EGIS CHIEF "NOT OPTIMISTIC" ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR

S E C R E T CAIRO 002320

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
TAGS: PREL KPAL IS EG
SUBJECT: EGIS CHIEF "NOT OPTIMISTIC" ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR
PALESTINIAN RECONCILIATION

Classified by Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (S) SUMMARY: In a November 5 meeting, EGIS Chief Omar
Soliman told Ambassador that he was "not optimistic" about
prospects for Palestinian reconciliation, due to continuing
differences between Hamas and Fatah and the difficulty in
maintaining the continuing "calm" between minimalist Hamas
and Israel. He does expect the Palestinian factions to sign
on to a declaration of principles on November 10 but is less
sanguine about the prospects for agreement on details of
implementation. He is also not optimistic about Cpl Shalit's
release absent movement from the Israeli government about the
release of Palestinian prisoners. Soliman also said that
Egyptian President Mubarak hopes to visit Washington in the
spring, and promised to push visiting Iraqi Minister of State
for National Security Sharwan Wa'ili to reach an agreement on
the SOFA with the U.S. END SUMMARY.


2. (S/NF) Ambassador Scobey called on EGIS Chief Omar
Soliman on November 5, accompanied by ORA chief and econ
counselor (notetaker). Soliman congratulated the Ambassador
on the election, and hoped President-elect Barack Obama would
"consider Egypt an ally and friend." He indicated Egyptian
President Mubarak would like to visit Washington, DC early in
the new Administration "to make a strong case for good
relations" between Egypt and the United States.


3. (S) The Ambassador asked about next steps in the
Palestinian reconciliation process. Soliman explained his
main concerns about prospects for reconciliation, the need to
maintain the "calm" between Israel and Hamas, and the
differences between Abu Mazen and Hamas.


4. (S) Soliman reported an Israeli incursion into Gaza about
8:30 p.m. local time on November 4. He said the Israelis
discovered the Gazans digging a tunnel near the Kerem Shalom
border point and decided to destroy it and a house at the end
of the tunnel. When they entered the house, they found
several Palestinians. The Israelis shot and killed six.
There were also some women and children, some of whom were
injured. The Israeli troops took the injured women back to
Israeli with them to Israeli for medical treatment. He said
Amos Gilad assured him the Israelis had not kidnapped the
women, and that they would be returned to Gaza on November 5.
The Palestinians, Soliman reported, were "shocked" by the
Israeli incursion and launched some rockets. Soliman said
the Israelis would not respond, as long as the Palestinians
did not fire any more rockets.

PALESTINIAN RECONCILIATION
--------------

5. (S) Soliman said there are many differences between the
Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas. Hamas, he said, is
"ruling the strip, and has demolished the PA in Gaza. They
are not suffering, they are not under Israeli threat, they
have all the materials and goods, and all is quiet." Under
these circumstances, Hamas does not see why they should
concede anything. In Soliman's view, however, they have no
legitimacy, in the Gaza strip "people hate them" because of
the sanctions, and the lack of jobs. They are "suffering"
from the lack of recognition, inability to travel and "not
being received" by the international community. There is
also an impact on Hamas supporters in the West Bank. Soliman
pointed out that they cannot participate in society, and are
under considerable pressure from the PA, subject to arrest,
unable to work, and with their associations and institutions
closed. Hamas is unhappy with Egypt, he said, because "they
do not feel that we receive them well." They are restricted
to EGIS headquarters and the border, and they cannot go
anywhere else in Egypt. So, Soliman believes, Hamas will
eventually agree to reconciliation to give them legitimacy
and to allow their people to participate in West Bank life.


6. (S) Soliman outlined the principles underlying the
proposed reconciliation as follows:

--that the Palestinians will form a new, independent
government committed to the Quartet principles;
--that a new, independent national Gaza security force, not
composed of the factions, will be created, with Egypt
responsible for recruiting its officers;
--that there will be new elections for president of the
Palestinian Authority and a legislative council when the
conditions are "good;" and
--that the "calm" should continue.

Without the calm, he said, there is no deal. Soliman
reported that all the factions have agreed to these
conditions and will sign a declaration of principles on
November 10.


7. (S) Originally, the EGIS chief said, his paper outlining
the principles contained considerable detail, but those were
widely criticized, and Hamas had refused to attend the
November 10 meeting unless it was changed. To obtain
agreement for a November 10 signature, Soliman stripped the
principles of the details. This, he said, made PA President
Abbas unhappy but was the only way forward. In Soliman's
judgment, given the level of disagreement, to include the
details at the November 10 meeting would cause considerable
disagreement and likely allow the media to describe the
meetings as a "big failure." Instead, a meeting at which all
the factions sign off on the four principles is much more
likely to be successful, and seen as "good news."


8. (S) Now, he said, the plan is to have three-four days of
meetings starting November 23, at which time the factions
will begin to discuss implementation of the four main
principles. Discussions will take place within a framework
of six committees to discuss:
--an end to the separation between Gaza and the West Bank;
--formation of a new government;
--new elections;
--reform of the security services, including creation of a
national service; and
--reactivation of the PLO.


9. (S) The sixth committee, to be headed Saudi Foreign
Minister Saud al-Faisal, the head of the Arab League
committee for the Palestinians, will monitor and facilitate
the work of the other committees. Arab League Secretary
General Amr Moussa will also be involved in appointing heads
of the other five committees. Soliman believes some of the
committees will succeed in reaching agreement, and hopes that
differences can be isolated to one or two committees.


10. (S) Egypt has also invited Syria, Jordan and the Arab
League. He does not know who will attend at this point.
Hamas will be represented by Khalid Mishal, while Nabil
Shaath will represent Fatah. Abbas will give a speech, and
Mishal wanted to as well, but Soliman has said no, on the
grounds that Abbas will be representing the entire PA, while
Mishal is only representing one of the factions.


11. (S) Soliman is, however "not optimistic" about prospects
for success. Hamas does not want to lose power in Gaza, and
so it will create many difficulties. The Israelis are not
very supportive, as they do not want to see Hamas gain any
legitimacy. Also, he said, the situation in Gaza will not
change very quickly, because Hamas will either continue to
have a say "or they will come back." The Ambassador asked
how Syria would react. Soliman agreed Syria had said four
years ago that they would not allow a deal between Israelis
and the Palestinians before Syria had its own deal with
Israel. He added that Iran has told Hamas "we are paying you
$50 million a month. If you participate in the government we
will continue to pay you. If you do not participate in the
government, it means that you have given in to the PA and we
will end the payments." For these reasons, Soliman said, he
is not optimistic but added "we have to try." If the plan
fails, he said "we will blame Hamas. The Palestinian people
have to feel that choosing Hamas was a bad choice. Then, if
we have elections, next year, we hope, Hamas will lose."

NEW GAZA SECURITY FORCE
--------------

12. (S) The EGIS chief explained that Egypt would be very
careful in strengthening the security forces, that the forces
will be "very close to us," and will "have no access to
Hamas." If this works, he said, Egypt will re-open Rafah.
The Palestinians would support this, if it keeps the border
open, and would be angered by any Hamas action that would
risk the closure of the border, or the reintroduction of
Hamas.

RELEASE OF CORPORAL SHALIT
--------------

13. (S) Soliman said the release of Israeli soldier Cpl
Shalit depended on the Israeli government making a decision
about potential release of Palestinian prisoners. He said
that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak had told him he was
working on this, but that the Israeli government was not
ready. Soliman was not optimistic about chances for Shalit's
release without a strong Israeli offer on Palestinian
prisoners.


14. (S) The Ambassador underlined that the President and
Secretary Rice want to keep working on the peace process
issues, and that even if they are not resolved before the end
of the Bush Administration, they want to make as much
progress as possible, with the parties fully engaged, and a
sense of urgency about the talks. Soliman agreed that this
would be very positive, and said that he hoped the new Obama

Administration would have "a platform to launch" from. He
observed that Secretary Rice has done a lot of work on this


and that "it will not take much work to get a deal,"
depending on the new Israeli government.

IRAQI SOFA
--------------

15. (S) Solimon said that Iraqi Minister of State for
National Security Sharwan Wa'ili is visiting, and the
Ambassador urged Soliman to encourage Iraq to conclude the
SOFA, making clear that Egypt would support their decision.
Soliman said that Egypt has told the Iraqis that they need
the U.S., and that the agreement will not "be for all time"
but that Iraq needs it until they are ready to take on the
security on their own. He responded that he did "not
understand what they are thinking" and promised to push
Wa'ili to make a decision.
SCOBEY