin Alawi said, "We'll see." The trouble is, he suggested, that "nothing ever changes in the Middle East." When decade after decade passes with no improvement, it gives rise to extremism. "That's what brought Hamas." -------------- Palestine and Lebanon Linked -------------- ¶8. (S) Turning to Lebanon, A/S Welch complained that the Arabs have given a free hand to Syria and Iran. He asked if there were an Arab League consensus on the way forward. There is no consensus, Bin Alawi asserted, and there will not be a consensus until the Palestinian problem is solved. A/S Welch questioned the linkage of the two issues. The non-consensus you see on Lebanon, Bin Alawi explained, will spread and increase because Arab governments have handed the issue to the people. "You want democracy? This is democracy." People express their views. When you insisted the Palestinians hold elections, they voted for Hamas, which you did not like. ¶9. (S) As for Lebanon, Bin Alawi went on, there are 300,000 to 400,000 Palestinians refugees living there. "You don't think they have an impact on what happens in Lebanon?" The fact is that Syria now controls much of what happens in Lebanon, not the Lebanese people, A/S Welch said. Bin Alawi disagreed; "the problem is the Lebanese are divided among themselves." That is why there has not been a presidential election yet. The president in Lebanon is elected by the parliament, not the people, and the members of parliament disagree. But the Lebanese need a president "in the chair." He is the custodian of the constitution, and without a president, Bin Alawi averred, "every Lebanese becomes a president." No one wants this to continue. Our job and your job, Bin Alawi stressed, is to encourage the Lebanese people and political leaders to elect a president. -------------- Syria, Lebanon's "Neighbor and Brother" -------------- ¶10. (S) A/S Welch said that Syria stands in the way of electing a president. Leave Syria alone, Bin Alawi advised; the AL has decided to send SYG Amre Moussa to go again to Beirut and try to "make a deal." As for the Syrians, "they are Lebanon's brothers and neighbors; let them work out their differences together." A/S Welch pushed back: the Syrians are the reason Lebanon has not been able to elect a president. They see the consensus candidate as a threat to them, which is nonsense. However, A/S Welch continued, it is not nonsense to say Syria is a very real threat to Lebanon. "Why should we worry if they go to war -- or peace?" Bin Alawi responded. "Let them." -------------- Kosovo -------------- CAIRO 00000466 003 OF 003 ¶11. (C) A/S Welch asked what Oman's position on Kosovo was. "That's a European issue," Bin Alawi answered. "Leave it there." ¶12. (U) A/S Welch did not have an opportunity to clear this message. RICCIARDONE